UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori

I like a few dogs this week.

I think the odds on Ike Villanueva are way off. Nick just swings in the pocket like a spaz and Ike should be able to hang in there with him doing that. Has a solid chin and can crack, should be closer to even imo.

Lacerda I really like as a dog, Molina I don't think is that good and Lacerda is extremely aggressive and Molina mighy have issues handling it.

I think Pickett Vs Staropoli is 50/50 neither of those guys are very good and I'm not sure why Staropoli has been set aa such a big favourite.

Also like Rodrigues against Park, if he can defend the takedown attempts well he should be able to win this on the feet.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
I like a few dogs this week.

I think the odds on Ike Villanueva are way off. Nick just swings in the pocket like a spaz and Ike should be able to hang in there with him doing that. Has a solid chin and can crack, should be closer to even imo.

Lacerda I really like as a dog, Molina I don't think is that good and Lacerda is extremely aggressive and Molina mighy have issues handling it.

I think Pickett Vs Staropoli is 50/50 neither of those guys are very good and I'm not sure why Staropoli has been set aa such a big favourite.

Also like Rodrigues against Park, if he can defend the takedown attempts well he should be able to win this on the feet.
Click to expand...

Have to see more of Lacerda, but agree with the rest of your takes. I especially like Robocop, thought he looked quite impressive against Todorovic and is part of a legit camp now.
 
2203.png


https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-fight-night-costa-vs-vettori-2203

https://www.sherdog.com/events/UFC-Fight-Night-196-Costa-vs-Vettori-89999

https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/81267-ufc-fight-night

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_Fight_Night:_Costa_vs._Vettori
 
This card is not easy, i dont have a single confident pick. I might just play Alex Caceras for those odds.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
I think Pickett Vs Staropoli is 50/50 neither of those guys are very good and I'm not sure why Staropoli has been set aa such a big favourite.
Click to expand...

I don't know much about either guy but just by looking at their fight records Pickett has one win on DWCS and every other fight in the UFC he has lost. Staropoli has a record of 2-5 in UFC fights. Not that good but maybe a step up at least.
 
joenewbie said:
I don't know much about either guy but just by looking at their fight records Pickett has one win on DWCS and every other fight in the UFC he has lost. Staropoli has a record of 2-5 in UFC fights. Not that good but maybe a step up at least.
Click to expand...

Those wins were against the ghost of Thiago Alves and the pretty awful Hector Aldana though.
 
UFC Vegas 41, UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori

Saturday, October 23, 2021, UFC Apex

Prelims start at 1:00 PM eastern, 12 fights scheduled as of Sunday

#UFCVegas41









 
Last edited:
If Vettori can weather Costa's early storm by clinching him and wearing on him, he'll probably win a decision.

Costa is KO or bust here to state the obvious.

I definitely lean Marvin, but I'm not confident enough to play him yet.

Taking down Holland who came in at 183 and is scrawny with lackluster TDD is one thing, taking down Costa in the first 10 minutes will be incredibly more difficult.
 
I'm liking Dawson in this despite the odds. He should outclass Glenn in the grappling and maybe get a SUB.

Caceres is so hard to read. This is a big step up for Choi, but he's a powerhouse and can really kickbox. If he didn't load up on all his strikes I'd like him more. All the value is on Caceres and I'm not sure if Choi can TKO him. Anyone have a good read on Caceres' chin? Choi beat some good lower level Korean guys by TKO. I expect Caceres to grapple a bit and stay evasive enough that it goes long and think he can win a DEC, but Choi will bully him at some point especially early. The over looks like it'll be around -210-220 so pass.

I've been wavering on Trinaldo/Grant. At first I liked the reach and power of Grant, but Trinaldo is crafty and has never been TKO'd. Outgrappling 155ers and surviving their strikes is not enough to give me confidence especially when he's 43 and can't cut anymore. 4 weeks notice isn't helping. Might play Grant very small if I can get +105 and maybe Grant TKO. Definitely think Trinaldo is a step up and should have the experience to win. He might get an arm triangle otherwise I think he wins a DEC. If the over 2.5 was -145 I would like it as I think they'll both be conservative instead of going hard for a finish. I'll need some good plus money on Trinaldo SUB or Grant TKO to play them.

If Markos didn't have the fight IQ of a gnat I would like her to do what Van Buren did. The under 2.5 and Souza SUB may have value as Markos willingly engaged on the ground with Dern and got armbared by Casey. Dog or pass fight.

I'm waiting for the under in Jones/Patrick.

Costa/Vettori is live bet only, amirite? I'll look into Costa TKO and the over under, but I'm not hopeful. Maybe Vettori SUB will be nice and Costa will gas hard.

Ricci should outgrapple Oliveira easily and maybe get a sub, but I'm not paying -220.

Doubt we see a finish in Rose-Clark/Edwards, but screw over 2.5 at -350.

Not much I really like except Dawson and maybe Grant over 2.5 if it gets low enough. Is there an analysis thread on Sherdog or is this it?

EDIT: Gonna be real small on this and go big next week. Loving some of those matchups.
 
Last edited:
Really like Vettori here. He has the experience edge in 5 round fights and has a gift for dragging out fights-even those that he is losing-and I see him being significantly more likely to win a decision between his experience, his well roundedness, and cardio.

I really don't see a world where Costa knocks out Vettori, I believe Costa's power is overrated and will happily bet against it. And I think people need to consider that Costa doesn't have a size, strength or reach advantage over Vettori, they will both be thickly built brutes pressing against each other fairly evenly.

The way I see it, in this spot at -155 you always bet on the grinding experienced wrestler with iron chin sheerly off principle-disregarding their names and who they've fought and whatever they've done outside of the cage.
And IMO Costa as a person seems more untrustworthy and sketchy to bet on, he seems straight up unintelligent and prone to making stupid decisions.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,237,297
Messages
55,481,626
Members
174,788
Latest member
Blueguy

Share this page

Back
Top