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UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill

Sato is very low volume and hasn't improved at all since he moved to Sanford.

Battle has 3x more output than Sato.

Battle has good chin too. Sato is KO or bust.

I feel like Sato is the underdog trap of the weekend.
can't rate his chin as good if he never faced a heavy ko artist before. I only know he was tko in his debut amatuer, his chin should be labeled as 'suspect'.

I'm more concern about how much height and reach is being given here. prolly just a pass for me. i still don't know how gd is Battle, too many average opponents.
 
can't rate his chin as good if he never faced a heavy ko artist before. I only know he was tko in his debut amatuer, his chin should be labeled as 'suspect'.

I'm more concern about how much height and reach is being given here. prolly just a pass for me. i still don't know how gd is Battle, too many average opponents.

I'd probably favour Battle over most low output fighters unless they're a really sharp counter striker. Dude gets good volume out there.

Though my reads the last couple of weeks have been dogshit so you should probably ignore me lol.
 
I'd probably favour Battle over most low output fighters unless they're a really sharp counter striker. Dude gets good volume out there.

Though my reads the last couple of weeks have been dogshit so you should probably ignore me lol.
he got wobbled by Gore twice in round two, i cant really rate his striking high cause its 90% straight kicks and calf kicks, all i keep seeing is him throwing one of those and getting a right hand. But he's much bigger, so he can grapple Sato and stall/ground him a lot. I put sato in one of those no chance 10$ parlays by ko 400+ , nothing more than that, but i fade battle too cause he so awkward the way he stands. I don't know if its his body type but his boxing stance or center of balance seems off, like he doesn't throw punches with good mechanics, he has decent punches but he can be countered a lot being stationary.
 
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Battle is cutting to 170 for the first time in his career.

another wide line
 
Neal decision +375 is appealing

Also took FGTD +120
I like those as well. The FGTD isn't open for me yet, but I agree that it likely does so I did a bet on either of them winning by Dec. Nothing big, but the return either way is pretty sizeable.
 
Seems like everyone will be on Egger, her line got bet down a lot over the past week.
 
Instantly dislike Bryan Battle and Sergei Spivak this weekend.

Going from that Tresean Gore guy to Takashi Sato is an epic jump. Not saying he can't make it, but Sato has only lost to very high calibre opposition. Battle is high volume, Sato is SUPER low volume, almost Alvey-esque, but that's a style that does work when opponents engage. You don't get high output by not engaging. What's always underrated in fights like this is the ability of the low output fighter to read the opponent. I don't really see what Battle is going to bring that will throw Sato off? Tentatively, Sato should be favourite there IMHO.

Sergei Spivak is favourite because Sakai is on a three fight skid. But all those guys that beat him are heavy hitters. Spivak is more closely aligned to fighters like Tybura and Ivanov, though he's definitely faster than those two and has better boxing technique. Still, Spivak's striking is not as good as Sakai's. I'm not at all confident in hoping Spivak lands something heavy; and bigger, heavier dudes have failed to pin Sakai to the mat or the fence. I like Sakai here, depending on whether or not he's got the confidence to put it on Spivak.
 
Seems like everyone will be on Egger, her line got bet down a lot over the past week.
I think Egger is fooked if she can't bully herself into the clinch and instant judo TD. Bueno is not as easy to bully around as Clark and Young. Bueno higher volume and good ground game. Could get greasy fight for people who emptied their bankroll on Egger.
 
Top 1-3 worst card in UFC history?
Wtf no, Hill vs Santos we get to see a young prospect vs an old vet, Luque vs Neal is amazing, and Sakai vs Spivak is a good HW fight. Plus you got exciting as hell McKinney. Is it a great card, no but it definitely isn't a bad card, we've just been spoiled lately.
 
Instantly dislike Bryan Battle and Sergei Spivak this weekend.

Going from that Tresean Gore guy to Takashi Sato is an epic jump. Not saying he can't make it, but Sato has only lost to very high calibre opposition. Battle is high volume, Sato is SUPER low volume, almost Alvey-esque, but that's a style that does work when opponents engage. You don't get high output by not engaging. What's always underrated in fights like this is the ability of the low output fighter to read the opponent. I don't really see what Battle is going to bring that will throw Sato off? Tentatively, Sato should be favourite there IMHO.

Sergei Spivak is favourite because Sakai is on a three fight skid. But all those guys that beat him are heavy hitters. Spivak is more closely aligned to fighters like Tybura and Ivanov, though he's definitely faster than those two and has better boxing technique. Still, Spivak's striking is not as good as Sakai's. I'm not at all confident in hoping Spivak lands something heavy; and bigger, heavier dudes have failed to pin Sakai to the mat or the fence. I like Sakai here, depending on whether or not he's got the confidence to put it on Spivak.

sakai has been finished 3 times in a row …. To the ghost of overeem , overrated rozenstruik , and tuivasa whom Spivak finished

Spivak has looked better every fight …. He’s no longer the guy who turtles when hit

I think Spivak finishes him with ease - Sakai wayyyy too slow
 
sakai has been finished 3 times in a row …. To the ghost of overeem , overrated rozenstruik , and tuivasa whom Spivak finished

Spivak has looked better every fight …. He’s no longer the guy who turtles when hit

I think Spivak finishes him with ease - Sakai wayyyy too slow
Oleyinik was way slower and Spivak made it a tough battle. I do think he wins, but I doubt he'll score a finish. He has a pretty hard time finishing anyone competent.
 
Silva vs egger is a really good matchup. It’s going to be a matter of who wins the clinch. Silva will touch her on the feet but they both love the clinch and are constantly looking for it. Silva favors the Thai plum and egger favors the whizzer where she sets up her judo throws.

Moroz easily got Silva down and dominated her from top from this exact exchange.
I wish I would have grabbed egger at +140. Had a few chances but hadn’t taped.

right now I slightly favor egger but Silva is live. Eggers striking is bad and even worse off the back foot but I see this fight playing out on the ground. Silva couldn’t stop de la Rosa’s takedowns and egger will be able to get her to the mat at some point.

egger reminds me of rounda rousey. She’s got some slick transitions and set ups. She’s heavy on top and will throw good elbows when the armbar isn’t there
 
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