UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev

[B.Goetz]

UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev | MMA Event | Tapology

UFC 319 took place Saturday, August 16, 2025 with 12 fights at United Center in Chicago, Illinois. View fight card, video, results, predictions, and news.

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[B.Goetz]

Early leans:

Ferreira -155. I think Bobby is shot.

Klose +130. Edson deals with pressure badly. He tries to fend people off with power punches when they get inside. Klose' best chance is to crowd him and tire him out. I will have to watch some tape on Klose, but I think he's the value side.

Chimaev -180. I have a bias against DDP. I think he's pretty terrible technically speaking for a champion. Might be clouding my judgement.

I need to take a closer look at Karine-Barbosa.

 

[jnes]

Initially I was thinking I'd do a decent sized bet on DDP, he's awkward but he wins fights and is massive, but the closer we get to the actual fight I can see Khamzat taking him down and finishing him in round 1 or early round 2. A bet on DDP means clenching your ass for the first 10 minutes.

Murphy at + money sticks out. Pico is good but this is a huge step up in comp going straight into the deep end in a tough division.

Neal at +200 sticks out, Prates is a beast and could show out in Neal who's a plodder but Neal has shown a granite chin and Prates is hittable and Geoff is probably top 3 in the division in terms of power.

Cannonier at + money even if MVP will have an insane speed advantage I just think the strength difference could be pretty crazy in it's own right. Jared has good low kicks too and could mess up MVP that way, of course he has the grappling edge too and has some vicious GnP if he can get MVP down. Weird fight honestly.

This is definitely not one of those lock cards, can see all the fights on the main card going either way.

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

+118 Murphy
Behind the jab.

MVP -186
Quick in n out combos.

Battle - 175
Mix wrestling up.

3/3 at a high stakes.

 

[PuertoRican]

I already bet:

Edson Barboza -150
Tim Elliott +260
Parlay: CDF, Hooper +102

CDF was -200 when I added him to that parlay with Hooper. I'll gladly bet more on him at his current line of -155.

I'm waiting for line movement before I bet other fighters.

 

[Aurelian]

For weeks there's been an option to bet Paddy vs Gaethje on this card for my bet site. Does anybody want to tell Paddy or Gaethje they're fighting this Saturday?

 

[guesswhoseback]

Early tease

Silva Dec
Battle-dec
Klose-dec
Hooper-dec
Godinez-dec
Oleksiejzcuk-ko
Green-dec
Elliot-dec
Cannoier-dec
Prates-ko
Murphy-dec
Du plesis-dec

 

[EndlessCritic]

If you're taking Pico here at -odds just multiply yourself because you're a square.

 

[StewDogg11]

I’m trying to remember off the top of my head all the times a defending champ has been an underdog and what the results were:

Rua vs. Jones - Lost
Evans vs. Machida - Lost
Edgar vs. Penn - Won
Weidman vs. Silva - Won
Dvalishvili vs. Nurmagomedov - Won
O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili - Lost
Pereira vs. Adesanya - Lost

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

Texeira/ Prozchaka - Loss
Edwards/ Usman II - Win
Alvarez/ McGregor - Loss
Ngannou/ Gane - Win
Woodley/ Thompson I - Draw
Woodley/ Thompson II - Win
Woodley/ Till - Win
Miocic/ Ngannou I - Win
Whittaker/ Adesanya I - Loss

It would take an hour at most to go over all the fights from the last 15 years, I don't know why you would need to "guess" when you can research thoroughly.

This fight is probably going to be of the Whittaker/ Adesanya variety instead of the Miocic/ Ngannouu anyway

 

[StewDogg11]

Texeira/ Prozchaka - Loss
Edwards/ Usman II - Win
Alvarez/ McGregor - Loss
Ngannou/ Gane - Win
Woodley/ Thompson I - Draw
Woodley/ Thompson II - Win
Woodley/ Till - Win
Miocic/ Ngannou I - Win
Whittaker/ Adesanya I - Loss

It would take an hour at most to go over all the fights from the last 15 years, I don't know why you would need to "guess" when you can research thoroughly.

This fight is probably going to be of the Whittaker/ Adesanya variety instead of the Miocic/ Ngannouu anyway

I was going off the top of my head with ones I knew to be factually correct dipshit not “guessing”. Your research doesn’t appear to be that thorough either as Tyron Woodley wasn’t an underdog to Darren Till. Woodley opened as nearly a 2-1 favorite but was eventually bet down to a pick ‘em.

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

I was going off the top of my head with ones I knew to be factually correct dipshit not “guessing”. Your research doesn’t appear to be that thorough either as Tyron Woodley wasn’t an underdog to Darren Till. Woodley opened as nearly a 2-1 favorite but was eventually bet down to a pick ‘em.

Woodley -107/ Till -112

Whoever has the longer odds is the underdog

 

[what-wut]

Khamzat by round 1 and 2 has decent odds.

 

[Aurelian]

Seeing Murphy at +165 and that looks like straight value. He's proven against much better competition than what Pico has faced.

Kind of thinking about Dricus round 1 sub at +2500. Dricus says he's going to grapple, we know Khamzat is going to grapple. It's definitely a long shot but maybe DDP snatches a neck? Those odds are tempting. If they fought 25 times I could see Dricus pulling off a round 1 sub at least once.

 

[StewDogg11]

Woodley -107/ Till -112

Whoever has the longer odds is the underdog

Or it’s generally called a pick ‘em.

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

Or it’s generally called a pick ‘em.

Facts

 

[svmr_db]

 

[guidi]

I like GM3 at his current odds, also sub is at +440 if he can survive the initial blitz from Michal seems like a decent chance Gerald pulls off another late round sub.

 

[sonhow]

Michal has been subbed a ton but its weird how this still feels stylistically good for him because he aint prone to gassing nor is Gerard a big, physical dude that will throw him around before snatching a sub. That leaves the Kevin Holland option of sub from back after knockdown but not sure if Gerard has that in him.

I dont blame for taking dog but Im kinda feeling Michal myself.

 

[Thesnake101]

Murphy KO is +760 kinda crazy given how chinny Pico is.