UFC Fight Night - Santos vs Walker - Official discussion

[2020Tracked]

Grant Dawson vs Ricky Glenn has also been added to this card, just hasn't been updated on Tapology yet.

Actually a decent card over all, prefer this card from a betting perspective to the UFC 266 PPV.

 

[2020Tracked]

Santos/Walker - Walker is physically gifted, tall, long, fast and powerful, but he's technically clueless and a liability to himself. He doesn't really have a striking style, he stands in a long lead leg heavy stance and flails his arms out infront of himself as feints. He does start rounds with a little bounce in his step but this goes when he gets tired, which is after about 2.5 minuets if he's been made to work at all. Definitely intimidating and dangerous but all of his UFC wins are memes and complete luck. His head juts forward and his neck is long, when you combine this with zero striking game defence it leads to him eating a lot of big punches. He's also proven to have no chin, any clean shot that lands puts him of skates, stiff legs him, has him slipping all over the cage. He did show some grit in the Krylov fight, and he did look to have worked on his TDD and get ups a little, he didn't do bad here early, but once he tired he was back to being taken down at will. If he ends up on top he becomes very dangerous with his ground and pound, will stand over his opponent and rain down huge punches to the head, but if he's on top in a grappling sense he will usually be reversed or just lose position, even from mount. Uses a lead side kick to the knee at times but not often enough, maybe once or twice a fight but if he became more confident and committed to it I could see this being an effective weapon here. Over all just a physically gifted but otherwise terrible fighter.

Santos has become more measured and controlled over time, he still is explosive and has that coiled spring effect but he doesn't seem to rely on it as much as he did in his rise to the title fight. Technically sound muay thai striker, starts rounds with a bounce in his step, simular long wide stance to Walker but Santos actually has use for his feints and footwork. Defensively aware, good timing and these days appears to be patient. Has a ground game too, effective on top at controlling the position while uploading with ground and pound but doesn't show much off his back and can be controlled here. I think Santos is past his prime and probably peaked physically and technically around the time of the Jones fight but he is still a dangerous hitter, stretches of considered tactical striking are broken with explosive swinging hooks as he steams forward. Proven durable over years of fighting powerful opponents.

I think this is a big step down in competition for Santos, after fighting 4 of the best 5 guys in the devision in his last 4 fights. Walker is dangerous early but his win condition is meme or bust, if he flails or spins at just the right moment there is a possibility of him catching Santos' chin, but outside of that Santos will be better everywhere the fight goes. More well rounded, better technique, better chin, better cardio, maybe he's a step behind in terms of athletic attributes these days but Walker doesn't really know how to use his physical gifts effectively.

Santos ML, under 2.5, ends in KO, Santos KO all good.

 

[XociDe]

Is Joe Solecki any good? Odds are pretty close and I think Jared Gordon sucks bad.

 

[DabanggData]

Pre-lims start at 4:00 PM eastern
Main card starts at 7:00 PM eastern
Saturday, October 2, 2021
UFC Vegas 38
#UFCVegas38
Location: UFC Apex
13 fights scheduled as of Sunday, Sept 26
Thiago Santos is the -173 favorite, he turns 38 years old in January 2022, 12-6 in UFC since 2015
29 year old Johnny Walker +143 is the underdog, he will have a 6 inch reach advantage, 4 inch height advantage, and is 4-2 in the UFC

Thiago Santos quote:

“I’m sure that for this fight I’ll show something much better than my last two fights. I’m feeling better and I’m sure it will be another Thiago ‘Marreta’. These two fights that went by brought me the experience and confidence that I needed to get back to fighting like before. If you stand still for a long time, it’s different. So I got two fights, getting back into the rhythm and I’ll be much better. (I’m going to be) very aggressive, but aware. It’s not just getting in there and getting out there. I’m a veteran, so I have a lot of experience and I have to use it when fighting.
I respect him as a fighter and as a person, but on fight day I’ll show him no respect or mercy. I’ll do my job and try to knock him out. I’ll kick him hard, I’ll hit him hard. I’ll bring him the pain. It’s my job. I feel much better than in my last fight. More confident and more comfortable. I’ll show everybody.
I’ll show I still deserve to be an UFC fighter. I’ll show that I deserve to be the fourth-ranked light heavyweight in the world. I need to show everyone who I am. My last fight didn’t show it. In this fight, I want to show I’m better now than before my surgery (in both knees, following his Jon Jones fight). I’ll try to finish him and show that I deserve to fight for the belt again.”

-Thiago Santos

 

[DabanggData]

 

[Shelter]

Karol Rosa at -334 some solid parlay fodder, going up against 38 year old Bethe Correia who has admitted she's got one foot out the door, and will retire afterwards.

Rosa's 26, has a reach advantage, plus she's been training with Jessica Andrade and the Parana Vale Tudo team in Vegas for over a month already at the UFC PI so she will already be well acclimatized. I think Rosa batters her on the feet with pressure, takes her down, and overwhelms her to a second round finish or a clear decision.

 

[ballsackarino]

O'Neill looked great in her last fight. Antonina is a good matchup for her. I know Procopio death gassed but if O'Neill can put her in those positions, she's gonna turn Antonina into a pretzel.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

It is amazing anyone who has watched these two men fight believe the Johnny Walker/Thiago Santos fight can be analyzed and one fighter can have a "clear" path to victory over the other.

Johnny Walker and Thiago Santos are the fighters Sherdoggers pretend they want, but when they take an L they are dead to all their "fans".

Johnny Walker has a "bad chin" if you solely base that criteria on a fighter being susceptible to be knocked down. Johnny Walker was dropped twice in his last fight, got right back up the second time and finished his opponent seconds later. The point being Johnny Walker being knocked down does not appear to mean he is "hurt" or "rocked" if he is able to get back up immediately as he did in his last fight.

Also, another thing folks forget is Thiago Santos nearly finished Glover after being beaten down by him in the first round. He literally came right back out and nearly ended the fight if not for the toughness of Glover. The point being Santos is going to have to be put out to take him out of this fight, the guy does not quit. While it may have been clear to the viewer that Santos was losing the fight against Rakic, Santos appeared shocked by the result and semmed to believe he was winning, which could be an explanation for his timidity in the final round of that fight.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

I'm pretty happy with the Douglas De Andrade price at the moment. Pirrello has no business at UFC level.

 

[ExitLUPin]

Im playing Mullarkey Devonte just like how I played Mullarkey Khama

under 1.5

Price Oliveira DNGTD

Hernandez should be able to KO this short notice dude right?

Not seeing how Santos loses this. Thought the surgeries wouldve killed his athleticism but hes looked fine. Hes had the grappling weaknesses against Glover before and Glover has the best top game @ LHW right now in the UFC

Johny hasnt shown to be able to execute a thorough gameplan against a top opponent for more than 1 round. And despite the surgeries Santos is still athletic as hell. Still prolly the best counterstriker in the division. Rakic fight was a slow burn but their skillsets standing are similar.

Im playing Santos ML and a prop not sure what yet

I'm pretty happy with the Douglas De Andrade price at the moment. Pirrello has no business at UFC level.

He went to a decision with Arnold Allen?

 

[Vitor Apologist]

I feel like Johnny Walker is just way too damn prone for bombs that even +150 is not a good enough price for me to back him. On the flip side, we have a guy who has seemingly lost his explosiveness which was his gigantic upside…

This raises one question… how is this a main event?

 

[GoldenWolf87]

It is amazing anyone who has watched these two men fight believe the Johnny Walker/Thiago Santos fight can be analyzed and one fighter can have a "clear" path to victory over the other.

Johnny Walker and Thiago Santos are the fighters Sherdoggers pretend they want, but when they take an L they are dead to all their "fans".

Johnny Walker has a "bad chin" if you solely base that criteria on a fighter being susceptible to be knocked down. Johnny Walker was dropped twice in his last fight, got right back up the second time and finished his opponent seconds later. The point being Johnny Walker being knocked down does not appear to mean he is "hurt" or "rocked" if he is able to get back up immediately as he did in his last fight.

Also, another thing folks forget is Thiago Santos nearly finished Glover after being beaten down by him in the first round. He literally came right back out and nearly ended the fight if not for the toughness of Glover. The point being Santos is going to have to be put out to take him out of this fight, the guy does not quit. While it may have been clear to the viewer that Santos was losing the fight against Rakic, Santos appeared shocked by the result and semmed to believe he was winning, which could be an explanation for his timidity in the final round of that fight.

If you go peeking into his instagram Walker looks good. His getting serious for this fight match. Thiago Santos has the higher volume.

 

[Deleted member 510399]

Oh holy shit this is 5 rounds?

Fight doesn't go the distance seems like lock of the century, even if it's -400. Seems too fucking obvious though.

As someone mentioned previously, even after Thiago got wrestled for 2 rounds and spent so much energy, he still managed to floor Glover and almost finish him. Glover's durability is about where Walker's is tbh. Glover may actually have better recovery.

Really liking O'Neil even at -200. She hasn't been tested against someone as good as Antonina, but she has the intangibles. Phenomenal cardio/good chin/relentless pace. I've been nothing but impressed by her, albeit against lower competition.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Im playing Mullarkey Devonte just like how I played Mullarkey Khama

under 1.5

Price Oliveira DNGTD

Hernandez should be able to KO this short notice dude right?

Not seeing how Santos loses this. Thought the surgeries wouldve killed his athleticism but hes looked fine. Hes had the grappling weaknesses against Glover before and Glover has the best top game @ LHW right now in the UFC

Johny hasnt shown to be able to execute a thorough gameplan against a top opponent for more than 1 round. And despite the surgeries Santos is still athletic as hell. Still prolly the best counterstriker in the division. Rakic fight was a slow burn but their skillsets standing are similar.

Im playing Santos ML and a prop not sure what yet



He went to a decision with Arnold Allen?

I wouldn't call that especially rare.

 

[Chris Baynham]

Walker has a weird little pinhead and leads with the chin. You'd have to be crazy to bet on him.
Santos has looked poor or average since Jon Jones hobbled his knees. I'd avoid betting on him too.
I'd leave that fight well alone as it's too unpredictable.

 

[Deleted member 510399]

Just played ONeill straight @ -205, Price @ -130. I think both prices get higher throughout the week.

I'll be looking at both of their ITD props as well.

I'm not a huge fan of parlays, but O'Neill/Price/ME FDNGTD is going to be +220 or so which is enticing.

 

[Spath]

Oh holy shit this is 5 rounds?

Fight doesn't go the distance seems like lock of the century, even if it's -400. Seems too fucking obvious though.

I think people thought the exact same thing about Walker vs Krylov. Both guys are career long finishers, that rarely if ever go to decision. Somehow NCAA Krylov shows up and we got to see a grappling match where both guys gassed out.

I think that still is the only decision win for Krylov and the guy has like 40 fights I think.

So while I agree this isn’t going to a decision… There’s always a chance something totally unexpected happens.

 

[Broe.]

I think people thought the exact same thing about Walker vs Krylov. Both guys are career long finishers, that rarely if ever go to decision. Somehow NCAA Krylov shows up and we got to see a grappling match where both guys gassed out.

I think that still is the only decision win for Krylov and the guy has like 40 fights I think.

So while I agree this isn’t going to a decision… There’s always a chance something totally unexpected happens.

Yeah I also remember Santos vs Holland. Santos went for takedowns the entire fight.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Lot of flakes on this card. Low to mid tier fighters, not excited about backing them

 

[Bakayoko]

Wait,Cirkunov 2,40 over Jotko?I know he's been KO'd a few times now and moving down to Middleweight may make his chin more unreliable,but those loses were mostly against hard hitters(Walker,Spann,Oezdemir),Jotko doesn't carry that kind of power and is a step down in competition.And dropping down,Cirkunov should have even more of the strength and grappling advantage.I think Cirkunov wins a decision or subs Jotko,the line should favor Cirkunov slightly or pick em at worst.
Solecki is at 1,72,I think he should be more around 1,45-1.50.Gordon is tough and experienced but feel like Solecki has the advantage both on the feet and in the grappling.
Those are two picks I see as value,the rest I will wait for props.