UFC Fight Night - Santos vs Walker - Official discussion

Parlay Andrade ML + FDGTD main event is very good. Pirrelo is not ufc level and Andrade is better in all areas. The main event will have some finish, 2 brawlers.
 
Parlay Andrade ML + FDGTD main event is very good. Pirrelo is not ufc level and Andrade is better in all areas. The main event will have some finish, 2 brawlers.

I stabbed Andrade sub @ +1600, although unlikely, I think that's a bit off

Edit: +2000 actually
 
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Macy Chiasson (136) vs. Aspen Ladd (137)*
Mike Breeden (158.5)** vs. Alexander Hernandez (154.5)
Bethe Correia (138.5)*** vs. Karol Rosa (135.5)

*Ladd missed women’s bantamweight by 1 pound; fight canceled
**Breeden missed the lightweight limit by 2.5 pounds and will be fined 20 percent; fight goes on
**Correia missed the women’s bantamweight limit by 2.5 pounds and will be fined 20 percent; fight goes on

opponents-thiago-santos-of-brazil-and-johnny-walker-of-brazil-face-picture-id1344309689


opponents-kevin-holland-and-kyle-daukaus-face-off-during-the-ufc-picture-id1344309690


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opponents-misha-cirkunov-of-latvia-and-krzysztof-jotko-of-poland-face-picture-id1344309621


opponents-alexander-hernandez-and-mike-breeden-face-off-during-the-picture-id1344309600


opponents-joe-solecki-and-jared-gordon-face-off-during-the-ufc-fight-picture-id1344308806


opponents-bethe-correia-of-brazil-and-karol-rosa-of-brazil-face-off-picture-id1344308774


opponents-devonte-smith-and-jamie-mullarkey-of-australia-face-off-picture-id1344308809


opponents-douglas-silva-de-andrade-of-brazil-and-gaetano-pirrello-of-picture-id1344308502


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opponents-alejandro-perez-of-mexico-and-johnny-eduardo-of-brazil-face-picture-id1344308413
 
Love the feeling when the only fight you didnt tape dosent happen.

Also was Perez coked up? <Eek2.0>
 
Technically Santos is better, but he's been slowing down his last few fights after coming off of a major injury.

That, paired with the fact that he's 38, is making me consider a bet on Walker.

I have FDNGTD in a few parlays, but I may end up playing Walker KO +210.

If this fight took place before Santos fought Jones, I'd be confident in Santos. But this really seems like a dog or pass spot.
 
Alejandro Perez on drugs? You be the judge! Could change his performance tomorrow.



I just saw that on YouTube, bizarre.

Rosa/ME FDNGTD @ -185 seems like a lock. Just added 370 to win 200 on it.
 
I was just about to ask whether or not it was a good play to take Egger to win by submission..

Although I think it most likely goes the distance there is value at +600 for sure. (I may actually sprinkle a tiny bet on it now that you mention it)
 
Rosa and Hernandez both around -600. I get it but who in their right mind is paying that juice?
 
Macy Chiasson (136) vs. Aspen Ladd (137)*
Mike Breeden (158.5)** vs. Alexander Hernandez (154.5)
Bethe Correia (138.5)*** vs. Karol Rosa (135.5)

*Ladd missed women’s bantamweight by 1 pound; fight canceled
**Breeden missed the lightweight limit by 2.5 pounds and will be fined 20 percent; fight goes on
**Correia missed the women’s bantamweight limit by 2.5 pounds and will be fined 20 percent; fight goes on

opponents-thiago-santos-of-brazil-and-johnny-walker-of-brazil-face-picture-id1344309689


opponents-kevin-holland-and-kyle-daukaus-face-off-during-the-ufc-picture-id1344309690


opponents-alex-cowboy-oliveira-of-brazil-and-niko-price-face-off-the-picture-id1344309655


opponents-misha-cirkunov-of-latvia-and-krzysztof-jotko-of-poland-face-picture-id1344309621


opponents-alexander-hernandez-and-mike-breeden-face-off-during-the-picture-id1344309600


opponents-joe-solecki-and-jared-gordon-face-off-during-the-ufc-fight-picture-id1344308806


opponents-bethe-correia-of-brazil-and-karol-rosa-of-brazil-face-off-picture-id1344308774


opponents-devonte-smith-and-jamie-mullarkey-of-australia-face-off-picture-id1344308809


opponents-douglas-silva-de-andrade-of-brazil-and-gaetano-pirrello-of-picture-id1344308502


opponents-stephanie-egger-of-switzerland-and-shanna-young-face-off-picture-id1344308424


opponents-alejandro-perez-of-mexico-and-johnny-eduardo-of-brazil-face-picture-id1344308413

I'm worried about my play on this new sensible haircut Douglas Silva.
 
Fight Night: Santos vs Walker Prelims

Eduardo vs Perez


Both fighters haven’t fought in years. Pass.

Egger vs Young

Egger’s supposed to be this dominant clinch fighter coming from a solid Judo background, but I don’t see it. She’s not particularly strong, doesn’t show the kind of balance you’d expect to see and can be outwrestled from clinch range much less in space. Most damning from my position is her comfort hanging out on her back and sacrificing dominant positions for a sub opportunity. She looks really stiff and uncomfortable on her feet and doesn’t translate her weight through her body when she throws. I just don’t think she’s very good at all.

Young isn’t particularly good either and this definitely qualifies as a low level WMMA matchup. That said she has good movement and won’t be easy to track down here for the more slow footed Egger. On top of the speed and footwork advantage, Young throws a lot of long kicks that should slow down the “clinch fighter”. I especially think with how well Young exits exchanges, that Egger is gonna struggle getting a hold of her.

Egger has the ability and tenacity on the ground to pull of a sub in this spot but, regardless of how often women get armbarred, I can’t go for a fighter that I think needs a sub. She could also, potentially, hold Young against the cage but I don’t think she has the strength or functional pressure to pull it off for more than a round. Most likely to me is Young outworks her to a very competitive decision victory. Young is the pick.

Andrade vs Pirrello

I don’t get this line. I could see Andrade being a -150 at best here but floating around -250 is absurd. We’re talking about a late 30’s power swarmer that doesn’t even bomb in the pocket. Andrade is certainly a decent action fighter that has a good diversity of attacks but his defense isn’t nearly as great as his chin, he’s incredibly foot slow and he needs to be on the attack or he’s terrible. He’s got the volume, chin and power to make a fight competitive but he is visibly old in the ring and that isn’t gonna improve with time.

Pirrello’s a striker and his stance and technique choice makes me think he’s not gonna get very diverse anytime soon. I don’t even think his TDD is likely to make any big strides either but I doubt that’ll matter much in this fight. He’s got diverse, quick footwork, can fight at all ranges and, to Andrade’s chagrin, throws a ton of low kicks. Pirrello can throw straight shots and fight long but does his best work in the clinch where he becomes an offensive machine. He has some sloppy exits and is willing to trade one for one here, which could be a problem against someone that cracks like Andrade but he’ll be giving as good as he’s getting for sure.

This is gonna be a high octane fight with lots of clashes and I think both fighters will have their moments. Ultimately I have to go with the younger, less shopworn, more technical fighter here. While Andrade could potentially match him with his power, strength and aggressiveness in the pocket, he could also get outquick’d at range for lengths. As well, his best chance of winning happens to be Pirrello’s best spot in close and that’s a really tough sell. I think Andrade really needs a KO here but he’ll more likely find his leg beat up and eating a ton of body knees up close. Pirrello is the pick.

Mullarkey vs Smith

Mullarkey is looking to do one thing and one thing only and that’s box into the clinch. His stance is heavy, wide, slow and just endlessly slides into you until he can lob some shots dive a clinch. He’ll move forward and throw, even if it means overextending, eating leg kicks or being generally predictable. His boxing isn’t bad, I’d call it opportunistic more than anything. He’s got a good overhand but rarely jabs cleanly and doesn’t chain techniques together well. His wrestling is persistent but it’s clear that he didn’t grow up doing it and he’s relying on a mix of craft and effort to get his takedowns as opposed to real talent or high level technique. I think all of this doesn’t bode well against Smith.

The biggest problem Smith has going for him is a somewhat shaky chin, though I think that’s a little overblown. He’s not the easiest guy to hit clean and throwing on him opens you up to some monstrous counter fire. I really like his active, quick footwork when he isn’t being lazy and his jab is very long and active. I Love that he uses posts to maintain range and frame shots as well. Outside of his chin, he could have trouble with how straight he exits which could lead to being fence pressed and taken down here, though his raw strength and speed could be a big deterrent in their own right.

I think Mullarkey really relies on forward pressure to make his game work and he could have a hard time generating that here. Smith’s ability to stifle momentum with leg kicks, jabs and posts as well as being much slicker in his movement and faster generally will consistently put up a red light on Mullarkeys shuffle. Mullarkey’s shown to have a monster chin but it’s hard to just wade through damage for the clinch. I personally think his best shot is landing his overhand but I don’t think it’s particularly likely in this spot and he made need some big wrestling moments to steal rounds. What seem’s more likely to me is Smith just being too much for him on the feet and Mullarkey hitting a wall eventually when he’s unable to get any momentum forward. Smith is the pick.

Rosa vs Correira

Zero chance I’m betting Bethe or taking Rosa at -600. Pass.

Schevchenko vs O’Neil

Surprising matchup here since you’d think they want to keep the marketable other Shev around. Yeah, I don’t think she’s got much of a chance here. It’s not that I think Casey is a great fighter either, I think her grappling is highly overrated and she’s gonna run into a brick wall sooner than later. She’s just too much for someone who’s still learning the basics of defensive grappling. O’Neil isn’t terrible anywhere, has a solid gas tank and will pursue a takedown here relentlessly. While Schev could keep it competitive for a bit by manhadling O’Neil in the clinch or beating her to spots on the feet, I don’t think she’s got the finishing ability or a big enough striking advantage to avoid getting floored each round. O’Neil is the pick.

Solecki vs Gordon

This is one I’ve gone back and forth on the most. On one hand you have the volume and cardio advantage with Gordon. A pure pour it on, all levels, fighter that can shoot, clinch and strike. He’s built his career on trying to break fighters and now that he’s with a top tier camp in Sanford, he’s hitting his stride. Where I disagree with a lot of people is his striking technique, I don’t think it’s anything special. He can throw decent straight shots if he’s on the front foot but his hooks aren’t tight and off his backfoot, his striking is awful. Add in that he mostly throws naked low kicks, doesn’t move his head when he’s throwing and lacks KO power and it becomes highly unimpressive. What I’m most curious about is if he’ll wrestle here. Solecki is a very willing grappler and I wouldn’t be shocked at all if Gordon was able to steal a round or 2 by riding out top position.

Solecki’s someone I’m pretty high on. He’s got very opportunistic grappling, good wrestling and his striking is powerfu and he puts boxing combinations together well. It’s somewhat based on athleticism but I imagine it’ll be improving from fight to fight. He’ll certainly be the stronger man in the cage, would could be expressed through his wrestling. What I worry about is a repeat of the Miller fight and Solecki pulling guard. Hopefully his coaches cooked him over that decision and he comes in with some dedicated forward pressure here.

That’s really the key to this fight, who can take and hold the forward pressure. I think Gordon might be a little scared to shoot here which would take away a big weapon and create a diversity advantage for Solecki, who I believe will stay competitive. The third round could be sketchy against a cardio freak like Gordon but I do think he’ll be the one pushing forward, landing takedowns and getting the best of exchanges. Solecki is the pick.
 
Fight Night: Santos vs Walker Main Card

Hernandez vs Breeden


No way I’m I playing this. Pass.

Cirkunov vs Jotko

There’s only one question I have about this fight, what does Cirk’s cardio look like down 20 lbs? He’s always been a pretty big, cut up LHW, so going down another 20 leaves a lot of questions about where it’s gonna come from. That said he’s got some huge advantages here. He’s by far the better wrestler and overall grappler, he’s going to hit significantly harder and most importantly, Jotko is the last guy at MW to take advantage of Cirk’s weak chin. Add in the huge strength advantage Cirk’s gonna have here and it should be a grapplethon as long as Cirk has the gas to do it. I would’t be shocked if Jotko outlasted him, should Cirk gas but I’m positive it’ll hit the mat in at least the first round. When it does, Jotko’s gonna be fighting for his life until the bell rings. At underdog odd’s, there’s no way I’m passing up this fight. Circunov is the pick.

Price vs Oliveira

Niko Price is one of the harder fighters to get a bead on what they’re gonna do. He’s changed his looks a lot over the course of his career. Sometimes pumping a patient jab and playing the distance game, other times crashing hard and throwing all sorts of wild attacks, recently we’ve seem him try to add some wrestling to his game, which if practiced with his power, could become potent. He’s also very difficult to hold down between his wild bursts and brown belt, unless you crack really hard, he’s a tough guy to put away. Regardless of what he brings offensively, you can definitely expect violence at some point and with Niko it usually goes all 3 rounds.

Cowboy, inversely, does not go all 3 rounds. Cardio’s never been his strong suit but it’s only gotten worse with time. A wild man, like Price, who’s leveraged a power wrestling game along with thudding hooks and low kicks. Defensively he leans a lot, which could be a bad recipe against someone as long and explosive as Niko. He’s definitely live for a finish here but depending on the Niko that shows up, it could be hard to land.

I expect to see Cowboy trying to wrestle early here, to hopefully ride out an early round on top, but this is gonna be a really tough task with how dynamic Niko is. On the feet early it could be close but I wouldn’t be shocked at all if Niko won all 3 rounds. He’s faster, more diverse, has a better understanding of how to fight patiently and most importantly will have a significant cardio advantage. I think Oliveira is early finish or bust here and while Niko has been finished early before, I don’t think Cowboy is gonna be able to replicate it more often than not. Niko is the pick.

Daukaus vs Holland

I think Daukus is gonna need a takedown something bad in this fight. He has a decent chance of getting it too but it’s gonna be a lot harder than people think. The last two people to ragdoll Holland, both had some speed and the ability to shoot in space. This forced Holland to really rely on range to keep him alive but that would eventually get him caged and taken down. Daukaus doesn’t shoot in space nor do I think he’d take Kevin down there. Against the fence he has a better chance but still not nearly the opportunity far superior wrestlers like Vettori and Brunson had. Getting him cornered means breaking through the massive reach advantage, keeping the initiative and threatening with power to get Holland even moving backwards, all things I think Kyle will struggle with. He does his absolute best work as a pressure counterer in boxing range but that’s a nightmare fight against Holland and he’ll need to leverage every bit of his cage grappling to come away with a win.

Holland moves shifts between unpredictable erratic movement in space and a slower more methodical pressure sniping style. His crazy length, hyper diverse striking and enormous power really make his game. He’s got a knack for finding holes in a defense and landing strikes as the opponent overextends. Where he lacks is in his takedown defense, which isn’t a surprise with how upright and en motion he is.

Daukaus could make me eat my words and show up with a far improved wrestling game. I don’t think he will though. I think he’s too slow for the top of this division and especially for a quick, hard hitting striker like Holland. You add in that his cardio isn’t hard 3 round quality and the need to get Holland down and hold him down early becomes imperative. I see Holland tagging him up more and more the longer the fight goes with occasionally having to scramble up from the floor and eating a couple hard shots on his way to the victory. Holland is the pick.

Santos vs Walker

This is a wild fight. While you can somewhat imagine what Santos will do, as he remains to be a top tier, dynamic power kickboxer, you really can’t predict what Walker is gonna do. One of the most diverse, explosive freak athletes in the sport and cornered by one of the other ones in training partner Peirera. Thiago has a far deeper technical game but I don’t know if it really matters. At 37 years old, 2 years removed from massive knee surgeries and at a 2 inch height and 6 inch reach disadvantage, it’s hard to back the smarter fighter here. Santos is gonna do what he can to drive leg kicks and crash pocket for power shots but it’s all a tough sell fighting someone so much faster than himself in what’ll certainly be a kickboxing match. I’m a huge Thiago fan and he absolutely has what it takes to win in this chaos but I can’t side with him here. When the underdog has speed, power, youth and reach on his side, you gotta go for it. Walker is the pick.
 
I think people thought the exact same thing about Walker vs Krylov. Both guys are career long finishers, that rarely if ever go to decision. Somehow NCAA Krylov shows up and we got to see a grappling match where both guys gassed out.

I think that still is the only decision win for Krylov and the guy has like 40 fights I think.

So while I agree this isn’t going to a decision… There’s always a chance something totally unexpected happens.

<{Joewithit}>
Oof

<{you!}>

Jinxed it, guys. Sorry.
 
I was actually in utter disbelief after I saw Walker's gameplan. After rd2 I knew it was going the distance.

Thiago fought smart, Walker tried to fight smart, but that's not his thing.
 
I was actually in utter disbelief after I saw Walker's gameplan. After rd2 I knew it was going the distance.

Thiago fought smart, Walker tried to fight smart, but that's not his thing.
Yeah, I realized that it’s going to distance as Walker took a step towards Santos and feinted a right high kick for the 100th time.

<mma3>

Sometimes even the barn burner fights fizzle out. Sucks.
 
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