UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales

Elise Reed is a lock to lose. She’s literally flipped flopped losses and wins her entire UFC career and she won her last fight.
 
Stats for 2025 so far:

Decision's 102
TKO/KO's 64
Subs 28

Subs are pretty rare and there's money to be made on decisions for fights that everyone thinks will end in KO when decisions are the most likely outcome
 
dwightschrute111 said:
Stats for 2025 so far:

Decision's 102
TKO/KO's 64
Subs 28

Subs are pretty rare and there's money to be made on decisions for fights that everyone thinks will end in KO when decisions are the most likely outcome
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It doesn't draw a conclusion if you are putting it out without avarage odds.Some of the wmma decision lines are 1.60-1.70
 
Bakayoko said:
It doesn't draw a conclusion if you are putting it out without avarage odds.Some of the wmma decision lines are 1.60-1.70
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Agreed. But...there sometimes are the opposite. Big odds on decision props in fights where the ML is almost even. And when you look, you see the rationale behind it is that you have 2 "finishers" going against each other. But then you see it's because each had a bunch of squash matches and their fight with each other is the first real test in awhile that either have had. And they're more reserved and conservative etc.

That's just an example.
 
i’ve always known decisions hit more, but it’s usually not worth shit.
 
Bakayoko said:
It doesn't draw a conclusion if you are putting it out without avarage odds.Some of the wmma decision lines are 1.60-1.70
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Some of the wmma decision lines are 1.2-1.3. 1.6-.7 is great line for a fight where either is likely to blow the other out of water.

But that obviosly just for fgtd. If you know the winner of dec obviously that boosts the line
 
Alright, so I do feel confident that Morales wins, but those odds are garbage so what's the best way to play this?
Does he get a stoppage over Burns? A KO specifically? or does Burns make it to the decision?
EDIT: I'm leaning KO myself.
 
Guld said:
Alright, so I do feel confident that Morales wins, but those odds are garbage so what's the best way to play this?
Does he get a stoppage over Burns? A KO specifically? or does Burns make it to the decision?
EDIT: I'm leaning KO myself.
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Under 3, ko3 with small hedge round 2.

I think Morales has the same style match up as Usman with the power of JDM, which is a nightmare blend for Burns.

I honestly look at it like this

20% chance round 1 (Dan Hooker fight)

30% chance round 2 (JDM would have likely finished him here if he didn't break his arm.)

50% round 3 (gassed out by the pace and damage , morales carries power well into round 3.)
 
Well, it looks like the tables have turned.
Jared Gordon is now the favorite, and Thiago Moises is the underdog.
 
Rhood said:
Well, it looks like the tables have turned.
Jared Gordon is now the favorite, and Thiago Moises is the underdog.
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Really?
I mean, Moises clearly has some holes in his game, but I feel like he should be able to handle Gordon.
Is anybody here backing Gordon and/or Moises?
 
Guld said:
Really?
I mean, Moises clearly has some holes in his game, but I feel like he should be able to handle Gordon.
Is anybody here backing Gordon and/or Moises?
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Honestly thinking Moises KO or itd at least. Gordon just seems so chinny at times, and I do think Thiago should be too athletic for him to overcome here.
 
 
Am I completely missing why Lisboa is the dog here?

I mean is Santos just capable of a wall and stall for 3 rounds because I don't get this line at all
 
Morales went from -800 to -550
If he gets to -400 I might take a bite.
Hopefully he has an awful first round 😆
 
Kazda1 said:
@Stat_Collector

Where are you on the Lisboa fight? Thoughts?
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she could win it, i just faded based on ground game. Luana has decent cred for her grappling, Lisboa is decent herself and has that muay thai background. I just dont have enough of a measuring stick for Lisboa because she's only had two fights in the ufc , so can she get up or cancel Luana's grappling? idk

I do think its dog or pass.
 
Stat_Collector said:
she could win it, i just faded based on ground game. Luana has decent cred for her grappling, Lisboa is decent herself and has that muay thai background. I just dont have enough of a measuring stick for Lisboa because she's only had two fights in the ufc , so can she get up or cancel Luana's grappling? idk

I do think its dog or pass.
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What about Luana's inability at times to cleanly get the fight to the ground? Like her last fight for example. She seemed to struggle versus a somewhat competent striker, no?
 
Kazda1 said:
What about Luana's inability at times to cleanly get the fight to the ground? Like her last fight for example. She seemed to struggle versus a somewhat competent striker, no?
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you did more tape study than me, I'll be honest i just looked at the ctrl time of Lisboa last fight and faded her. i started taping fights from the main event down to the prelims so i was tired out of tape fatigue.
 
Stat_Collector said:
you did more tape study than me, I'll be honest i just looked at the ctrl time of Lisboa last fight and faded her. i started taping fights from the main event down to the prelims so i was tired out of tape fatigue.
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Have to go with what I saw then. Luana beat Egger by wall and stall, but Egger had no way to keep Luana off her for 3 rounds really. Lisboa has decent get up game and has the striking to punish Luana. Lisboa on the surface has decent takedown defense as well, I'm really only concerned about wall and stall from Luana.
 
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