Just watched some tape on Edwards/Sobotta.
Edwards is the rightful favourite, probably should be around -160 to -170 at most.
Edwards has fast hands, fast twitch muscle fibers and he is athletic. Grapples more than he should be with his striking ability.
Sobotta has definitely improved his striking but if he just stands in front of Edwards and doesn't pressure him and make Edwards fight off his back foot, he will most likely lose.
The last three Sobotta fights, not as impressive as you might think.
Ben Saunders is completely shot as a fighter, Nicholas Dalby was battling alcoholism and depression. His loss to Kyle Noke who was on the latter part of his career, was just spamming kicks and landed the perfect body kick. Edwards is a lot faster and sets up his kicks better which should be a concern.
If Sobotta doesn't get a submission and it stays standing, he probably loses a close decision. I need around +190 and up to hit Sobotta as a dog.
I think Jans is a better dog at that price, both currently in the same + range.
