Fight Night: Santos vs Walker Prelims
Eduardo vs Perez
Both fighters haven’t fought in years. Pass.
Egger vs Young
Egger’s supposed to be this dominant clinch fighter coming from a solid Judo background, but I don’t see it. She’s not particularly strong, doesn’t show the kind of balance you’d expect to see and can be outwrestled from clinch range much less in space. Most damning from my position is her comfort hanging out on her back and sacrificing dominant positions for a sub opportunity. She looks really stiff and uncomfortable on her feet and doesn’t translate her weight through her body when she throws. I just don’t think she’s very good at all.
Young isn’t particularly good either and this definitely qualifies as a low level WMMA matchup. That said she has good movement and won’t be easy to track down here for the more slow footed Egger. On top of the speed and footwork advantage, Young throws a lot of long kicks that should slow down the “clinch fighter”. I especially think with how well Young exits exchanges, that Egger is gonna struggle getting a hold of her.
Egger has the ability and tenacity on the ground to pull of a sub in this spot but, regardless of how often women get armbarred, I can’t go for a fighter that I think needs a sub. She could also, potentially, hold Young against the cage but I don’t think she has the strength or functional pressure to pull it off for more than a round. Most likely to me is Young outworks her to a very competitive decision victory. Young is the pick.
Andrade vs Pirrello
I don’t get this line. I could see Andrade being a -150 at best here but floating around -250 is absurd. We’re talking about a late 30’s power swarmer that doesn’t even bomb in the pocket. Andrade is certainly a decent action fighter that has a good diversity of attacks but his defense isn’t nearly as great as his chin, he’s incredibly foot slow and he needs to be on the attack or he’s terrible. He’s got the volume, chin and power to make a fight competitive but he is visibly old in the ring and that isn’t gonna improve with time.
Pirrello’s a striker and his stance and technique choice makes me think he’s not gonna get very diverse anytime soon. I don’t even think his TDD is likely to make any big strides either but I doubt that’ll matter much in this fight. He’s got diverse, quick footwork, can fight at all ranges and, to Andrade’s chagrin, throws a ton of low kicks. Pirrello can throw straight shots and fight long but does his best work in the clinch where he becomes an offensive machine. He has some sloppy exits and is willing to trade one for one here, which could be a problem against someone that cracks like Andrade but he’ll be giving as good as he’s getting for sure.
This is gonna be a high octane fight with lots of clashes and I think both fighters will have their moments. Ultimately I have to go with the younger, less shopworn, more technical fighter here. While Andrade could potentially match him with his power, strength and aggressiveness in the pocket, he could also get outquick’d at range for lengths. As well, his best chance of winning happens to be Pirrello’s best spot in close and that’s a really tough sell. I think Andrade really needs a KO here but he’ll more likely find his leg beat up and eating a ton of body knees up close. Pirrello is the pick.
Mullarkey vs Smith
Mullarkey is looking to do one thing and one thing only and that’s box into the clinch. His stance is heavy, wide, slow and just endlessly slides into you until he can lob some shots dive a clinch. He’ll move forward and throw, even if it means overextending, eating leg kicks or being generally predictable. His boxing isn’t bad, I’d call it opportunistic more than anything. He’s got a good overhand but rarely jabs cleanly and doesn’t chain techniques together well. His wrestling is persistent but it’s clear that he didn’t grow up doing it and he’s relying on a mix of craft and effort to get his takedowns as opposed to real talent or high level technique. I think all of this doesn’t bode well against Smith.
The biggest problem Smith has going for him is a somewhat shaky chin, though I think that’s a little overblown. He’s not the easiest guy to hit clean and throwing on him opens you up to some monstrous counter fire. I really like his active, quick footwork when he isn’t being lazy and his jab is very long and active. I Love that he uses posts to maintain range and frame shots as well. Outside of his chin, he could have trouble with how straight he exits which could lead to being fence pressed and taken down here, though his raw strength and speed could be a big deterrent in their own right.
I think Mullarkey really relies on forward pressure to make his game work and he could have a hard time generating that here. Smith’s ability to stifle momentum with leg kicks, jabs and posts as well as being much slicker in his movement and faster generally will consistently put up a red light on Mullarkeys shuffle. Mullarkey’s shown to have a monster chin but it’s hard to just wade through damage for the clinch. I personally think his best shot is landing his overhand but I don’t think it’s particularly likely in this spot and he made need some big wrestling moments to steal rounds. What seem’s more likely to me is Smith just being too much for him on the feet and Mullarkey hitting a wall eventually when he’s unable to get any momentum forward. Smith is the pick.
Rosa vs Correira
Zero chance I’m betting Bethe or taking Rosa at -600. Pass.
Schevchenko vs O’Neil
Surprising matchup here since you’d think they want to keep the marketable other Shev around. Yeah, I don’t think she’s got much of a chance here. It’s not that I think Casey is a great fighter either, I think her grappling is highly overrated and she’s gonna run into a brick wall sooner than later. She’s just too much for someone who’s still learning the basics of defensive grappling. O’Neil isn’t terrible anywhere, has a solid gas tank and will pursue a takedown here relentlessly. While Schev could keep it competitive for a bit by manhadling O’Neil in the clinch or beating her to spots on the feet, I don’t think she’s got the finishing ability or a big enough striking advantage to avoid getting floored each round. O’Neil is the pick.
Solecki vs Gordon
This is one I’ve gone back and forth on the most. On one hand you have the volume and cardio advantage with Gordon. A pure pour it on, all levels, fighter that can shoot, clinch and strike. He’s built his career on trying to break fighters and now that he’s with a top tier camp in Sanford, he’s hitting his stride. Where I disagree with a lot of people is his striking technique, I don’t think it’s anything special. He can throw decent straight shots if he’s on the front foot but his hooks aren’t tight and off his backfoot, his striking is awful. Add in that he mostly throws naked low kicks, doesn’t move his head when he’s throwing and lacks KO power and it becomes highly unimpressive. What I’m most curious about is if he’ll wrestle here. Solecki is a very willing grappler and I wouldn’t be shocked at all if Gordon was able to steal a round or 2 by riding out top position.
Solecki’s someone I’m pretty high on. He’s got very opportunistic grappling, good wrestling and his striking is powerfu and he puts boxing combinations together well. It’s somewhat based on athleticism but I imagine it’ll be improving from fight to fight. He’ll certainly be the stronger man in the cage, would could be expressed through his wrestling. What I worry about is a repeat of the Miller fight and Solecki pulling guard. Hopefully his coaches cooked him over that decision and he comes in with some dedicated forward pressure here.
That’s really the key to this fight, who can take and hold the forward pressure. I think Gordon might be a little scared to shoot here which would take away a big weapon and create a diversity advantage for Solecki, who I believe will stay competitive. The third round could be sketchy against a cardio freak like Gordon but I do think he’ll be the one pushing forward, landing takedowns and getting the best of exchanges. Solecki is the pick.