I like Latifi by DEC with Boser by DEC as a hedge. I think we haven't seen enough of Boser fighting a smaller guy to know if his karate style footwork and punches can keep Latifi off of him. I'm concerned about Latifi's age and motivation and with the line where it is I cannot play him. I think I'd need +180 to be confident enough to put money on him straight. I do like the over 2.5 and over 1.5, but I don't think there's a ton of value on the latter. Fight goes to DEC is also a decent play. This is a blown up 205 fight so I'm not as concerned with a finish as these other 265 fights.
I like Rozenstruik by TKO within the first 3 and am pretty confident in him. I know he beat the ghosts of Overreem and JDS, but I don't think Sakai has the tools they have. Sakai doesn't move as well or as quickly as either of them and will be the slower striker with only a 2" height advantage against a serious power puncher. I question Sakai's brown belt in bjj credential and I haven't seen much offensive wrestling from him so I doubt he gets it down or is able to finish if he does get it down. I haven't seen Sakai use low side kicks like Overeem so he'll only have his hands to keep Rozenstruik off of him and that spells disaster against a power puncher with a granite chin especially at 265. Rozenstruik put JDS face down ass up which is not easy to do. Sakai by DEC at +350 is a decent hedge as I don't see him getting a finish in this, but Sakai is nowhere near what Gane is.
Harris/Tybura looks like a great live bet position, but doesn't everyone know Harris is RD1 TKO or bust? If you can only bet between rounds and Harris doesn't get the finish it will be interesting to see the line. Might be good, might be bad. Harris TKO and Harris RD1 are ok plays. Harris hits much harder than Hardy and is a better boxer so with all the punches that Hardy landed on Tybura I imagine Harris would finish it. Tybura has always had a bad habit of crossing his feet and then throwing a leg kick from a compromised position which I think opens him up to a hard counter right; Tybura's footwork is really bad and hasn't improved much, either. I'm struggling to find a reason to lay a lot on any 265 fight, but Harris might look like value if he finishes Tybura as fast as Sakai did.
I like Baeza, but this is a big step up for him. Ponzinibbio looked bad in his return fight against a late replacement, but I don't know if Baeza has the same power that Jingliang does. I don't see a SUB finish from either of these two. Over 1.5 seems like a risky play just like the under. I think +115 or higher for Ponzinibbio has some value just like his TKO line at +300. This depends on how much Ponzinibbio has left in him and whether Baeza is a real prospect.
I don't see why everyone is piling on to Montana DLR so hard, but I'm not playing Lipski unless she gets to +220. It could be a live bet situation if MDLR can't get it down or decides to play boxer. I'm kind of getting a MDLR/Kassem vibe from this fight, but MDLR by SUB isn't high enough for me to put a little down on it. I didn't play MDLR fast enough, but -140 seems like a steal.
