UFC 321 underdog pick of the night

[doozer]

Virtually every card there is a fighter who beats the odds. Which fighter do you think is most likely to this card? This week to try to make it more interesting. Getting it wrong for anyone keeping track is just a loss. -1. But to entice people with the incentive to pick bigger dogs for each + 100 beyond the first the picks are worth an extra win (point). I just listed the point values instead of the odds.

Tom Aspinall (-400) vs. Ciryl Gane (+300) (3 points)- For Aspinall’s UFC heavyweight title
Virna Jandiroba (+150) (1 point) vs. Mackenzie Dern (-175) - For vacant UFC women’s strawweight titl
Umar Nurmagomedov (-525) vs. Mario Bautista (+410) (4 points)- Bantamweight
Alexander Volkov (+195) (1 point) vs. Jailton Almeida (-230) - Heavyweight
Aleksandar Rakić (+100) (1 point) vs. Azamat Murzakanov (-120) - Light heavyweight
Nasrat Haqparast (-115) vs. Quillan Salkilld (-105) - Lightweight
Ikram Aliskerov (-240) vs. JunYong Park (+205) (2 points)- Middleweight
Ľudovít Klein (-135) vs. Mateusz Rębecki (+115) (1 point)- Lightweight
Valter Walker (-310) vs. Louie Sutherland (+260) (2 points)- Heavyweight
Nathaniel Wood (+125) (1 point) vs. Jose Miguel Delgado (-145) - Featherweight
Hamdy Abdelwahab (-350) vs. Chris Barnett (+285) (2 points)- Heavyweight
Azat Maksum (-350) vs. Mitch Raposo (+285) (2 points)- Flyweight
Jaqueline Amorim (-400) vs. Mizuki Inoue (+330) (3 points)- Strawweight

Grant got smashed dropping me yet again now I’m at 15-18. Looking to turn things around this week Volkov.
Still behind on watching so no shoutouts prepared yet.

Edit Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs. Matheus Camilo no longer on the card

 

[mkess101]

Rebecki

 

[Kung Fu Kowboy]

Jandiroba

@Slapjit

 

[BFoe]

I like quite a few dogs on this card. Although in fairness, a few of these lines are close.

Volkov
Rakic
Salkilld
Wood
Jandiroba

Maybe Bautista even.

 

[Hymen Crusher]

Volkov I would pick him if he was the favorite.

 

[Hymen Crusher]

Also not relevant here but how can gane only have 6 kos being a hw and built that way. He must have legit shit power

 

[Neck&Neck]

I guess Volkov or Rakic

 

[laleggenda27]

I've been driving the Aspinall train since before it was cool, but +300 is great value on Gane.

There are still a ton of questions that haven't been answered about Aspinall, and Gane is the more technical striker. I would still favor Aspinall, but +300 is too high given all the question marks.

 

[doozer]

Also not relevant here but how can gane only have 6 kos being a hw and built that way. He must have legit shit power

In fairness if he chooses to sub someone that doesn’t mean he didn’t have the power to ko them. That leaves the 4 Dec wins and 3 of them are against volkov koed only twice in 11 losses and boser only koed twice in 10 losses so those guys don’t ko easily. But yeah Gane is not known for one shot power, he gets a lot of kos but only through breaking people down.

 

[rollthedice]

Mario Bautista is my pick even tho he's a prick for what he done to Aldo

 

[Rampage_Jackson]

Volkov

 

[Rampage_Jackson]

I've been driving the Aspinall train since before it was cool, but +300 is great value on Gane.

There are still a ton of questions that haven't been answered about Aspinall, and Gane is the more technical striker. I would still favor Aspinall, but +300 is too high given all the question marks.

"more technical striker" is such a silly nonsense throw away term. Tom technically & literally separates opponents from consciousness within 1 round

 

[FEDORFAN44]

Volkov
Gane

 

[laleggenda27]

"more technical striker" is such a silly nonsense throw away term. Tom technically & literally separates opponents from consciousness within 1 round

1. Aspinall hasn't "literally" separated a single opponent from consciousness in the UFC.
2. Aspinall has (T)KO'd Blaydes, Pavlovich, Tybura, Spivac, Baudot, and Jake in the UFC. Gane is levels above all of them on the feet. And factually, he's a more technical striker than Aspinall. Conversely, Aspinall has far more power than Gane. All of these factors are relevant.

Like I said, I've been driving the Aspinall train from the beginning. But I can also be objective. I favor Aspinall, but if it stays standing, I wouldn't be surprised if Gane's distance management and leg kicks gave Aspinall problems. Personally, I'm hoping Aspinall lands a quick takedown and finishes the fight early.

 

[ChrisBenoit]

Rakic and Wood

 

[BEATDOWNS]

4 Dogs on my Tap card gonna go with Virna

 

[Croton]

Virna

 

[TITS]

CTEbecki
Jandiroba
I don't think Rakić is underdog anymore, the odds shifted a little overnight.

 

[Hdfi]

Virna

 

[JBJ was here]

1. Aspinall hasn't "literally" separated a single opponent from consciousness in the UFC.
2. Aspinall has (T)KO'd Blaydes, Pavlovich, Tybura, Spivac, Baudot, and Jake in the UFC. Gane is levels above all of them on the feet. And factually, he's a more technical striker than Aspinall. Conversely, Aspinall has far more power than Gane. All of these factors are relevant.

Like I said, I've been driving the Aspinall train from the beginning. But I can also be objective. I favor Aspinall, but if it stays standing, I wouldn't be surprised if Gane's distance management and leg kicks gave Aspinall problems. Personally, I'm hoping Aspinall lands a quick takedown and finishes the fight early.

Define "technical," making sure that your definition is one that actually matters when it comes to evaluating the effectiveness of MMA striking but doesn't tautologically equate "technical" and "effective" striking. Also make sure Gane is actually more technical by your definition.