ufc fight night 127

[iGnP]

Don't encourage him. His aim is purely to troll and spread confusion. He's on something like his 50th sherdog account now I'd imagine.

I’m sure but he’s not wrong about the paranoia being really overblown. If we entertain that idea for a second, and say bookmakers look into these threads, why wouldn’t that group of people use it to their advantage to try and skew lines in their favor?

 

[ill800]

I’m sure but he’s not wrong about the paranoia being really overblown. If we entertain that idea for a second, and say bookmakers look into these threads, why wouldn’t that group of people use it to their advantage to try and skew lines in their favor?

Didn’t someone say we’ve had confirmation of kalikas lurking?

 

[piglord]

Volkov kinda sucks though, why are you betting him

don't get me wrong, werdum could absolutely take volkov down and tool him on the mat but we're talking about a +200 dog here with a clear path to victory. volkov's takedown defence has looked better in the ufc and werdum isn't some elite wrestler.

stipe used his 3 inch reach advantage and pumped that jab in werdum's face, causing him to rush in like an idiot. volkov has nice boxing combos, good understanding of distance, 4 inch reach advantage compounded by a 3 inch height advantage.

i think volkov can absolutely box his way to victory here. again i wouldn't touch him at pick 'em odds but at +200 i have no problem whatsoever taking a shot.

 

[Omni1]

Do you guys really think that if you talk about a line before it opens that an odds maker will change his opinion? Serious question

Do you really think an oddsmaker is willing to change his openers because of what $50 sherdogs bettors are saying, cmon guys

I know for a fact that that happens. Certain gamblers can definitely influence a bookie. Not going to give any shout outs. They know who they are.

 

[Omni1]

Do you guys really think that if you talk about a line before it opens that an odds maker will change his opinion? Serious question

Do you really think an oddsmaker is willing to change his openers because of what $50 sherdogs bettors are saying, cmon guys

Bookies are NOT interested in $50 sherdoggers. However, If you think that every poster on sherdog is only betting $50 units then I really don't know what to tell ya kid.

 

[Omni1]

I don’t say any of those things.
I try to not to post anything that doesn’t add value, and lately there has been a hell of a lot of nonsense being posted in this forum and it’s wasting time.

As far as you posting that jab aimed st JimGunn betting Souk - Jim is one of the most consistently good posters here, everything he posts is rationally thought out and I’d be damn surprised if you can match his ROI.

If you can’t add positive value, just fuck off.

Now that’s out of the way, you mentioned Volkov will crush Wedum....

Let’s talk about that?

I'm not on here enough to know who this kid is calling out. If it's true that he's calling out JimGunn then he's just made a fool out of himself. JimGunn is one of the few reasons I even bother browsing through here. He's been consistently making $ for years. Meanwhile this kid has been posting for less than a week. How precious. Chuckle.

 

[mkess101]

Do you guys really think that if you talk about a line before it opens that an odds maker will change his opinion? Serious question

Do you really think an oddsmaker is willing to change his openers because of what $50 sherdogs bettors are saying, cmon guys

There's regs in here betting a LOT more than that. There was a $20k bet slip posted in here not that long ago by one of the regs. Obviously online books won't take that kind of action but there are still way bigger players than you think in here.

 

[Stunna77]

On Jan for 1u at +185. Jimi controlled large portions of their first fight in the clinch, but Jan has showed a greater urgency there reversing both Clark and Cannon with ease. His wrestling/grappling and specifically him blending them with his striking looks improved. We know hes more durable, and Jimi just got cracked again. Seems like a toss-up to me.

 

[Sham5916910]

Anyone find a link to magomedov hakeem rematch? Can only find a clip of the finish

 

[mkess101]

Line movement:

A measley couple hundred dollars from me moves Machida from -150 to -170. Yeah, it really doesn't take much at all to move these lines early on.

 

[iGnP]

No one is saying $ won’t cause line movement. The discussion is regarding the opening lines being influenced by talks in these threads. There are plenty of people who are established posters who make TERRIBLE bets. Unless kalikas had tabs on who he considered to be sharp, it’d be foolish of the books to factor in our (sherdog) opinion.

 

[mkess101]

No one is saying $ won’t cause line movement. The discussion is regarding the opening lines being influenced by talks in these threads. There are plenty of people who are established posters who make TERRIBLE bets. Unless kalikas had tabs on who he considered to be sharp, it’d be foolish of the books to factor in our (sherdog) opinion.

But the thing is, it doesn't matter if the bettors are terrible or great sometimes right when it comes to setting lines. Let's say Kalikas comes in here and sees that in a betting thread the overwhelming majority like one guy to win a fight (prior to odds being set). Then he goes to a couple other forums specific to MMA betting and sees the same thing. Now he's got a big enough sample size (in some cases) that he could adjust his opening line based on what he's seen.

I mean, that's not anything outrageous, it's not entering tinfoil hat zone right? It's not gonna be on every fight obviously. Hell, it probably WON'T be on most fights. But it can happen. I mean, if he's scoped this site periodically he probably knows who the real heavy hitters are in terms of bet size too (I'm thinking of 2 guys in particular). If he sees them giving strong opinions before he sets a line, assuming he saw the $20k bet slip posted he's gonna take that into account when setting the line, at least in some cases.

 

[burge13]

Setting opening lines isn't just who they think will win, it's who they think the public will bet. Of course a line setter is taking forums, twitter etc sentiment into account. I think they would trawl twitter moreso than sherdog these days for ease of use, and how off topic forums become but they are for sure looking at who bettors talk about

 

[mkess101]

Setting opening lines isn't just who they think will win, it's who they think the public will bet. Of course a line setter is taking forums, twitter etc sentiment into account. I think they would trawl twitter moreso than sherdog these days for ease of use, and how off topic forums become but they are for sure looking at who bettors talk about

Yes, this was my point. Kalikas and any other oddsmakers are guessing how the public will bet a fight as much as anything. That's news to exactly nobody in this forum, we all know that. So taking that into account, you are spot on in that at the LEAST they will try to get a decent feel for how forums (esp this sub forum since it specifically says "MMA betting forum") view a fight. If Kalikas sees a fight as even but every forum he checks has people saying they think fighter x is gonna crush fighter y (again, esp if it's betting specific forums), of course he'll adjust when he sets the line. Why wouldn't he?

 

[iGnP]

But the thing is, it doesn't matter if the bettors are terrible or great sometimes right when it comes to setting lines. Let's say Kalikas comes in here and sees that in a betting thread the overwhelming majority like one guy to win a fight (prior to odds being set). Then he goes to a couple other forums specific to MMA betting and sees the same thing. Now he's got a big enough sample size (in some cases) that he could adjust his opening line based on what he's seen.

I mean, that's not anything outrageous, it's not entering tinfoil hat zone right? It's not gonna be on every fight obviously. Hell, it probably WON'T be on most fights. But it can happen. I mean, if he's scoped this site periodically he probably knows who the real heavy hitters are in terms of bet size too (I'm thinking of 2 guys in particular). If he sees them giving strong opinions before he sets a line, assuming he saw the $20k bet slip posted he's gonna take that into account when setting the line, at least in some cases.

There's no purpose to it imo. I hate to be that guy that brings this up, but look at dude who dropped a lot on that one fight this weekend (leaving his name out bc I dont wanna throw him under the bus or anything). If he posted his thoughts prior to the lines coming out, and K juiced the line more than what he originally planned on doing so bc he saw that the poster planned on going heavy, it would discourage that money from coming in. If the line is juiced to -140 instead of -110, does the poster make the same wager? Probably not. The books have limits in place to limit their own exposure for situations like this, but I highly doubt they would go to lengths to screw the amount money from coming in.

 

[mkess101]

There's no purpose to it imo. I hate to be that guy that brings this up, but look at dude who dropped a lot on that one fight this weekend (leaving his name out bc I dont wanna throw him under the bus or anything). If he posted his thoughts prior to the lines coming out, and K juiced the line more than what he originally planned on doing so bc he saw that the poster planned on going heavy, it would discourage that money from coming in. If the line is juiced to -140 instead of -110, does the poster make the same wager? Probably not. The books have limits in place to limit their own exposure for situations like this, but I highly doubt they would go to lengths to screw the amount money from coming in.

It would depend on the actual dialogue though. People literally post stuff like "Man I am gonna hammer fighter x if he opens at dog odds at all." So if Kalikas sees that and then a bunch of people agreeing and he was gonna open fighter x at +200, why the hell would he not open him at +125 instead? Kalikas knows he's not perfect in predicting this stuff. If he can glean inside knowledge, I gotta imagine he (or other line setters) would.

 

[iGnP]

It would depend on the actual dialogue though. People literally post stuff like "Man I am gonna hammer fighter x if he opens at dog odds at all." So if Kalikas sees that and then a bunch of people agreeing and he was gonna open fighter x at +200, why the hell would he not open him at +125 instead? Kalikas knows he's not perfect in predicting this stuff. If he can glean inside knowledge, I gotta imagine he (or other line setters) would.

because it would discourage money from being bet. if he opens it at +200 and he drops the line to +180, +150, +120 for every $1000 that is bet (for instance), the books handle on the fight will be higher. At the end of the day, that's what the book wants (a large handle). Its not as though the entire betting world will jump on a mispriced line, only a select few will and more importantly, only a certain amount of $ will be hit at the price in question. the sharper people will most likely bet it and everyone else will have to make their own bets based on the adjusted line

if he opens the line at +130 instead of +200, is it going to be hit the same way? probably not. I would assume those who are betting the big bucks are the ones who are very specific about which lines they will bet and the ones that they wont (as opposed to those bettors who say 'oh im betting on fighter A', even before lines are dropped LOL). i know for damn sure that if i planned to bet $1000 on a +200 dog, I wouldnt be betting $1000 if he decided to open the line at +120.

 

[mkess101]

because it would discourage money from being bet. if he opens it at +200 and he drops the line to +180, +150, +120 for every $1000 that is bet (for instance), the books handle on the fight will be higher. At the end of the day, that's what the book wants (a large handle). Its not as though the entire betting world will jump on a mispriced line, only a select few will and more importantly, only a certain amount of $ will be hit at the price in question. the sharper people will most likely bet it and everyone else will have to make their own bets based on the adjusted line

if he opens the line at +130 instead of +200, is it going to be hit the same way? probably not. I would assume those who are betting the big bucks are the ones who are very specific about which lines they will bet and the ones that they wont (as opposed to those bettors who say 'oh im betting on fighter A', even before lines are dropped LOL). i know for damn sure that if i planned to bet $1000 on a +200 dog, I wouldnt be betting $1000 if he decided to open the line at +120.

What you are saying makes sense except that I don't think the online books get the kind of action and want the kind of risk to exposure that you are talking about when it comes to MMA. I'm assuming that's why so many of them are so seemingly quick to limit a lot of us. I'm not limited (that I know of) at 5d now, but I was. And I wasn't even betting big sums, not 4 figures ever.

In other words, I think they are fine with limiting the amount of action vs getting more action but also leaving them way more exposed (and exposed theoretically to the people that know what they are doing). Because of the limited amount of action they get on MMA (relative to other sports anyway), they may not be able to cover their exposure if they misprice a line and a bunch of sharps put big $ on it right away.

I mean, in a lot of cases we are talking about fight pass prelims here right? Where the amount of total $ bet on them is probably extremely small, relative to other events they take action on. If they misprice a guy that should be +125 at +250 and everyone here jumps on him all the way down to +125, they may well never get enough action the other way to come close to covering all the $ bet on that guy. And so they limit people on openers sure, but if they are doing that and only letting me bet $100, how important is handle to them really?

I am guessing it probably varies from fight to fight, the amount of action they expect, etc. I'm theorizing here of course, I don't know for sure what their actual philosophy is.

 

[iGnP]

What you are saying makes sense except that I don't think the online books get the kind of action and want the kind of risk to exposure that you are talking about when it comes to MMA. I'm assuming that's why so many of them are so seemingly quick to limit a lot of us. I'm not limited (that I know of) at 5d now, but I was. And I wasn't even betting big sums, not 4 figures ever.

The reason for limiting is to have a better handle on adjusting lines. Sportsbooks in Vegas will also limit certain players if they are known winners. They’ll take their money, with the stipulation that they can adjust the lines between every bet. I know some people who can’t make $500 bets anymore without getting an “okay” from a manager. But I guarantee you, if I went to make a $500 bet at the same book, they’d take it, no questions asked, seeing as they have no idea who I am or how good of a gambler I am since I don’t make bets in Vegas. Online books are the same way, if you’re withdrawing money and it’s setting off a red flag in their system that you’re a “winner”, you’re gonna get the short end of the stick

In other words, I think they are fine with limiting the amount of action vs getting more action but also leaving them way more exposed (and exposed theoretically to the people that know what they are doing). Because of the limited amount of action they get on MMA (relative to other sports anyway), they may not be able to cover their exposure if they misprice a line and a bunch of sharps put big $ on it right away.

I mean, in a lot of cases we are talking about fight pass prelims here right? Where the amount of total $ bet on them is probably extremely small, relative to other events they take action on. If they misprice a guy that should be +125 at +250 and everyone here jumps on him all the way down to +125, they may well never get enough action the other way to come close to covering all the $ bet on that guy. And so they limit people on openers sure, but if they are doing that and only letting me bet $100, how important is handle to them really?

I can almost assure you that fights on the prelims, that inherently have more variance to them for a multitude of reasons, have lower thresholds to induce line adjustment and movement. Like I touched on in my previous post, if a +250 fighter is going to be hammered by the public, only a small amount of money is going to be bet at +250 before it is adjusted. Look at how quickly we, as a thread, bitch about someone hitting openers and ruining the price for everyone else. In none of those situations are thousands of dollars being wagered, either.

I am guessing it probably varies from fight to fight, the amount of action they expect, etc. I'm theorizing here of course, I don't know for sure what their actual philosophy is.

My responses in yellow in your quoted response^^^^

 

[Gugabe]

Got Volkov HW Champ EOTY @67 for 0.5u a month ago. Pretty happy I can hedge that easy here.