UFC Nightmare Scenarios 2016

[AronaBeatsJones]

FULL ARTICLE: http://mma-manifesto.com/2016-articles/ufc-in-2016-nightmare-scenarios.html

THE LIST:

1. Mass Exodus
2. In USADA We Trust
3. Antitrust
4. Bellator Rising

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As far as other nightmare scenarios, I don't think the Reebok deal can get any worse, but I could be wrong. They could perhaps start restricting sponsorships outside of competition in favour for adding a secondary sponsor (in addition to Reebok), but I think at this point, it won't do as much damage as the initial Reebok deal did.

The FTC can always re-open their investigation into UFC's business practices.

A major loss of talent/retirement like Rousey leaving, or McGregor starting his own promotion is always a possibility.

And obviously, a death or serious injury in the octagon is an event-to-event fear, but the UFC has been proactive in minimizing the possibility of this with the recent crackdown on weightcutting (which was a major factor in the recent ONE FC death).

 

[Arm Barbarian]

McG quits and starts his own org.

 

[Bogeyman]

Bellator rising like a flooding toilet full of diarrhea.

 

[BarryMazzagatti]

what is this half glass empty shit? How about we have a positive outlook on things. We just saw the circus shitshow that Bellator is. For the sake of MMA, we should all hope UFC stays alive and flourishes.

 

[SherdogGoat]

Conor wins the lw belt and gets injured

 

[Sonny Qc]

2016 nightmare scenario
CM Punk doesn't fight in 2016

 

[ajccoming]

One nightmare scenario to me would be finding out the McGregors last 3 opponents took dives to ensure Connor would win the belt. Obviously this isn't true but I think it would kill Zuffa if anything like this ever came out...

 

[GoldenAzazel]

I can see the comparisons between Bellator and WCW. They both grab has-been's and seem to give them main event spots over younger and more exciting talent.

 

[jx820]

With Tito, Rampage, Josh Thompson, Bendo, and Phil Davis all going to Bellator, and Kimbo (sadly) continuing to be a big draw and more fighters than ever fighting out their contracts, an antitrust is not likely. That's not even taking into account the fact that an antitrust would assume MMA to be a stand alone industry which I'm not sure the courts would accept. If it is considered to be a part of a larger "sports entertainment" industry, then it's not even clear the UFC would be a large player let alone one so large it needs to be broken up.

Bellator will continue to grow, but it's not a nightmare scenario. Most of the top talent will not leave in their prime even if Bellator continues to grow. Factors like legacy, a legitimate claim to being the best, PPV bonuses, and visibility outside the immediate mma fanbase will all factor into those decisions and they all favor the UFC for the bigger, or up and coming stars. Bellator will likely continue to be where fighters go once they have established their market value and are on the tail end of their physical capabilities.

 

[jx820]

McG quits and starts his own org.

Conor is not likely to start his own org, and if he did it wouldn't be anywhere on the order of what the UFC is doing. First of all, between Bellator and the UFC the top 700 - 800 fighters in the world are all tied up in contracts, so any new org is going to have to build stars from the ground up. Second, and far more important, is money. If Conor invested every dime to his name and got 5 investors to match his investment you still wouldn't have an org 1/10 the size of the UFC in market power.

 

[L0ki]

The Bellator card wasn't very good but they have put on awesome shows in the past, no doubt.

We've seen just about every org have a sub par event.

They're doing well by co-promoting with Glory and Rizin and by snatching up solid talent.

They have a ways to go but they're headed in the right direction and treat their fighters well enough and generally put on good enough shows to be legitimate competition to the UFC.

 

[The Schmoop]

With Ronda, Page and Sage all losing I can only imagine Conor losing both belts would severely wad the panties of Dana and Lorenzo. The eldest boy of Dana's Royal Family is the only one left to be derailed, which will be no small order for anyone. Winter is coming for House White.

 

[StiG85]

The ONLY thing I see is the Reebok deal.

Think about it. The mass-exodus and Bellator rising are all a result of the reebok deal. People leave (the exodus), mainly to Bellator (rising) because of the $$$ the reebok deal takes away from the fighters.

Hopefully, Reebok will re-adjust their payouts in the near future. UFC will need to step up their fighter payouts too, and maybe release some "filler" fighters so they don't have to pay those fighters, opening up more budget too add to the payout of the fighters they still have. (Ino it probably doesn't really work that way, but just my 2 cents)


And McG making his own organization.. Pff, so what? Who will fight there? It's not that all of a sudden, he's gonna have a pool of top fighters in the world, or even the budget to start his own Promotion.

 

[BobsyaUncle]

A death in a Bellator freakshow fight, followed by a more widespread condemnation of MMA is a bigger threat than the Bellator organisation itself.

 

[rjmbrd]

2014 was a horrible year for Zuffa. What turned around in 2015 - huge PPV revenues because of Conor and Rousey.

Either of them not participating in PPV events in 2016 is really bad. Both of them not participating would be a 'nightmare' scenario.

It looks like Rousey is taking an extended absence which is tough on revenues. If Conor gets injured, 2016 will be a big dip.

This is the two fold problem of 1) relying on PPV as your biggest single source of revenues and 2) investing all of your energy and marketing power into a handful of fighters

 

[AronaBeatsJones]

Conor is not likely to start his own org, and if he did it wouldn't be anywhere on the order of what the UFC is doing. First of all, between Bellator and the UFC the top 700 - 800 fighters in the world are all tied up in contracts, so any new org is going to have to build stars from the ground up. Second, and far more important, is money. If Conor invested every dime to his name and got 5 investors to match his investment you still wouldn't have an org 1/10 the size of the UFC in market power.

He doesn't need to assemble a deep roster. He could literally have a card filled top-down with <.500 fighters, and as long as he's headlining it, the undercard wouldn't make much of a dent on the overall PPV performance (assuming it would be on PPV).

Then again, McGregor likely won't be pulling in 1,000,000 PPV buys on his own merits without the UFC's marketing machine.

But even if he does 1/5th of that, and ends up with a lion's share of the PPV cut (+ live gate, international distribution, etc), it might still be worth it financially (especially if he wants easier fights eventually), but I think all of McGregor's talk of starting up his own organization is a smokescreen for having better leveraging power when negotiating with the UFC. McGregor knows how to play the game.

 

[maxi diablo]

conor,holm,cain,northcutt lose their next fights.

Rothwell vs Nelson for the HW title.
PVZ goes into porn.
Ronda retires and does B-movies.
Anderson comes out of the closet.
First death in the ufc.

 

[mjmj]

A death in a Bellator freakshow fight, followed by a more widespread condemnation of MMA is a bigger threat than the Bellator organisation itself.

Excellent point, with more thought and common sense than most of that article. Saturday night was an embarrassment for all of MMA, not just Bellator. People that see clips on blooper highlights (and it will show up there) will think that’s MMA.

 

[Slaptastic]

2016 Nightmare scenario:
Antitrust lawsuits uncovers unsavory details... The UFC is penalized, the fighters no show and the fans tap out.

 

[Defeat Unknown]

The current matchmaking trends are a nightmare and I don't see them improving any time soon.