UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs Nascimento

[Georges Hefner]

 

[guesswhoseback]

Aldrich+123 over
Jouseet-235 over
Hadley-164 under
Goff+135 under
Despiange-170 under
Hooper+150 over
Woodson-185 over
Ricci-126 over
Rebecki-270 under
Ribovics-190 under
Ulberg-230 under
Ruziboev+125 under
Nascimento+140 over

 

[Thesnake101]

Taking Johnson here.

 

[Georges Hefner]

Nursultan is gonna beat the fuck outta Buckley. I bet on both, they competed on the same card. Nursultan is a savage

 

[sonhow]

I know Veronica has been looking better lately but does she have any of the fire power required to keep JJ at bay or stop her in her tracks?
Remember JJ throws heat actually very well, her problems mostly are on the defensive strking end.

 

[Georges Hefner]

I got my confidence back. I like Despaigne and Ruziboev the most out of everyone in this card. Is Ribovics a good fighter? I never heard of him but i know Mckinney sucks

 

[Guld]

I got my confidence back. I like Despaigne and Ruziboev the most out of everyone in this card. Is Ribovics a good fighter? I never heard of him but i know Mckinney sucks

I'm with you on Despaigne. His hype train will one day be derailed, but I have my doubts that Waldo will be the one to do it haha.

I'm going big on Woodson myself.

 

[Thesnake101]

I got my confidence back. I like Despaigne and Ruziboev the most out of everyone in this card. Is Ribovics a good fighter? I never heard of him but i know Mckinney sucks

Ribovics should win, but at his current odds he's not worth a play imo. Maybe wait until his KO/ITD line gets released if you're backing him. He's a powerful guy, rocked Radzhabov a lot in their fight.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I'm with you on Despaigne. His hype train will one day be derailed, but I have my doubts that Waldo will be the one to do it haha.

I'm going big on Woodson myself.

man i dont get the woodson one.

He basically lost to Saldana. Alex went near evens with Giga in strikes.

I know he's big. But this fight screams dog or pass.

 

[Georges Hefner]

I'm with you on Despaigne. His hype train will one day be derailed, but I have my doubts that Waldo will be the one to do it haha.

I'm going big on Woodson myself.

Its gonna take someone like Aspinall to beat Despaigne. The genetics are off the charts.

Good luck, I hope you cash. I personally don’t know much about Woodson. But i definitely heard of him

 

[Georges Hefner]

Ribovics should win, but at his current odds he's not worth a play imo. Maybe wait until his KO/ITD line gets released if you're backing him. He's a powerful guy, rocked Radzhabov a lot in their fight.

Yeah youre absolutely right. The odds arent worth it at all

 

[Guld]

man i dont get the woodson one.

He basically lost to Saldana. Alex went near evens with Giga in strikes.

I know he's big. But this fight screams dog or pass.

I feel like Woodson is really starting to peak/put it all together. Even though Caceres looked "decent" in that last fight with Giga, it felt like that was more Giga being a shell of himself/gunshy after the beating he received from Kattar.
Maybe I'm reading it wrong, but I feel like Woodson makes it look easy and this fight serves as a bit of a "he's finally got it all together" type of fight. Maybe I'll rewatch the Jourdain fight, but I don't remember that earning a Split Decision.
Caceres is also 35 yo FW (vs Woodson 31), so that should also be noted.

 

[Thesnake101]

man i dont get the woodson one.

He basically lost to Saldana. Alex went near evens with Giga in strikes.

I know he's big. But this fight screams dog or pass.

Alex also let a washed, near finished Pineda back into the fight late and displayed some of the worst defense I've seen in a fight. He's just a hard guy to get a read on.

He can go toe to toe with guys like Yair, Giga and such, or get sat down by Wang Guan, Rivera and Seung Woo Choi. Imo I think Woodson's boxing and 6'2 frame will let him control the fight, but a play on Caceres by sub wouldn't be unreasonable.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Don't like Alex at all, fancies himself as a technician and will probably fight at range getting drilled by Woofson's inspector gadget arms.

 

[Guld]

Don't like Alex at all, fancies himself as a technician and will probably fight at range getting drilled by Woofson's inspector gadget arms.

That's my feeling as well.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I feel like Woodson is really starting to peak/put it all together. Even though Caceres looked "decent" in that last fight with Giga, it felt like that was more Giga being a shell of himself/gunshy after the beating he received from Kattar.
Maybe I'm reading it wrong, but I feel like Woodson makes it look easy and this fight serves as a bit of a "he's finally got it all together" type of fight. Maybe I'll rewatch the Jourdain fight, but I don't remember that earning a Split Decision.
Caceres is also 35 yo FW (vs Woodson 31), so that should also be noted.

I don't see it. A split decision (C-grade performance with Jourdain).

Fighting Buzukya on short notice and going to a decision, even getting hit cleanly and resorting to wrestling. We saw how easily Emmers beat him down as a UFC caliber fighter should have, but Woodson did not.

Both have a common opponent in Erosa where Alex dismantled him more easily, while Woodson got beat down.

Both guys in their 30s, both going to have 30-year-old man syndrome. Plus, Alex is one of those fighters who got better as he aged, was worst in his 20s

Alex also let a washed, near finished Pineda back into the fight late and displayed some of the worst defense I've seen in a fight. He's just a hard guy to get a read on.

He can go toe to toe with guys like Yair, Giga and such, or get sat down by Wang Guan, Rivera and Seung Woo Choi. Imo I think Woodson's boxing and 6'2 frame will let him control the fight, but a play on Caceres by sub wouldn't be unreasonable.

Pineda was a different fight; he forced Alex into a lot of grappling exchanges. I don't see anything washed about Pineda. He's another fighter who got better as he aged, KOed Movlid a few years prior, and took out younger prospect Tucker Lutz. Alex still won most of the exchanges and out-grappled him.

Some of those fights are from like 10 years ago. And Choi is a good Muay Thai fighter with a national title in MT. He beat Zalal better than Woodson did, so why is getting knocked down so terrible? He still went on to dismantle Choi by submission. Is this worse than Sean getting dropped twice by a check hook to Saldana and getting dropped by a stiff jab shortly after? What are Saldana's striking credentials? Which brings me to the next threat. The submission and body triangle are things Alex can use to catch Woodson, so that should also make a favorite ML play not worth the trouble.

Don't like Alex at all, fancies himself as a technician and will probably fight at range getting drilled by Woofson's inspector gadget arms.

As for height, yes, it's something to consider. However, Alex doesn't need to get into Sean's punching range; he has the better kicking game to chop his legs and force Woodson to press forward if he's down on points. Woodson has poor leg conditioning and very thin calves; we saw this in the Erosa and Saldana fights. Woodson is a boxer by trade with some kicks in his game, but overall, he does not fight good as a long-reach fighter. We saw how Saldana caught him with a check hook moving backward. Alex has that same check hook in his arsenal, only he does it in a southpaw stance, and Alex has the same reach size as Saldana, give or take.

Bare in mind I'm not trying to make an argument as to why Alex will win cleanly; it's just highly doubtful Woodson will look anything like a -150 or -180 fighter. This fight will look more like an even odds fight, so why go with the lesser value?

 

[Thesnake101]

Pineda was a different fight; he forced Alex into a lot of grappling exchanges. I don't see anything washed about Pineda. He's another fighter who got better as he aged, KOed Movlid a few years prior, and took out younger prospect Tucker Lutz. Alex still won most of the exchanges and out-grappled him.

Some of those fights are from like 10 years ago. And Choi is a good Muay Thai fighter with a national title in MT. He beat Zalal better than Woodson did, so why is getting knocked down so terrible? He still went on to dismantle Choi by submission. Is this worse than Sean getting dropped twice by a check hook to Saldana and getting dropped by a stiff jab shortly after? What are Saldana's striking credentials? Which brings me to the next threat. The submission and body triangle are things Alex can use to catch Woodson, so that should also make a favorite ML play not worth the trouble.

You don't see anything washed about a 38 year old guy who has always been a gasser, made Fili look like a striking whiz and became Cub's first finish since 2013? The only other guy Cub has finished since was Elkins, another very much washed fighter. The Movlid fight dates back to 2019, and he was roiding for that, as for Lutz, that's a nice underdog win but Tucker is 1-3 in the UFC and only beat one decent fighter in Aguilar.

I'm not counting out Caceres since he's always been a tricky guy, but he's more than capable of laying an egg here and looking stupid.

 

[Stat_Collector]

You don't see anything washed about a 38 year old guy who has always been a gasser, made Fili look like a striking whiz and became Cub's first finish since 2013? The only other guy Cub has finished since was Elkins, another very much washed fighter. The Movlid fight dates back to 2019, and he was roiding for that, as for Lutz, that's a nice underdog win but Tucker is 1-3 in the UFC and only beat one decent fighter in Aguilar.

I'm not counting out Caceres since he's always been a tricky guy, but he's more than capable of laying an egg here and looking stupid.

Cub and Fili are solid. Cub just came off a win on Hakeem, and Fili beat Algeo.

And Alex soundly beat Pineda. Yeah he had his moments but it's not like he really won any of the rounds, the ss was one sided and Alex won on ctrl.

As for looking stupid, that's not how he's fought most recently he's only loss narrow fights , mostly by kickboxers with a more well rounded striking game. Woodson has looked far worst getting dropped by lesser fighters, not having a single ko since his dwcs against chinney Mckinney.

Oh wait and Anglin but that is low ko achievement..*

 

[Georges Hefner]

This thread is DEAD AF. Where is everyone? Always the same 5 people contributing. I like Nascimento in the main event. I think his grappling can cause Lewis problems. So yeah I’m taking 2 underdogs and one favorite. I wish Ulberg had better odds but oh well

 

[manopino]

I’m big on Borshchev, Hooper is a grappler but can’t shoot a take down and keep guys down. On the other side we have a pro level kickboxer. Waiting for the props on the KO.

Also gonna bet Ribovics KO. The kid is the next Poirier at 155.