UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett

[Stat_Collector]

x is pass, D is dog , most of my dog picks are coin flips so it can go either way.

update: Stamann 65%.
Fading Wineland , seems like he’s on his way out of the ufc and into bare knuckle fighting. sprinkling 25$ at most for a nice prop bet.

 

[Danis_champ]

but he looks to have good stamina and high volume.

nah.

Did you miss Emmett's last fight against Ige? Emmett slowed down considerably in R3. He would have 'died' in a 5 round fight.
Emmett's gas tank is okay but it's not great by any means

 

[Stat_Collector]

nah.

Did you miss Emmett's last fight against Ige? Emmett slowed down considerably in R3. He would have 'died' in a 5 round fight.
Emmett's gas tank is okay but it's not great by any means

he still fought on his toes, kattar looked winded too against giga, i think kattar has the safer style with the steady jab. im not going to die on this hill. i'll probably sprinkle 25-50$ max bet on a prop bet, or live bet this one.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

View attachment 927710

x is pass, D is dog , most of my dog picks are coin flips so it can go either way.

Interested in your reasons on Buckey > Duraev and Wineland > Stamann. I'm not really seeing those.

 

[Siver!]

I'm interested in Daukaus vs Dolidze in this fight.

Immediate red flag is Daukaus getting absolutely done by Phil Hawes.

Daukaus' t/d accuracy took an absolute hammering as a result of 0/7 - Hawes is a big, strong boy with great defensive wrestling, and Dolidze has raw power of his own as a credentialed Sambo/Grappling specialist. I think Dolidze allows Daukaus to engage him at close quarters any time, and my money is on Dolidze UNLESS Daukaus can land something significant from the outside to soften him up - in which case, advantage Daukaus.

But do we really think that's going to happen?

Honestly, I think this is a pretty tough match up for Daukaus. He doesn't have a reach advantage, doesn't have an obvious wrestling advantage, and isn't the boxer his brother is. I think the odds probably reflect Daukaus' higher output in general, and the fact that most Dolidze fights in the UFC have been a bit weird. He came in and seemed to think he was better than he was, leading to some pretty goofy spots. If he's corrected that, though, I can definitely see him getting the best of Dauk in the first two rounds, even if he then loses the third. I can also see Dolidze getting a finish if he doesn't dick around too much.

Dolidze looks pretty good value to me.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

I'm interested in Daukaus vs Dolidze in this fight.

Immediate red flag is Daukaus getting absolutely done by Phil Hawes.

Daukaus' t/d accuracy took an absolute hammering as a result of 0/7 - Hawes is a big, strong boy with great defensive wrestling, and Dolidze has raw power of his own as a credentialed Sambo/Grappling specialist. I think Dolidze allows Daukaus to engage him at close quarters any time, and my money is on Dolidze UNLESS Daukaus can land something significant from the outside to soften him up - in which case, advantage Daukaus.

But do we really think that's going to happen?

Honestly, I think this is a pretty tough match up for Daukaus. He doesn't have a reach advantage, doesn't have an obvious wrestling advantage, and isn't the boxer his brother is. I think the odds probably reflect Daukaus' higher output in general, and the fact that most Dolidze fights in the UFC have been a bit weird. He came in and seemed to think he was better than he was, leading to some pretty goofy spots. If he's corrected that, though, I can definitely see him getting the best of Dauk in the first two rounds, even if he then loses the third. I can also see Dolidze getting a finish if he doesn't dick around too much.

Dolidze looks pretty good value to me.

Dolidze is going to try and hold and hug against the cage. Daukaus is pretty active in the clinch, looking to turn in, pommel and throw elbows. Also if they hit the ground he's dangerous from everywhere.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Interested in your reasons on Buckey > Duraev and Wineland > Stamann. I'm not really seeing those.

Eddie has 86% td defense, a wrestling background and a bjj black belt. On the feet he is better and has a long reach and height advantage. he’s 37 years old so there’s that but i like these 300+ odds. Stamann is pretty one dimensional. Wineland only has trouble against strikers who can thump. betting small on that one.

Buckley is prerty competent everywhere, he’s explosive and has nice kicks. Duraev got knock down in his last fight against Kopylev who is a regional guy. i like buckley more here as he has like 6 fights in the ufc so he has had more intense training camps.

I think he has the potential to land a mean meme ko here or squeeze a close decision.

 

[Siver!]

Dolidze is going to try and hold and hug against the cage. Daukaus is pretty active in the clinch, looking to turn in, pommel and throw elbows. Also if they hit the ground he's dangerous from everywhere.

Dolidze could lose position on the ground, as he's a bit obsessed with leg locks - but I'm not sure who engages first... I kinda think Daukaus might.

I don't think Dolidze has a lot to fear from Daukaus' striking, and I think that will inform his tactics.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Eddie has 86% td defense, a wrestling background and a bjj black belt. On the feet he is better and has a long reach and height advantage. he’s 37 years old so there’s that but i like these 300+ odds. Stamann is pretty one dimensional. Wineland only has trouble against strikers who can thump. betting small on that one.

Buckley is prerty competent everywhere, he’s explosive and has nice kicks. Duraev got knock down in his last fight against Kopylev who is a regional guy. i like buckley more here as he has like 6 fights in the ufc so he has had more intense training camps.

I think he has the potential to land a mean meme ko here or squeeze a close decision.

Good shout on Wineland. That's an interesting take.

I disagree on Buckley, I think he was struggling a bit too much in the grappling with Razak to make me think he'll be able to deal with someone like Duraev.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Dolidze could lose position on the ground, as he's a bit obsessed with leg locks - but I'm not sure who engages first... I kinda think Daukaus might.

I don't think Dolidze has a lot to fear from Daukaus' striking, and I think that will inform his tactics.

Neither of them have good striking really, I'd give Daukaus the slight edge there.

 

[johno]

I'm interested in Daukaus vs Dolidze in this fight.

Immediate red flag is Daukaus getting absolutely done by Phil Hawes.

Daukaus' t/d accuracy took an absolute hammering as a result of 0/7 - Hawes is a big, strong boy with great defensive wrestling, and Dolidze has raw power of his own as a credentialed Sambo/Grappling specialist. I think Dolidze allows Daukaus to engage him at close quarters any time, and my money is on Dolidze UNLESS Daukaus can land something significant from the outside to soften him up - in which case, advantage Daukaus.

But do we really think that's going to happen?

Honestly, I think this is a pretty tough match up for Daukaus. He doesn't have a reach advantage, doesn't have an obvious wrestling advantage, and isn't the boxer his brother is. I think the odds probably reflect Daukaus' higher output in general, and the fact that most Dolidze fights in the UFC have been a bit weird. He came in and seemed to think he was better than he was, leading to some pretty goofy spots. If he's corrected that, though, I can definitely see him getting the best of Dauk in the first two rounds, even if he then loses the third. I can also see Dolidze getting a finish if he doesn't dick around too much.

Dolidze looks pretty good value to me.

Although the line may be a bit wide dolidze leaves a lot to be desired. His striking is average, volume low and his conditioning is questionable. He tends to bring a grapple heavy game plan but fails to do much meaningful work in that area. He struggled to do anything noteworthy against a 170 pounder. I would not be particularly confident in his ability to win this fight tbh

 

[Stat_Collector]

Good shout on Wineland. That's an interesting take.

I disagree on Buckley, I think he was struggling a bit too much in the grappling with Razak to make me think he'll be able to deal with someone like Duraev.

Razak is a far better striker and made Buckley gas out , making him less efficient grappling wise .Duraev doesn’t have that kind of pace to back pedal Buckley into exhaustion.

 

[ExitLUPin]

Means is a live dog against Holland IMO. I think he'd def win clinch exchanges a much deeper kit and craft there and win enough of the grappling exchanges with how wild Holland is giving up position. Obviously Holland's path is a knockout from range like against Alex and he lost that 1st round against him and Alex is beyond shot while Means has aged a lot better. I'm playing him at +200. Playing his decision line when it opens too probably hedge with Holland KO.

I like Court and Guram as well. Got them both as dogs looks like Court is a slight favorite ATM got Guram +150. Guram has an active kicking game that will give Damir issues on his counters and of Gamrot couldn't get anywhere with grappling Damir won't do much there either. Guram is more powerful and dynamic too. I think this fight will look like Benny's fight against Rashid Magomedov from years back Damir reminds me a lot of him. Don't think Guram will attempt TDs though.

Agree with Stat_Collector that even a washed Eddie deserves a play here at +350. Prime for prime he handles this matchup comfortably IMO just the layoff and mileage to worry about. Eddie's chin is shot but Cody has pillow fists can't recall him hurting anyone. His TDs are very telegraphed and he relies on a counter game with which has lack of power just results in a very one note uninspiring fighter. I'd imagine Eddie's decision line would be north of +500 too I'm playing that when it opens too.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Means is a live dog against Holland IMO. I think he'd def win clinch exchanges a much deeper kit and craft there and win enough of the grappling exchanges with how wild Holland is giving up position. Obviously Holland's path is a knockout from range like against Alex and he lost that 1st round against him and Alex is beyond shot while Means has aged a lot better. I'm playing him at +200. Playing his decision line when it opens too probably hedge with Holland KO.

I like Court and Guram as well. Got them both as dogs looks like Court is a slight favorite ATM got Guram +150. Guram has an active kicking game that will give Damir issues on his counters and of Gamrot couldn't get anywhere with grappling Damir won't do much there either. Guram is more powerful and dynamic too. I think this fight will look like Benny's fight against Rashid Magomedov from years back Damir reminds me a lot of him. Don't think Guram will attempt TDs though.

Agree with Stat_Collector that even a washed Eddie deserves a play here at +350. Prime for prime he handles this matchup comfortably IMO just the layoff and mileage to worry about. Eddie's chin is shot but Cody has pillow fists can't recall him hurting anyone. His TDs are very telegraphed and he relies on a counter game with which has lack of power just results in a very one note uninspiring fighter. I'd imagine Eddie's decision line would be north of +500 too I'm playing that when it opens too.

i’ll sprinkle like 25$ for a decision prop if its at 700+ , i think Stamann is likely to demolish the older guy and send him packing to bare knuckle fighting. but i like this fight as a fun dog bet.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Means dolidze and guram are all live at these prices

 

[sonhow]

Jaime Pickett looked better against LS than Dolidze did. Maybe it was the weight cut or something but if he was fighting someone more dangerous he would have lost that fight. Hard to see how he could hold Daukaus against the fence without breaks from ref. He actually needs the takedowns this time.

 

[Thesnake101]

Means dolidze and guram are all live at these prices

Means and Guram, yeah, but I disagree with Dolidze.

He hasn't looked that impressive outside of his Ibragimov fight tbh. Didn't he blunder some positions over Giles in that loss? Slowed down too I think, Daukaus probably finishes him late imo.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Means and Guram, yeah, but I disagree with Dolidze.

He hasn't looked that impressive outside of his Ibragimov fight tbh. Didn't he blunder some positions over Giles in that loss? Slowed down too I think, Daukaus probably finishes him late imo.

Daukaus gassed horribly against hawes and had major problems with his physicality.

dolidze is the naturally bigger guy and has better grappling chops. I’m not saying he’s a better grappler but I just don’t see the huge gap in talent between them that the price implies

And Ramos -300? These lines are out of control. Duraev over -200 because he’s Russian?

 

[XociDe]

I think Means is going to look very old in there against Holland. Not only is he 38 and been out for a year, but he has mostly fought other old/low level guys for the last 3 or 4 years. The difference in speed/athleticism is massive. Holland is far from the finished product but he should have the advantage is almost every area of this fight. Means doesn't have the ability to do what Vettori and Brunson did.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I think Means is going to look very old in there against Holland. Not only is he 38 and been out for a year, but he has mostly fought other old/low level guys for the last 3 or 4 years. The difference in speed/athleticism is massive. Holland is far from the finished product but he should have the advantage is almost every area of this fight. Means doesn't have the ability to do what Vettori and Brunson did.

What about what 34 year old oliveira did?

at over -300 Holland basically has to run through him easily. No way would I trust him at these prices.