UFC FOX 22 - PVS vs Waterson - Sacramento

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I know the judges are hired by the AC and not the UFC, but if you at all believe in the UFC having any influence on scores you gotta believe that no way in fucking hell do they want Cole Miller winning. The way he's talking about the UFC, they'd like him to lose and then they'll just let him go. They damn sure don't want Rogan sticking a mic in his face after the fight.

Hirota probably isn't stopping Cole, but I'm gonna hit his dec line at +205. Not as good as I'd like, but given Cole's seemingly shit attitude about fighting (along with what I mentioned above--which I don't even know how much stock I myself put in LOL but whatever) I think it's worth a stab. Not much, but .4u on that one.

I don't think UFC cares. They probably won't have Rogan interview him but thats about it. Its not like with a win he gets any leverage.
 
Anyone has intel on why so much money has been coming in on Holtzman?

I thought Emmett looked great in his debut and he's fighting here at home with a lot of support. Looks like the better fighter to me shit.

I'm guessing it's related to the injury concerns. It was mentioned earlier in the thread that he's coming off shoulder surgery and he still can't make a fist after what happened to his finger against Tuck.
 
Alright mate. I want to give you some constructive general feedback. So I hope that you will both READ and LISTEN what I have to say to you. First of all, I respect your knowledge and insight in this sport, that you can use for some good analyzing, but sometimes you come across as a 8th grade bully when you're presenting your arguments. Once you pick a fighter your EGO takes over. I don't get that at all, when we're supposed to have a close to objectively as possible debate about the fights.

Regarding the Jouban vs. Perry fight. It makes sense to find all the arguments needed when putting down a big bet on a fighter, but that still doesn't make it more rational. Of course I don't know if you really want to help and inform people about betting advice, but you make it hard for me to believe you sometimes.

Im a fan of Jouban and dislike Perry. Because of Jouban being a underdog and my biasedness, i've put down a small stab on Jouban ML. I rather play the fight ending in TKO/KO since I know that Perry very likely could stop Jouban.
When that is said and done, I still think (as objectively as possible) that this is Jouban's fight to loose. Perry has all the chances in the world to win against a big part of the division WHEN his opponents are willing to fight a dog fight with him. This is where he thrives, and this is why im saying that this is Jouban's fight to loose, because he often find himself in a dog fight, even though he doesn't has to be in one.

Perry has the power, but he swings so wild at times, and really gives zero fucks about setting up his punches. As long as he can fight a dog fight and trade in the pocket, he knows that he can win at any given moment. I don't think that you rationally have thought about that some of the fighters that dropped Jouban was langy tall fighters and was because of his willingness to not give a fuck. This is just a fact. I don't see Perry dropping Jouban or stop him, IF Jouban just stay at his own comfortable range and not in the pocket.

When you're so comitted to call the above fighters low level fighters (LOL), why not throw Roberts in there as well? Roberts has really underperformed IMO, and shown every bit of what you shouldn't do in a fight, like the last one against Perry. Perry only won that because of Roberts fuck ups, and this is, if we measure by your standards, a low level fighter. This is exactly why I think there are some holes in your arguments, when you, without hesitating, stating some of your "obvious" arguments without spending 1 second to explain the negative sides to your own bet/pick. It's soooo mind bogling to me, that you call Belal a overrated fighter. We both know that you only do that because of his recent KO loss. It doesn't make any sence. I think that Belal would absolutely pick Perry apart with his technical way of fighting. You simply cannot remove the already proven skills of a fighter, just because of a KO loss. If Jouban pace himself he will most likely win over Perry like he did against Belal.

When all this is said and done, I wouldn't feel confident in picking Perry or Jouban. Just want to analyze this fight in the most rational way possible.

I've spend some energy writing this post for YOU, so please don't give me any bullcrap and please respond in a way where we can have a rational discussion :)

#EGOHasNoBusinessInSportsBetting
I wouldn't say calling fighters overrated is being a "bully". I'm not saying Belal is overrated because he was just KO'd, I'm saying he's overrated because his only notable win so far in his career is Montano yet there was an unjustified hype train starting up before his last fight. He's still young but he's not shown me anything that would make me confidently pick him over most guys that are a tier above.

I genuinely think KO wins over Lim and Roberts in your first two fights are better than KO wins over Seth Baczynski, Richard Walsh and Brendan O'Reilly over a 5 year MMA career and I cant understand anyone who doesn't think the same. I think your dislike of Perry is clouding your judgement.

When has Jouban ever just "stayed at a comfortable range and not in the pocket"? That's just not what Jouban does. He gets sucked into a brawl and dropped as a consequence in most of his fights, even against low level fighters and these days point fghters that are not known for their power. He honestly has awful striking defense and always has, and at 35 years old his chin is deteriorating.

I've already explained my opinion on why I think Perry has value in depth. When a fight is most likely going to be a brawl, especially when both guys don't care about defense, I'll always pick the more durable guy against the guy who's chin just doesn't hold up at all anymore and it's always worked. This is a special case because Jouban is 35 years old, has a terrible chin, has NEVER cared about defense and always gets sucked into a brawl. People seem to think he has Dominick Cruz footwork and can just stay on the outside without being hit but that's just simply wrong. He can't deal with pressure. He always gets backed up against the fence and always gets hit.

Of course Jouban can stop Perry. I've put 5 units on Perry, not my house. I just think it's unlikely given what we've seen from both fighters. You don't have to agree with my opinion and I'm done discussing this fight. We'll see tomorrow.
 
Random news:

Platinum Mike Perry-
I'm going to hit him with the right, finish him with the left hook. Im going to work that body, change levels, use lateral motion side to side ins and outs up and downs, move my head, im to big to strong to powerful to fast to clean, and im just going to touch that chin, and hes going to break!



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Aldana playing witcher game while weight cutting


 
Anyone has intel on why so much money has been coming in on Holtzman?

I thought Emmett looked great in his debut and he's fighting here at home with a lot of support. Looks like the better fighter to me shit.

Been wondering the same thing . I think Emmett has a big edge standing, solid wrestling... I don't get it.
 
One last comment regarding Jouban/Perry as I know that fight has been discussed plenty.

I don't think Perry working on his head movement will translate to any improvements in this fight or any future fights for that matter. The guy seems like a total rockhead and I think as soon as he gets hit all of the techniques hes been learning in training will go out the window. He is a brawler at heart and personally I don't think he is smart enough to implement much else than what he already has shown. That said, his hard head and harder fists may be enough..
 
@Joseph Budden
Hope this actually spoilers as I haven't done it before, but what do you do in banking? Jw as I worked in commerical lending at a community bank before recently moving jobs to a large commercial real estate firm.
 
@Joseph Budden
Hope this actually spoilers as I haven't done it before, but what do you do in banking? Jw as I worked in commerical lending at a community bank before recently moving jobs to a large commercial real estate firm.

I've been in the title insurance and real estate closing business for 10 years. I handle most of the commercial title work and closings. Lol - it's going to be interesting to see if a lot of us are in related industries.

Are you fairly careful with the way you bet, withdraw, deposit, etc? Trust me, it's not something you want to fuck around with in our industry. I have a friend on the CFPB and you can absolutely get slaughtered if you have any sort of fiduciary power. I personally know of a few loans (residential) that have been denied due to funds deposited from gambling which are essentially unaccounted for funds. It obviously depends what state you are in too though.
 
Henrique da Silva interview in here Brazil: "Very relax for this fight, know that Craig is good on the mat but want on the feet and knock Craig out with high kick in first round. Not nervous as 2 fights on ufc, much more relax for this and looking for better than never".

Confidence increase on Henrique Frankstein. Im put 0,3 on him ITD.
 
I wouldn't say calling fighters overrated is being a "bully". I'm not saying Belal is overrated because he was just KO'd, I'm saying he's overrated because his only notable win so far in his career is Montano yet there was an unjustified hype train starting up before his last fight. He's still young but he's not shown me anything that would make me confidently pick him over most guys that are a tier above.

I genuinely think KO wins over Lim and Roberts in your first two fights are better than KO wins over Seth Baczynski, Richard Walsh and Brendan O'Reilly over a 5 year MMA career and I cant understand anyone who doesn't think the same. I think your dislike of Perry is clouding your judgement.

When has Jouban ever just "stayed at a comfortable range and not in the pocket"? That's just not what Jouban does. He gets sucked into a brawl and dropped as a consequence in most of his fights, even against low level fighters and these days point fghters that are not known for their power. He honestly has awful striking defense and always has, and at 35 years old his chin is deteriorating.

I've already explained my opinion on why I think Perry has value in depth. When a fight is most likely going to be a brawl, especially when both guys don't care about defense, I'll always pick the more durable guy against the guy who's chin just doesn't hold up at all anymore and it's always worked. This is a special case because Jouban is 35 years old, has a terrible chin, has NEVER cared about defense and always gets sucked into a brawl. People seem to think he has Dominick Cruz footwork and can just stay on the outside without being hit but that's just simply wrong. He can't deal with pressure. He always gets backed up against the fence and always gets hit.

Of course Jouban can stop Perry. I've put 5 units on Perry, not my house. I just think it's unlikely given what we've seen from both fighters. You don't have to agree with my opinion and I'm done discussing this fight. We'll see tomorrow.

Serious question: did something change in your personal life, or was your account stolen? Your posting style has changed dramatically.
 
I've been in the title insurance and real estate closing business for 10 years. I handle most of the commercial title work and closings. Lol - it's going to be interesting to see if a lot of us are in related industries.

Are you fairly careful with the way you bet, withdraw, deposit, etc? Trust me, it's not something you want to fuck around with in our industry. I have a friend on the CFPB and you can absolutely get slaughtered if you have any sort of fiduciary power. I personally know of a few loans (residential) that have been denied due to funds deposited from gambling which are essentially unaccounted for funds. It obviously depends what state you are in too though.

Yeah I am careful for sure. I used to play a lot of online poker in highschool/college, but back then it was awesome, you could just wire funds directly from your bank account to different sites. Then the gov made it illegal and I couldn't find many local games, so unfortunately now I just bet a bit and play small stakes poker occasionaly, but only have an account with Bovada as it seems easiest for deposits/withdrawals. They just send a canadian check, so I keep a small account at a larger institution who accepts foreign checks while I keep all of my other accounts/loans at the bank I used to work for.

That is funny though that it seems a lot of us work in Finance/Real Estate in some capacity. Where do you live? I am in Madison, WI.
 
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Yeah I am careful for sure. I used to play a lot of online poker, but back then it was awesome, you could just wire funds directly from your bank account to different sites. Unfortunately now I just bet a bit and play small stakes poker occasionaly, but only have an account with Bovada as it seems easiest for deposits/withdrawals. They just send a canadian check, so I keep a small account at a larger institution who accepts foreign checks while I keep all of my other accounts/loans at the bank I used to work for.

That is funny though that it seems a lot of us work in Finance/Real Estate in some capacity. Where do you live? I am in Madison, WI.

I'm in Indiana. We aren't licensed outside of Indiana, but we obviously deal with banks from everywhere.

It seems you have it down on keeping it careful. I used to use Bovada but found 5dimes is just as easy to withdraw as I do Western Union w/ cash. Definitely keep a separate account that you do not put on any loan apps or essentially anything. The only thing I use that account for is paypal or payout deposits.

That's the reason I'd never raise stakes high. It's just not worth it in our industry.
 
I don't think UFC cares. They probably won't have Rogan interview him but thats about it. Its not like with a win he gets any leverage.

Could be right. I think they enjoy watching people who trash them lose though.
 
I'm in Indiana. We aren't licensed outside of Indiana, but we obviously deal with banks from everywhere.

It seems you have it down on keeping it careful. I used to use Bovada but found 5dimes is just as easy to withdraw as I do Western Union w/ cash. Definitely keep a separate account that you do not put on any loan apps or essentially anything. The only thing I use that account for is paypal or payout deposits.

That's the reason I'd never raise stakes high. It's just not worth it in our industry.

I really need to look into 5Dimes, cause Bovada releases lines and especailly props super late and most lines suck by that time. Yeah for now it is merely for fun for me (bet like $100 or a so a card), wouldn't mind making some decent spending money from it as I build a BR, but you're right. I have a good job and understand betting isn't an easy way to make a living. I made like $40k playing poker in highschool/college and didn't really need the money as I didnt have any real responsibilities so I could handle the swings of winning/losing 1-2k in a night, but now it doesn't seem worth it.
 
@Joseph Budden
Hope this actually spoilers as I haven't done it before, but what do you do in banking? Jw as I worked in commerical lending at a community bank before recently moving jobs to a large commercial real estate firm.
Banker/Branch Supervisor. Hoping within the next few months to move to a back office job (trying to work for the fraud department) or leave banking altogether. Maybe move to a community bank as i'm sure there is less bullshit to deal with when the overlords aren't a billion dollar corp. I really, really hate working at a branch for a corporate bank lol its all about making them money and having nice numbers, by any means.
 
Anyone has intel on why so much money has been coming in on Holtzman?

I thought Emmett looked great in his debut and he's fighting here at home with a lot of support. Looks like the better fighter to me shit.

Hopefully same reason late money came in on mcdonald against lineker and a few others recently. The late money meant jack shit and our boy still won.
 
Banker/Branch Supervisor. Hoping within the next few months to move to a back office job (trying to work for the fraud department) or leave banking altogether. Maybe move to a community bank as i'm sure there is less bullshit to deal with when the overlords aren't a billion dollar corp. I really, really hate working at a branch for a corporate bank lol its all about making them money and having nice numbers, by any means.

In general, most of the national banks are pretty awful to work with and obviously to work for. I think you'd have a completely different experience at a smaller bank. My wife has worked for four different banks now with two national and two smaller. She's moved to multiple departments and has now landed in backroom loan documentation. It's basically everything that happens during the life of the loan (escrow payments, releases, payoffs, etc.). It's honestly the most relaxed job in the world as she has zero customer interaction. The pay is pretty good for the banking world too. If you can get in on the loan side, it's pretty versatile as the front end is sales oriented (can be lucrative) and the back end is pretty much the opposite.

If you are really interested in fraud prevention, I'd try to get in with the compliance department. Right now the CFPB is really flexing on the banking industry as we've seen with the passing of TRID on the residential side. Compliance is a huge issue and they obviously handle the fraud side too. It's a lot of other bullshit too, but compliance is where you need to get your foot in the door. And I hate to say it, but compliance at a large bank probably pays much better than a small bank as they are all about their checklists and following protocol.
 
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