UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2

seems like a decent prospect, Jeka is so wild at times i can see him getting caught by a straight punch.





 
sonhow said:
Its hw mma but shouldnt Spivak be level or two higher than Waldo. Waldo is annoying af and hes made art of being annoying but will it lead him close to title? Because next step from Spivak is a contender fight.
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It doesn't really take much to put Spivak away. There have been times where he gets caught, curls up into a ball and gets tkoed..

Waldo was briefly taken down by Lima and turned his back and there was a brief moment where lima almost got the rear naked choke but then he stacked up underneath Lima who was a little high on the choke. I dont think Spivak has a high level Rnc himself, he's your typical wrestler-submission fighter who prefers arm triangles , and the armbar was from a bottom position against Marcin. If he can't find the submission early, i can see him being one heavy shot away from Acosta koing him, seems like Waldo is much more of a contender at this point than Spivak who had his shot at the top and is more of a gate keeper at this point.
 
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Stat_Collector said:
So far i just dont have any trust in Sean and his antics. He looks like he's concerned about being an influencer and doing a bunch of side quest. Merab is far more focused and invested in mma. Juxto pose both their IG and you can see who is about that life.
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Yeah that is fair enough I just figure Sean could probably get atleast 1 round, won't be a huge play or anything.
 
Stat_Collector said:
It doesn't really take much to put Spivak away. There have been times where he gets caught, curls up into a ball and gets tkoed..

Waldo was briefly taken down by Lima and turned his back and there was a brief moment where lima almost got the rear naked choke but then he stacked up underneath Lima who was a little high on the choke. I dont think Spivak has a high level Rnc himself, he's your typical wrestler-submission fighter who prefers arm triangles , and the armbar was from a bottom position against Marcin. If he can't find the submission early, i can see him being one heavy shot away from Costa koing him, seems like Waldo is much more of a contender at this point than Spivak who had his shot at the top and is more of a gate keeper at this point.
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Yeah Spivak doesnt react well to damage. But Im not sure how high on Waldo I should be just yet. He is fighting bottom of the barrel guys (to his credit he is winning) while Spivak is fighting (relative to hw) good guys. Ive said same thing a lot lately in fights and sometimes the upcoming guy wipes the floor with the "old" guy and sometimes he gets derailed.

Really depends on how much potential one sees in Waldo
 
sonhow said:
Yeah Spivak doesnt react well to damage. But Im not sure how high on Waldo I should be just yet. He is fighting bottom of the barrel guys (to his credit he is winning) while Spivak is fighting (relative to hw) good guys. Ive said same thing a lot lately in fights and sometimes the upcoming guy wipes the floor with the "old" guy and sometimes he gets derailed.

Really depends on how much potential one sees in Waldo
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if that's the case, I think to be neutral here , id either play Spivak sub 1 or dec via control time.

or live bet Waldo after R1 as Spivak gasses from takedowns, potentially gets finished in round 2 like the Cryl Gane fight. Which Waldo ko2 is the alternative. maybe get 1000+ odds.
 
Stat_Collector said:
if that's the case, I think to be neutral here , id either play Spivak sub 1 or dec via control time.

or live bet Waldo after R1 as Spivak gasses from takedowns, potentially gets finished in round 2 like the Cryl Gane fight. Which Waldo ko2 is the alternative. maybe get 1000+ odds.
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Id take shot at Waldo ko rd 2-3 with those odds for sure. He did make Spann look really bad with his boxing.
 
sonhow said:
Id take shot at Waldo ko rd 2-3 with those odds for sure. He did make Spann look really bad with his boxing.
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at worst it could be 800+ , 900+ mild, and 1000+ would be generous.

i'm leaning more towards 900+ odds. it was 700+ when he fought Spann, and Waldo was a -220 favorite, but i dont know who writes these lines.
 
Medeiros is a lot better than i remembered.

He's explosive enough here i think he gets the finish on Choinski.

I think he would have had a better chance against Oki than Aswell did.
 
King-Ryan said:
Yeah that is fair enough I just figure Sean could probably get atleast 1 round, won't be a huge play or anything.
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On second thought I'm not feeling to high on O'Malley +5.5... Waldo, Mario and Luque have my interest tho
 
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EndlessCritic said:
Why is Holland such a favorite here? Luque has only lost to studs.
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He’s got a brain injury and has shown signs of being washed along with quitting against Buckley. His last fight was impressive but it was over so quick he didn’t even really get hit. I doubt he can have much success grappling either as only big Middleweights really run over Holland on the ground. RDR probably had 40 pounds on him.
 
Merab at -275 now. If he gets to -250 I think I'll be all over that. I might grab some now anyway and hedge with O'Malley by KO just to play it safe.
EndlessCritic said:
Why is Holland such a favorite here? Luque has only lost to studs.
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Yeah, I was leaning Luque as well (I know he had some issues, but Holland is in a post-retirement mindset). At those odds I feel like I gotta go with Luque.

I like Kayla and Pyfer as well, but at those odds I'll probably just combo them with Merab in a parlay.

Oh, and I like Waldo over Spivak. If Spivak doesn't get a 1st round TD and Sub then he's done. That'll be the way to hedge the Costa ML bet IMO.
 
I'm looking for new ways to destroy my life and taking up gambling seems like a good option.

So......I'm intrigued about the Pena v Harrison fight and the potential for an upset. Yes I know the odds are there for a reason blah di blah.

Harrison has to cut a lot of weight which ultimately isn't sustainable. Not wise, and Pena is nothing if not durable.

The odds are roughly 5:1 against (fight outcome TKO/KO). Need to check odds for decision.





Last time I placed a bet was the 2010 WC so this is not going to be a recurrent theme you fucking degenerates! Lol joking.
 
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Guld said:
Merab at -275 now. If he gets to -250 I think I'll be all over that. I might grab some now anyway and hedge with O'Malley by KO just to play it safe.

Yeah, I was leaning Luque as well (I know he had some issues, but Holland is in a post-retirement mindset). At those odds I feel like I gotta go with Luque.

I like Kayla and Pyfer as well, but at those odds I'll probably just combo them with Merab in a parlay.

Oh, and I like Waldo over Spivak. If Spivak doesn't get a 1st round TD and Sub then he's done. That'll be the way to hedge the Costa ML bet IMO.
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Keep those Merab odds climbing...
 
BangBang said:
I'm looking for new ways to destroy my life and taking up gambling seems like a good option.

So......I'm intrigued about the Pena v Harrison fight and the potential for an upset. Yes I know the odds are there for a reason blah di blah.

Harrison has to cut a lot of weight which ultimately isn't sustainable. Not wise, and Pena is nothing if not durable.

The odds are roughly 5:1 against (fight outcome TKO/KO). Need to check odds for decision.





Last time I placed a bet was the 2010 WC so this is not going to be a recurrent theme you fucking degenerates! Lol joking.
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Welcome to the club, you degenerate fuck. 🤑
 
O'Malley +9.5 points is my favorite play on the card. I also played +13.5 points in different bets.

Without flukes, I don't see how Merab finishes him. He had a nice guillotine attempt in their first fight, but it only highlighted his tendency to abandon submission for position. Merab is a natural grinder. Without flying shit or spinning back shit, I don't see a finish.

As for the point spread, I expect a close fight with close rounds. I definitely favor Merab to win with his wrestling, but can he shut out Sean?

Yes, he can. But, even if he's up 4-0, I still think Sean will be going for the kill and Merab will be looking to coast to a W.

But, keep in mind, I'm a dumbass who also put a few shekels on O'Malley by sub in rds 1 and 2.
 
Goodfella86 said:
O'Malley +9.5 points is my favorite play on the card. I also played +13.5 points in different bets.

Without flukes, I don't see how Merab finishes him. He had a nice guillotine attempt in their first fight, but it only highlighted his tendency to abandon submission for position. Merab is a natural grinder. Without flying shit or spinning back shit, I don't see a finish.

As for the point spread, I expect a close fight with close rounds. I definitely favor Merab to win with his wrestling, but can he shut out Sean?

Yes, he can. But, even if he's up 4-0, I still think Sean will be going for the kill and Merab will be looking to coast to a W.

But, keep in mind, I'm a dumbass who also put a few shekels on O'Malley by sub in rds 1 and 2.
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I think that's a pretty fair read. My only concern would be the part where you say "Without flukes".
I think Sean's chances of having a fluke stoppage is greater than most.
Now that I've said that, watch it be a fluke cut stoppage against Merab haha.
 
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