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UFC on ABC 5: Josh Emmett vs. Ilia Topuria, Jacksonville, Florida, June 24

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UFC on ABC 5: Josh Emmett vs. Ilia Topuria

https://twitter.com/hashtag/UFCJacksonville?src=hashtag_click&f=live

UFC Fight Night Jacksonville, Florida

Saturday, June 24, 2023

https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/99780-ufc-fight-night
https://www.tapology.com/forum/threads/72978

https://www.tapology.com/fightcente...ht-josh-cc0-emmett-vs-ilia-el-matador-topuria

https://fightodds.io/odds/4668/ufc-on-abc-5-emmett-vs-topuria
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https://fightodds.io/odds/4668/ufc-on-abc-5-emmett-vs-topuria

https://twitter.com/hashtag/UFCJacksonville?src=hashtag_click&f=live
 
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Kleydson Rodrigues at +290 is very tempting !!…. I get he’s fighting a grappling phenom but grapplers eventually get knocked the fuck out when they can’t get the takedowns…..

Tafa at -125 seems like good value aswell
 
Leaning:
Ilia Topuria, younger and faster. Likely tko.
Amanda Ribas, just the better fighter imo.
Odds are wide though.
 
I bet Kleydson Rodrigues @ +475.

Havent taped the fight yet but I have seen most of both guys professional fights and think theres a huge striking advantage for Rodrigues and have seen him defend takedowns against better wrestlers than Taira.
 
UFCIsNOTRigged said:
I bet Kleydson Rodrigues @ +475.

Havent taped the fight yet but I have seen most of both guys professional fights and think theres a huge striking advantage for Rodrigues and have seen him defend takedowns against better wrestlers than Taira.
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You got him @+475? That sounds crazy good? I'm thinking there is still value on him @+275 right now.
 
Got Tafa. Lane has a glass jaw.

Like Jenkins and Rowe
 
mkess101 said:
Looked so slow compared to Yair...I get the odds are wide but Topuria is so much the real deal. Speed edge is gonna be huge, better grappler...I think this is gonna look every bit as one sided as the odds say it should.
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i wouldn't say slow, he was just out of range the whole fight. yair's got some of the fastest kicks in the sport, and he couldn't get past them for the majority of the contest. he looked good against kattar before that, in a boxing fight with 4 ounce gloves. showed some nice head movement. styles make fights, and his current ml is value even if i think ilia is the rightful favorite. they are both small stocky dudes with dynamite in their hands, who are likely to stand and bang. upset is def possible.

FDGTD a lock, under 2.5 would be nice, dunno if it'll be available in my book tho. Ilia is a kill or be killed fighter, his cardio won't hold up for more than 2,3 rds.
 
Jasper_RB81 said:
You got him @+475? That sounds crazy good? I'm thinking there is still value on him @+275 right now.
Click to expand...

When the fight was announced I suspected Taira would be opened too high. Its just one of those fights where their respective records on paper are misleading. I bet the line when it opened hence the inflated odds.

I haven't looked into the fight yet but I agree with you there probably is still value on Rodrigues at +275. He is one of those fighters whose athleticism can compensate for technical holes. At the very least I think he has a huge advantage on the feet and he has shown an ability to defend takedowns against good wrestlers.
 
theTKDguy said:
i wouldn't say slow, he was just out of range the whole fight. yair's got some of the fastest kicks in the sport, and he couldn't get past them for the majority of the contest. he looked good against kattar before that, in a boxing fight with 4 ounce gloves. showed some nice head movement. styles make fights, and his current ml is value even if i think ilia is the rightful favorite. they are both small stocky dudes with dynamite in their hands, who are likely to stand and bang. upset is def possible.

FDGTD a lock, under 2.5 would be nice, dunno if it'll be available in my book tho. Ilia is a kill or be killed fighter, his cardio won't hold up for more than 2,3 rds.
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Maybe slow is the wrong word yeah...tentative probably more accurate. Emmett looked okay vs Kattar but I still thought he lost (albeit the fight was extremely close--Kattar more volume and Josh the bigger moments).

Ilia probably too juiced to play but I'm not exactly jumping to bet Emmett either.
 
UFCIsNOTRigged said:
When the fight was announced I suspected Taira would be opened too high. Its just one of those fights where their respective records on paper are misleading. I bet the line when it opened hence the inflated odds.

I haven't looked into the fight yet but I agree with you there probably is still value on Rodrigues at +275. He is one of those fighters whose athleticism can compensate for technical holes. At the very least I think he has a huge advantage on the feet and he has shown an ability to defend takedowns against good wrestlers.
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Bet365 has him @+300 right now, I took that for half a unit. Not the most confident play, but the hype around Taira is overblown in my opinion. He is good, but not sure he is that good and Kleydson is no joke.

Great play on the opener.
 
Might take Chepe against Peek depending on the odds.
 
Jasper_RB81 said:
Bet365 has him @+300 right now, I took that for half a unit. Not the most confident play, but the hype around Taira is overblown in my opinion. He is good, but not sure he is that good and Kleydson is no joke.

Great play on the opener.
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Your most confident play is a +300 dog? And you only put half a unit on it? Good luck
 
When the fight was announced I leaned Emmett so I’ll gladly take +250. Would be more confident if I knew he’d wrestle at all as Mitchell got Topuria down pretty easily and maintained top control for the remainder of the round. I also question Topuria’s cardio and I already know Emmett has the tank for 5 Rounds.
 
Mateusz Rębecki vs Loik Radzhabov is a banger of fight. Really excited for that one.

I think Radzhabov was pretty impressive in his UFG debut, very aggressive in R1, but faded a bit as the fight went on. That fight was on short notice though. Can't remember how short it was so that's a bit of a pass for slowing down i guess.

Rębecki was also impressive in his debut, although competition was not the best but he handled business quite easy. I was really impressed with him. He also slowed down a bit as the fight went on but the pace in R1 was furious and he really tried his best to get Fiore out of there. Can't really blame him for slowing down a bit in R3.

Both has really solid power and both are tough as nails so I think this fight will be a lot about who has the gas tank to push their pace for the full fight. I think this will be an absolute banger.

Right now I'm leaning Rębecki, but Radzhabov is a really good fighter.

Any thoughts?
 
StewDogg11 said:
When the fight was announced I leaned Emmett so I’ll gladly take +250. Would be more confident if I knew he’d wrestle at all as Mitchell got Topuria down pretty easily and maintained top control for the remainder of the round. I also question Topuria’s cardio and I already know Emmett has the tank for 5 Rounds.
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???

Mitchell is a relentless grappler and was 1 for 9 on TD attempts. Had like a minute of control time. And Ilia made him wilt within 2 rounds. Emmett has never tried to push a grappling pace so thinking he could even try that and still have 5 rounds of gas seems like a complete unknown imo.

I was small on Thugnasty vs Ilia but after that fight I'm all in on Ilia being a straight up beast. Not saying I'd play his ML at this price because Emmett still has that power that can end a fight at any time, but I do favor Ilia here and by a pretty wide margin.
 
mkess101 said:
???

Mitchell is a relentless grappler and was 1 for 9 on TD attempts. Had like a minute of control time. And Ilia made him wilt within 2 rounds. Emmett has never tried to push a grappling pace so thinking he could even try that and still have 5 rounds of gas seems like a complete unknown imo.

I was small on Thugnasty vs Ilia but after that fight I'm all in on Ilia being a straight up beast. Not saying I'd play his ML at this price because Emmett still has that power that can end a fight at any time, but I do favor Ilia here and by a pretty wide margin.
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5 rounds and both have power ….. no money lines here …. Take one to finish for much better value
 
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