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UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland

What does it matter if Dolidze is coming in on short notice a weight class down? You do realize it's harder to say he's out of shape right?

Spann isn't all that great to me, and it was a close win. Allen is a scrub and is overrated. And I felt Giles lost to Krause. Your argument falls on deaf ears.
Yes but Roman looked human in his last fight against sub par competition. And you seem to think if someone doesn't have a win on a top 15 opponent then they're wins are all scrubs. Overall Giles has seen and fought better competition, that is the be all end all, he is a good under dog with a bjj brown belt and 15 fight experience. Roman has questionable cardio already , and cutting down to mw will effect his gas tank. If you are overlooking Giles then your too selective.

picks so far:
Montel Jackson
Trevin Giles
Bruno Silva
Julia Avila
 
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Honestly I like all 3 dogs at the top of the card.

You like Riddell? His wrestling is not very good. Gregor is one of the best in the division at it if not the best. Relentless pace and cardio too. Gregor is one of the worst matchups @ LW i see for Brad. De Silva and specially Mustafaev had little issue taking him down.
 
You like Riddell? His wrestling is not very good. Gregor is one of the best in the division at it if not the best. Relentless pace and cardio too. Gregor is one of the worst matchups @ LW i see for Brad. De Silva and specially Mustafaev had little issue taking him down.
I like Riddells heavy hands and short shots but yeah grappling isn't his strong suit. I'm probably underestimating Gregor a little from the Lee fight too, I still need to watch his older fights.
 
JP Buys, grappling ace and miniature Tom Hardy look alike or contender series mush of the week? After taping Silva I'd say he has the fight for your money quality. Guy lives up to the Bulldog nickname, aggressive decent chin, bjj black belt and usually gives as good as he gets against guys much bigger than him.

Buys cardio and durability concern me. He starts strong but seems to fade after heavy grappling exchanges. He also seems to give up position against other strong grapplers. His 2018 "win" over 2-0 Gamzhat should have been another GNP TKO loss much like his 1st contender fight. If he can't find an early sub Silva could out work him and maybe even stop him.

Anybody know where I can find Buys vs Luthando Biko? I'm curious how JP looks late in fights since most of his end in r1.
 
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Edit updated picks
Jesse Strader-High risk( high reward)
Trevin Giles-High risk
Johnny Eduardo -mild risk
Marion Reneau- mild risk
Gregor Gillespie- mild risk
Leonardo Santos - high risk
Montserrat Conejo- low risk
Bruno Silva - high risk
Tai Tuivasa - mild risk
Julia Avila - low risk
Max Griffin - mild risk
Adrian Yanez - mild risk
Kevin Holland - mild risk


IMO Jesse Strader looks promising for that price point, he is heavy undervalued, I can see an upset.

 
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JP Buys, grappling ace and miniature Tom Hardy look alike or contender series mush of the week? After taping Silva I'd say he has the fight for your money quality. Guy lives up to the Bulldog nickname, aggressive decent chin, bjj black belt and usually gives as good as he gets against guys much bigger than him.

Buys cardio and durability concern me. He starts strong but seems to fade after heavy grappling exchanges. He also seems to give up position against other strong grapplers. His 2018 "win" over 2-0 Gamzhat should have been another GNP TKO loss much like his 1st contender fight. If he can't find an early sub Silva could out work him and maybe even stop him.

Anybody know where I can find Buys vs Luthando Biko? I'm curious how JP looks late in fights since most of his end in r1.
I'm not a fan of Buys, I saw him exagerate a back head blow to win himself a dq victory, that displays poor competitive nature and poor heart. I'm going with Bulldog, he looked good in his last fight against the Khabib clone.
 
Johnny the old with some surprisingly sharp hands and feet for someone who hasn't fought in years. Might be more of that brazilian redwood like Trinaldo, maybe a few acai berry's too.

I can see the line movement, Birchak's chin looks like it's gone. If Johnny throws half as much as he did against Wood Birchak probably gets KOed.

 
aljamain-sterling-belt.jpg

I'm not a fan of Buys, I saw him exagerate a back head blow to win himself a dq victory, that displays poor competitive nature and poor heart. I'm going with Bulldog, he looked good in his last fight against the Khabib clone.
Apparently acting is a championship level quality now... Jokes aside yeah I'm curious about about Buys cardio and durability. He is young and a talented grappler he may have improved but Silva is hard to out grapple.
 
Johnny the old with some surprisingly sharp hands and feet for someone who hasn't fought in years. Might be more of that brazilian redwood like Trinaldo, maybe a few acai berry's too.

I can see the line movement, Birchak's chin looks like it's gone. If Johnny throws half as much as he did against Wood Birchak probably gets KOed.


Haha I literally just saw that video just now and changed my pick to Eduardo before you posted it. I was going to embed it too. He is sharp as a tack. I switched it too because of the Wood fight( he blooded him up) and his overall opp rating.
 
Eduardo-Dec
Buys-KO2 (Male Type)
Avilla-Dec
Jackson-Dec
Dolidze-KO2
Santos-Dec
Chiasson-Dec
Ruiz-Dec
Song-Dec
Yanez-Dec
Tuivasa-KO1
Riddell-Dec
Holland-Dec
 
i hope this forum doesn't turn fully into random narratives, wiki caping and judging people on their Instagrams.

What happened to all the good breakdowns? Il admit I have been pretty MIA, I was going to post my full breakdowns last card after doing an all-nighter but just didn't get to it again after a busy week. Il do one for this card just for the sake of breaking the trend
 
Johnny the old with some surprisingly sharp hands and feet for someone who hasn't fought in years. Might be more of that brazilian redwood like Trinaldo, maybe a few acai berry's too.

I can see the line movement, Birchak's chin looks like it's gone. If Johnny throws half as much as he did against Wood Birchak probably gets KOed.


His chin is shot because he got knocked down by a flush clean left hook by Gustavo?

he took the punch pretty well IMO and recovered.

can Eduardo still eat punches? Lopez hurt him with ground strikes 3 years ago. Who would ever bet on a 42 year old 135er who hasn’t fought in 3 years and is coming off multiple injuries?

The amount of movement has been pretty surprising to me. Should be fading Eduardo or passing here.
 
Does anyone have some love for Leonardo Santos as a sizeable dog? Despite his old age, I still think he looks pretty shark. He was dominating his last fight against Bogatov as well until the all out attack on his nuts. I rate Dawson as well, good talent with excellent wrestling who finally jumps up. But we have seen him get into serious trouble against Minner on the ground and I thought striking was not super impressive in his last fight. Santos is obviously a world class Black belt with solid TDD and his punches still have some pop. I could foresee a Vet lesson here.
 
Does anyone have some love for Leonardo Santos as a sizeable dog? Despite his old age, I still think he looks pretty shark. He was dominating his last fight against Bogatov as well until the all out attack on his nuts. I rate Dawson as well, good talent with excellent wrestling who finally jumps up. But we have seen him get into serious trouble against Minner on the ground and I thought striking was not super impressive in his last fight. Santos is obviously a world class Black belt with solid TDD and his punches still have some pop. I could foresee a Vet lesson here.
Problem with santos is his lack of cardio against a grinder like Dawson
 
i hope this forum doesn't turn fully into random narratives, wiki caping and judging people on their Instagrams.

What happened to all the good breakdowns? Il admit I have been pretty MIA, I was going to post my full breakdowns last card after doing an all-nighter but just didn't get to it again after a busy week. Il do one for this card just for the sake of breaking the trend
Hate to dig too much into the media but it's nice to get an idea of what kind of shape fighters are in and who they have been training with. Especially when you're dealing with long layoffs, injuries and improving prospects. Its part of what won me a bet on Condit against Matt Brown, clear from the media Brown was washed and coming off an injury.

I'd rather have as much context as possible when making my reads. Fight film or training videos tape is tape if you know what you're looking for. Personally I think it's refreshing to see people doing homework, even if I don't agree with the with approach or their reads.

It's nice to see some discussion and form of an original take. I prefer that over people skimming the props for 5 minutes and posting whatever random round or finish prop has a fat plus sign next to it and claiming value. Or worse people chiming in to criticize others without actually providing any meaningful input of their own. A bad post is one thing a pointless criticism post about that bad post is redundant at best.

Only about 2 people right now are posting media content so far, Drako and myself. Maybe we are sucking up a bit of the air in the room but it's an easy fix for anyone who feels that way. There is a button specifically for hiding unwanted content from less than useful posters. I'm tempted to try it myself. Who knows maybe I'll take the Karen approach and just make a passive aggressive complaint post whenever I see something I don't like, it seems to work for some.
 
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Does anyone have some love for Leonardo Santos as a sizeable dog? Despite his old age, I still think he looks pretty shark. He was dominating his last fight against Bogatov as well until the all out attack on his nuts. I rate Dawson as well, good talent with excellent wrestling who finally jumps up. But we have seen him get into serious trouble against Minner on the ground and I thought striking was not super impressive in his last fight. Santos is obviously a world class Black belt with solid TDD and his punches still have some pop. I could foresee a Vet lesson here.
Im goin with Leo unless hes shot from the nut apocalypse
 
His chin is shot because he got knocked down by a flush clean left hook by Gustavo?

he took the punch pretty well IMO and recovered.

can Eduardo still eat punches? Lopez hurt him with ground strikes 3 years ago. Who would ever bet on a 42 year old 135er who hasn’t fought in 3 years and is coming off multiple injuries?

The amount of movement has been pretty surprising to me. Should be fading Eduardo or passing here.
What part of Birchak's last fight showed any kind of recovery? He got hurt badly by the first 2 decent punches that landed. The guy looked like a garbage fire. He ran straight into a shot trying to throw the slowest jump knee ever. His speed and strike defense looks terrible. He keeps his hands low and leads striking exchanges by walking in a straight line with chin up.

Just based off the Wood fight I'd say not only can Eduardo take a shot he can probably still give one better than alot of prospects. I am worried Eduardo's gas tank craps out after r1 but Birchak hasn't been out of r1 in nearly 3 1/2 years either.

Birchak blames a bad weight cut for his last performance, maybe but I think he lacks discipline. He meantions having a hard time putting down the microbrews and needing someone to direct his supplements and training which doesn't make me more confident at all. I'm all for fading age but betting on a chinny, drunk, washed up "prospect" isn't the way to do it in my opinion. You say fade Eduardo or pass I say dog or pass and I need much better odds to even consider Birchak here. No way in hell I'm betting on a burnout who made is way back the UFC off a win over a 5-5 regional bum.
 
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What part of Birchak's last fight showed any kind of recovery? He got hurt badly by the first 2 decent punches that landed. The guy looked like a garbage fire. He ran straight into a shot trying to throw the slowest jump knee ever. His speed and strike defense looks terrible. He keeps his hands low and leads striking exchanges by walking in a straight line with chin up.

Just based off the Wood fight I'd say not only can Eduardo take a shot he can probably still give one better than alot of prospects. I am worried Eduardo's gas tank craps out after r1 but Birchak hasn't been out of r1 in nearly 3 1/2 years either.

Birchak blames a bad weight cut for his last performance, maybe but I think he lacks discipline. He meantions having a hard time putting down the microbrews and needing someone to direct his supplements and training which doesn't make me more confident at all. I'm all for fading age but betting on a chinny, drunk, washed up "prospect" isn't the way to do it in my opinion. You say fade Eduardo or pass I say dog or pass. No way in hell I'm betting on a burnout who made is way back the UFC off a win over a 5-5 regional bum.

he got right back up. That was a clean shot. He recovered fine

I don’t think he’s good at all but betting on Eduardo is dumb
 
Hate to dig too much into the media but it's nice to get an idea of what kind of shape fighters are in and who they have been training with. Especially when you're dealing with long layoffs, injuries and improving prospects. Its part of what won me a bet on Condit against Matt Brown, clear from the media Brown was washed and coming off an injury.

I'd rather have as much context as possible when making my reads. Fight film or training videos tape is tape if you know what you're looking for. Personally I think it's refreshing to see people doing homework, even if I don't agree with the with approach or their reads.

It's nice to see some discussion and form of an original take. I prefer that over people skimming the props for 5 minutes and posting whatever random round or finish prop has a fat plus sign next to it and claiming value. Or worse people chiming in to criticize others without actually providing any meaningful input of their own. A bad post is one thing a pointless criticism post about that bad post is redundant at best.

Only about 2 people right now are posting media content so far, Drako and myself. Maybe we are sucking up a bit of the air in the room but it's an easy fix for anyone who feels that way. There is a button specifically for hiding unwanted content from less than useful posters. I'm tempted to try it myself. Who knows maybe I'll take the Karen approach and just make a passive aggressive complaint post whenever I see something I don't like, it seems to work for some.

I agree. There's definitely value in keeping tabs on a fighter's interviews and social media to give more context. Obviously fight tape is still very important, but this kind of information can supplement that. I appreciate those posts Sono, since im not much of a social media guy myself.
 
i hope this forum doesn't turn fully into random narratives, wiki caping and judging people on their Instagrams.

What happened to all the good breakdowns? Il admit I have been pretty MIA, I was going to post my full breakdowns last card after doing an all-nighter but just didn't get to it again after a busy week. Il do one for this card just for the sake of breaking the trend

The thing about breakdowns is that we all know how these fights can go, but you never know what the fighter is thinking coming into the fight, you may think the grappler is going in there to grapple but then they go in there and do the opposite. Every now and then I watch Dan Hardy's breakdowns because he is a pro and has video to show, but reading a post on a forum does nothing for me. I've watch mma for 23 years and it always surprises me how the fights will go opposite despite what everyone said.

Its much better to me to take the ego out and focus on 'what am I getting for this under dog or favorite.' Rather than sit by and play fortune teller.
 
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