MJ is the better fighter, I don’t think people are arguing that. It’s just that sometimes he’s on and sometimes he’s off.
How is Elkins a ”better BJJ player”? He’s a grinder, pretty much like Guida. Guida is the one with a lot more submission wins. I’d say neither are ”BJJ players”, they’ve added some submissions to their grinding wrestling style.
Guida is a sizeable underdog here and has a clear path to win this one, albeit chances are MJ wins most of the time.
Guida isn't submitting Johnson here.
Look at his sub victories -- the only someone notable sub win in the past 5 years is over Gomi, and we all know Gomi has dogshit BJJ, and had a foot out the door when he fought Guida.
Elkins subbed Johnson and Garagorri, both way more notable than any sub wins that Guida has in his entire career.
Yes, Johnson does show up and look like shit at times, but not against fighters of Guida's caliber. This is the biggest step down in MJ's career bar none.
Guida likes to engage with his opponents, and despite not being KO'd since Ortega hit him with a vicious knee, there's a good chance he goes to sleep here.
If he gets into a brawl with Johnson, Johnson has the precision, speed, and power advantage over Guida.
If anything, if you're going to bet on Guida, do it after rd1. Johnson never loses round 1, has the highest chance to finish him in the first, and usually falters in rounds 2/3. The line could be crazy on Guida after rd1, +500 or better.
MJ is odd for sure though. He's talented as fuck, but recently he just loses his mental after round 1. He doesn't gas, but he just makes dumb mistakes. Dominated RD1 vs Elkins. Dominated RD1 vs Ray. Dominated rds 1/2 vs Emmett.
I just see Guida moving forward like he always does and getting clipped and going down. I can't hate on people wanting to fade MJ, but I don't think this is the fight for it. And if you do, live bet it after rd1.