UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2

[Trupsi]

Like you said it was short notice so up a weight class vs Jas. Kline is a 115er, and agreed she did alright considering those facts.

@sonhow you think Soriano will wrestle against Medic ? Also what makes you think Dern vs Ribas will go differently than the 1st fight ?

 

[sonhow]

I thought she did ok, it was short notice. she was able to win a round and ctrl Jas for a bit. Jas is probably a future contender or a top 10 potential.

I think Dudakova is playable if she had at least a finishing upside.

30-27 was the overall consensus score.
Every judge had 30-27 and also all recorded media except one.
Again Jas = stud and Kline most likely wins vs Duda. Most likely easily at that. But having her as one of the biggest favs is little bit much atm.

 

[sonhow]

Like you said it was short notice so up a weight class vs Jas. Kline is a 115er, and agreed she did alright considering those facts.

@sonhow you think Soriano will wrestle against Medic ? Also what makes you think Dern vs Ribas will go differently than the 1st fight ?

If he's smart he will at least mix it up. Not like Medic is a world beater or anything.
Also Ribas vs Dern 1 is an old fight. Lots has happened after that. These fights rarely play out the same way especially if lots of time has passed. Dern looked good vs the always solid Loopy and Ribas isnt powerful enough to outright ko her imo.
On second thought I might chance mind on that one closer the fight gets.

 

[BigSteve]

Well im glad I didnt lock in Harris a few days ago

 

[Stat_Collector]

30-27 was the overall consensus score.
Every judge had 30-27 and also all recorded media except one.
Again Jas = stud and Kline most likely wins vs Duda. Most likely easily at that. But having her as one of the biggest favs is little bit much atm.

wow i forgot it was that one sided. i’ll probably just pass now. thanks. I remember her taking jas down but she didn’t get enough ctrl to my liking.

 

[sonhow]

wow i forgot it was that one sided. i’ll probably just pass now. thanks. I remember her taking jas down but she didn’t get enough ctrl to my liking.

I might rewatch that myself and youre probably right that she had some success in there despite short notice and all that. But she came in as almost even odds to that one and now shes a massive fav over Duda. Seems some are pretty damn high on her.
Im probably passing myself tbh.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I might rewatch that myself and youre probably right that she had some success in there despite short notice and all that. But she came in as almost even odds to that one and now shes a massive fav over Duda. Seems some are pretty damn high on her.
Im probably passing myself tbh.

maybe you're on to something, Dudakova has beaten more seasoned opponents, a dec prop doesn't hurt.

 

[Stat_Collector]

anyone wanna discuss about Abdul/Cesar?

i feel like its' a over 2.5 type fight, or dec.

Cesar has average power, Abdul hits hard but Ceasar should survive. the public seems to think it will end in a ko.

 

[guesswhoseback]

anyone wanna discuss about Abdul/Cesar?

i feel like its' a over 2.5 type fight, or dec.

Cesar has average power, Abdul hits hard but Ceasar should survive. the public seems to think it will end in a ko.

Almedia dec

 

[mkess101]

If he's smart he will at least mix it up. Not like Medic is a world beater or anything.
Also Ribas vs Dern 1 is an old fight. Lots has happened after that. These fights rarely play out the same way especially if lots of time has passed. Dern looked good vs the always solid Loopy and Ribas isnt powerful enough to outright ko her imo.
On second thought I might chance mind on that one closer the fight gets.

Medic is pretty dangerous standing, if Soriano is smart he'll absolutely look to have a grapple heavy approach. Medic doesn't deal well with guys who can wrestle him. And Soriano is for sure capable of it.

 

[Macaque]

Kopylov doesn’t do well against southpaws (refer to his fights vs. Karl Roberson and César Almeida) since it takes away his body kicks. With that said, he’s a fair bit taller, longer and faster. Don’t want to pay the juice @1,40, however.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Ponz feels almost like it's free. i have him capped at -200

splits with Neal and Pereira should get him there.

Harris has only 5 kos in 25 fights, and his subs have been very situational, can't really see Ponz losing since he's solid everywhere.

 

[Thesnake101]

Ponz feels almost like it's free. i have him capped at -200

splits with Neal and Pereira should get him there.

Harris has only 5 kos in 25 fights, and his subs have been very situational, can't really see Ponz losing since he's solid everywhere.

I'm passing on that one. Ponz is a chinny 38yo who has fought twice in the past two years, losing both. Carlston has also shown the ability to pull wins out of his ass before, and subbing a Khabib guy and a Renzo black belt is enough cause for concern imo, if he tags Santiago with something I could see him forcing him to shoot and snagging a choke.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I'm passing on that one. Ponz is a chinny 38yo who has fought twice in the past two years, losing both. Carlston has also shown the ability to pull wins out of his ass before, and subbing a Khabib guy and a Renzo black belt is enough cause for concern imo, if he tags Santiago with something I could see him forcing him to shoot and snagging a choke.

Harris is chinny himself and only 1 year younger.

Ponz has better performances with better fighters. I always favor consistency over guys who have to pull come from behind wins.

I also generally think Ponz has a far better resume. His strikes are more cleaner and closer to a manual textbook on kickboxing.

Harris looks like he’s throwing a pitch when he swings, and looked very uncomfortable against Wells on the feet. And his sub was a lot to do with exhaustion, as wells is a bodybuilder type fighter with 2 rounds of cardio. That Saygid guy also wasn’t very experienced when they fought , he had mostly regional level wins and won a dec majority with a guy who is currently standing at 10-9 before the Harris fight. Saygid likely shot a td and exposed his neck, happens to wrestlers a lot in mma, Ponz is too seasoned to make a amateur mistake like that. Again i think Harris subs come from reactionary spur of the moment type deal, i think Ponz getting dropped and panic wrestling to a sub is not on my radar.

 

[Thesnake101]

Harris is chinny himself and only 1 year younger.

Ponz has better performances with better fighters. I always favor consistency over guys who have to pull come from behind wins.

I also generally think Ponz has a far better resume. His strikes are more cleaner and closer to a manual textbook on kickboxing.

Harris looks like he’s throwing a pitch when he swings, and looked very uncomfortable against Wells on the feet. And his sub was a lot to do with exhaustion, as wells is a bodybuilder type fighter with 2 rounds of cardio. That Saygid guy also wasn’t very experienced when they fought , he had mostly regional level wins and won a dec majority with a guy who is currently standing at 10-9 before the Harris fight. Saygid likely shot a td and exposed his neck, happens to wrestlers a lot in mma, Ponz is too seasoned to make a amateur mistake like that. Again i think Harris subs come from reactionary spur of the moment type deal, i think Ponz getting dropped and panic wrestling to a sub is not on my radar.

Here's teh fight between Harris and Saygid, he won a wrestling exchange vs Iza early in the second, established top position and did some work there for a couple of minutes and then, when Saygid tried to get back to his feet and got to his knees Carlston got a front headlock and started working from there. He's a pretty good grappler honestly, and, with how Ponzinibbio looked against Morono, I can't have much confidence in Santiago. Getting rocked by Alex and needing a comeback KO is a bad look to me in any year. Harris also blasted Impa when they fought, so it's not like he's never shown power before.

Overall, I just don't feel like being too confident in either guy is very prudent here, they're not durable, they're old and they're not very active.

Changing gears, I feel like Dern is worth a play at +175. 5 rounds, power and grappling advantage and so many years since their first fight. Don't think the odds for Amanda are justified honestly, hell the three girl fights have pretty wide odds compared to the rest of the card it's weird.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Here's teh fight between Harris and Saygid, he won a wrestling exchange vs Iza early in the second, established top position and did some work there for a couple of minutes and then, when Saygid tried to get back to his feet and got to his knees Carlston got a front headlock and started working from there. He's a pretty good grappler honestly, and, with how Ponzinibbio looked against Morono, I can't have much confidence in Santiago. Getting rocked by Alex and needing a comeback KO is a bad look to me in any year. Harris also blasted Impa when they fought, so it's not like he's never shown power before.

Overall, I just don't feel like being too confident in either guy is very prudent here, they're not durable, they're old and they're not very active.

Changing gears, I feel like Dern is worth a play at +175. 5 rounds, power and grappling advantage and so many years since their first fight. Don't think the odds for Amanda are justified honestly, hell the three girl fights have pretty wide odds compared to the rest of the card it's weird.

It really comes down to me those split dec fights with Neal and Pereira. I believe both were ranked at the time. I dont think if you swap fighters that Harris makes it out of rnd 1 with Neal , maybe Michel he gets to rnd 2.

Harris in majority of times either quick finishes or bust. Ponz has spent more cage time going through war with higher opponents in the span of 3 rounds, i favor those vets like Moicano over the quickie fighters. -115 is good value.


My opinion on the female fight is a coin flip. I tend to fade Dern since the Andrade fight, she was so damn sloppy , which was strange because she looked like a world beater against Hill.

 

[Thesnake101]

It really comes down to me those split dec fights with Neal and Pereira. I believe both were ranked at the time. I dont think if you swap fighters that Harris makes it out of rnd 1 with Neal , maybe Michel he gets to rnd 2.

Keep in mind that right before his fight with Santiago Pereira went the distance with Fialho (Andre's only decision loss in the UFC) and Price (only Gorimbo shares the honor of beating Niko without finishing him). Michel only finished two guys at WW, at MW is where he looked like a destroyer. Neal fight was a good showing for Santiago, but I believe Geoff wasn't that far removed from nearly dying and looking flat against Magny, but more importantly it was 3 years ago which is a big time for older guys.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Keep in mind that right before his fight with Santiago Pereira went the distance with Fialho (Andre's only decision loss in the UFC) and Price (only Gorimbo shares the honor of beating Niko without finishing him). Michel only finished two guys at WW, at MW is where he looked like a destroyer. Neal fight was a good showing for Santiago, but I believe Geoff wasn't that far removed from nearly dying and looking flat against Magny, but more importantly it was 3 years ago which is a big time for has almost all kos as his main method of winning, that will change dynamic michel is a counter puncher, i still rate him higher than Harris.

Fialho posed a danger because of his hands, it makes sense Michel dec with his counter puncher style, but Harris is so unorthodox and aggressive that it’s more than likely he would have been counter punched and tko

Even just look at Ponz resume

Magny top 15 from 2020-2022
Ponz ranked up to 7 at his peak.

Splits with Neal and Michel top 15
Gunner Nelson was top tier at one point
Sean Strickland who became champ.

Ponz is ranked anywhere between 20-30

Harris has never even ventured in that world. Impa came off a average win on Pitolo and has always dealt with durability issues. And Wells was beating him with ctrl before the rnd 3 sub, Wells never ventured there as well.


All things considered, why is Harris the favorite? he shouldn’t be, he doesn’t have the clean boxing or power of Leach who was top ranked at one point, why is Ponz not -200 makes no sense.

Remember too Harris is 37, he’s unlikely going to steal Ponz spot at this age.

 

[sonhow]

Pontz has been losing lots of split decisions lately. I think Ponz is the minute winner here but Harris might pull rabit out of his ass like vs Wells. At dog odds I will take Ponz Ive not been that impressed with Harris tbh. Showed some real finishing ability but in a fight with durable but very mid Jared Gooden he didnt shine at all. He just a bit reminds me of Roman Dolidze in that sense.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Medic is pretty dangerous standing, if Soriano is smart he'll absolutely look to have a grapple heavy approach. Medic doesn't deal well with guys who can wrestle him. And Soriano is for sure capable of it.

Yeah I'm pretty bullish on Puna as this big of a dog