yeah harris is good, I don't think he should be the underdog here, Impa looks very athletic and strong but his game is very underdeveloped.
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UFC Fight Night - Smith vs Spann - Offical discussion
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Got Harris at +160 but at current odds I'd have to side with Impa.
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You don't think Impa will just use his boxing to outpoint, and maybe even hurt, Carlston? I think that's how it'll play out given Harris' grappling. It's not like Impa has bad fight IQ either, so I highly doubt he'll grapple more than he has to.
Blanchfield I agree with, Whitmire/Goldy I'm not touching since they're the lowest of lows, and I might fade Bohm simply because SBG connection rarely translates to strong grappling which is usually the way to beat Lipski.
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That's a bummer, kinda liked Rong at plus odds there.
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I don't know that Impa's boxing is that good tbh. The only guy who's really outstruck Carlston in recent years is Al-Silawi who I rate higher than Impa at present.
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It's solid, he didn't have too bad of a time exchanging with Pitolo who, while being an extremely shitty fighter, has good enough boxing to trouble guys who choose to stand with him.
I'll admit I might be a bit biases since I think sky's the limit for Impa. Probably more confident than I should be, but I'm tossing money down the Kasanganay hole. Him being a former MW should also help here I think
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I agree that Impa has a lot of potential, I think I just think this is a big step up for him against an unheralded but very experienced fighter who's been in there with tough guys under the radar for a long time.
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Harris is a more accomplished martial arts fighter. Luta livre champ, black belt, former brave champion, win on perreira, arsenal of advance submission. Solid muay Thai. Impa is an mma generalist , doesn't excel in any one area
Yeah and also I don't like the fact how often Impa goes to a decision. Very talented fighters usually have great finishing ability, he does not.
I also think that Rodriguez should roll here. He is a bit of a headcase and he might gas and throw away this fight again, but Nchukwi must be one of the slowest fighters I have ever seen, he punches like he holds a parachute on his arm. There is also no way in hell that he is 26 yrs old. I wouldn't be surprised if later he admits he is actually 45.
Rodriguez is also the much bigger man, I feel like Nchukwi will have a lot of trouble to overcome the reach disadvantage, combined with also being a lot slower it feels like a recepy for disaster.
Rodriguez is also the much bigger man, I feel like Nchukwi will have a lot of trouble to overcome the reach disadvantage, combined with also being a lot slower it feels like a recepy for disaster.
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I really hope Smith isn't starting to get over Ryan Spann's head.
Spann should just ignore what Smith and fight it off at the octagon.
I am not very high on Impa this week i like Harris for his TDs ability. Harris seems to have being coming back from wins as well in his record.
I actually like Harris here Hariss last fight was a good one.
Spann should just ignore what Smith and fight it off at the octagon.
I am not very high on Impa this week i like Harris for his TDs ability. Harris seems to have being coming back from wins as well in his record.
I actually like Harris here Hariss last fight was a good one.
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Carlston at + odds against Impa was a steal. Lines are moving close to even now tho
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I agree with you there. I dont hate those taking a shot at Smith/Harris. But play light please.
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my 2c on the fights I taped. Will try keep it small, too many fights.
Lopez/Alateng: Alateng has more technical striking and a better chin. Shit volume, but he wins fights by landing clean and with power. Occasionally wrestles but only in round 3 or not at all against Kenny. Gustavo throws wild hooks only, seems to have 1 shot power but Alateng is very durable and he might counter him. Was super impressed by Alatengs jab and counter right on Beniot when he finally opened up and started hurting him end of round 1 and round 2. Even if he doesn't use his wrestling Alateng could win this. Close fight so not sure if there is any value on it but I got Alateng at 1.80.
Impa/Harris: Got Harris at 2.50 early and will probably keep it even though its hard to get a read on some things. At worst I think the fight is a pick-em, or even Harris a slight fav for being more experienced and having more ways to win. Ima is strong, durable, good IQ and hits hard even though he doesn't have too many KOs. In my opinion he needs to grind out Haris or outstrike him on the outside, which I think results in a very close fight. Im not sure if Harris can take Impa down, I have seen a lot of people get him down on contender and even Buckley. Sasha did great in the clinch which is worrying. Value play here I think Harris can have success anywhere the fight goes.
Montel/JP: Jesus, rough fight for JP. JP is a flake, and his UFC debut only confirmed it to me. Not shooting for ages, slipping, throwing flying shit and ending up on the bottom, talking to the ref all massive red flags of a guy not there mentally. Slows down, not durable. Might be a bit better at BW, but wouldn't hold my breath those traits usually carry over. Montel will be huge in comparison, think that quick 1-2 will be finding the mark constantly and eventually finish JP when he gasses or panic wrestles.
Motta/VanCamp: Van camp is shit honestly, only fighting cans and losing to 5 of them. Slow hittable guy that wants to clinch and use his ground game but the ground game is sloppy. Think he will struggle to get anything going against Motta but line is still wide. Small LW, if you look at his CFFC fights he keeps coming under the LW limit. He was 155 for contender but doubt he cuts any weight. He also needs to pace himself, whenever he explodes he starts taking deep breaths. Looking at finish props, I have honestly never seen VanCamp hurt, even in the Volker fight he is brawling eating clean shots for 5 rounds, and nothing. Maybe Motta is the one to put him out, especially since he is dropping down to LW first time in years. Pass for me.
Nchukwi/Mike: What a fight lol. Mikes a flake, KO or bust, Nchukwi is moving back up to LHW. He will probably have slightly better cardio and speed difference won't be as bad, but he is still green and slow as shit. Nchukwi probably drowns Mike with pressure later, but he will be at a massive speed disadvantage early. Pass or live bet.
Buckley/Arroyo: Buckly DEC 6.00 and Arroyo KO 6.00 only potential plays I like small. Arroyo seems very durable, his problem is grapplers and wrestlers who gass him out. I bet Di Chirico by KO last time, honestly think Arroyo has the same shot here with Buckleys style unless he comes out all cautious after being Koed. Arroyo wont win a decision with his low output style.
Manes/Gravley: Manes has strong hips, good underhooks and great first layer of defense. Stopped 15/17 takedowns from Munoz, only when he got in deep and high crotched him he got him down. Watched Machado consistently get deep on the hips of Manes but not being able to take him down, but not sure how good of a wrestler he is. Manes is durable, huge, hits hard and even has a decent back take which Gravely loves giving up to almost everyone he grapples. Seems like it will be a tough DEC and Manes should be the side, but on the other hand Gravely is a whole new level of wrestling Manes hasn't seen, I feel like this could be the fight his takedown dee falls apart and Gravely lives up to the odds. I could be overthinking it here, its just that line that's bothering me especially if it goes to DEC. We could have a close-grinding decision, or Gravely could come out here and dominate. Currently have 2u on Gravley but might reduce and play DEC or props.
Smith/Spann: Flake v flake fight in my opinion. Line is defs wide, nobody should be comfortable playing Smith at those odds. Yea he probably wins if it goes late, but he will be actively losing before that moment, or get finished. Spann cracks hard but he also goes for wrestling often, took down Alvey who is very hard to hold and takedown. He got gassed from it but kept going for it even in the third, I think that's his default setting. Could have Koed Walker but kept diving for his crotch and then got Koed. Smith wont put up that kind of resistance he will be on his back in a millisecond. Spann has a shit chin and cardio and IQ but if he comes forward aggressively Smith will cover into the cage with his hands up like usual or end up on the ground and then stay there. The safest play is the finish, I have a bit on Spann due to principle, might cash out after a couple of rounds, and then rely on my Smith by finish hedge. Live betting Smith is also a good option for much better odds if it gets out of round 1 or 2.
Lopez/Alateng: Alateng has more technical striking and a better chin. Shit volume, but he wins fights by landing clean and with power. Occasionally wrestles but only in round 3 or not at all against Kenny. Gustavo throws wild hooks only, seems to have 1 shot power but Alateng is very durable and he might counter him. Was super impressed by Alatengs jab and counter right on Beniot when he finally opened up and started hurting him end of round 1 and round 2. Even if he doesn't use his wrestling Alateng could win this. Close fight so not sure if there is any value on it but I got Alateng at 1.80.
Impa/Harris: Got Harris at 2.50 early and will probably keep it even though its hard to get a read on some things. At worst I think the fight is a pick-em, or even Harris a slight fav for being more experienced and having more ways to win. Ima is strong, durable, good IQ and hits hard even though he doesn't have too many KOs. In my opinion he needs to grind out Haris or outstrike him on the outside, which I think results in a very close fight. Im not sure if Harris can take Impa down, I have seen a lot of people get him down on contender and even Buckley. Sasha did great in the clinch which is worrying. Value play here I think Harris can have success anywhere the fight goes.
Montel/JP: Jesus, rough fight for JP. JP is a flake, and his UFC debut only confirmed it to me. Not shooting for ages, slipping, throwing flying shit and ending up on the bottom, talking to the ref all massive red flags of a guy not there mentally. Slows down, not durable. Might be a bit better at BW, but wouldn't hold my breath those traits usually carry over. Montel will be huge in comparison, think that quick 1-2 will be finding the mark constantly and eventually finish JP when he gasses or panic wrestles.
Motta/VanCamp: Van camp is shit honestly, only fighting cans and losing to 5 of them. Slow hittable guy that wants to clinch and use his ground game but the ground game is sloppy. Think he will struggle to get anything going against Motta but line is still wide. Small LW, if you look at his CFFC fights he keeps coming under the LW limit. He was 155 for contender but doubt he cuts any weight. He also needs to pace himself, whenever he explodes he starts taking deep breaths. Looking at finish props, I have honestly never seen VanCamp hurt, even in the Volker fight he is brawling eating clean shots for 5 rounds, and nothing. Maybe Motta is the one to put him out, especially since he is dropping down to LW first time in years. Pass for me.
Nchukwi/Mike: What a fight lol. Mikes a flake, KO or bust, Nchukwi is moving back up to LHW. He will probably have slightly better cardio and speed difference won't be as bad, but he is still green and slow as shit. Nchukwi probably drowns Mike with pressure later, but he will be at a massive speed disadvantage early. Pass or live bet.
Buckley/Arroyo: Buckly DEC 6.00 and Arroyo KO 6.00 only potential plays I like small. Arroyo seems very durable, his problem is grapplers and wrestlers who gass him out. I bet Di Chirico by KO last time, honestly think Arroyo has the same shot here with Buckleys style unless he comes out all cautious after being Koed. Arroyo wont win a decision with his low output style.
Manes/Gravley: Manes has strong hips, good underhooks and great first layer of defense. Stopped 15/17 takedowns from Munoz, only when he got in deep and high crotched him he got him down. Watched Machado consistently get deep on the hips of Manes but not being able to take him down, but not sure how good of a wrestler he is. Manes is durable, huge, hits hard and even has a decent back take which Gravely loves giving up to almost everyone he grapples. Seems like it will be a tough DEC and Manes should be the side, but on the other hand Gravely is a whole new level of wrestling Manes hasn't seen, I feel like this could be the fight his takedown dee falls apart and Gravely lives up to the odds. I could be overthinking it here, its just that line that's bothering me especially if it goes to DEC. We could have a close-grinding decision, or Gravely could come out here and dominate. Currently have 2u on Gravley but might reduce and play DEC or props.
Smith/Spann: Flake v flake fight in my opinion. Line is defs wide, nobody should be comfortable playing Smith at those odds. Yea he probably wins if it goes late, but he will be actively losing before that moment, or get finished. Spann cracks hard but he also goes for wrestling often, took down Alvey who is very hard to hold and takedown. He got gassed from it but kept going for it even in the third, I think that's his default setting. Could have Koed Walker but kept diving for his crotch and then got Koed. Smith wont put up that kind of resistance he will be on his back in a millisecond. Spann has a shit chin and cardio and IQ but if he comes forward aggressively Smith will cover into the cage with his hands up like usual or end up on the ground and then stay there. The safest play is the finish, I have a bit on Spann due to principle, might cash out after a couple of rounds, and then rely on my Smith by finish hedge. Live betting Smith is also a good option for much better odds if it gets out of round 1 or 2.
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Buying money what do they charge for 50$
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What does this mean?
Lipski struggles against wrestlers/pressure clinch fighters and Bohm is mostly a striker from what I've seen. I think Lipski fucks her up pretty badly actually.
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