UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya

Better card for betting this time around, probably going to back a bunch of the local favorites. From the get-go Jenkins and Nolan itd look good, clear spots for them to show off.
 
I currently only have DDP +118.

8 of 12 fights have favorites of at least -200.

It looks like a fun card to watch, but a tough card to bet on since you'll be paying a lot of juice.
 
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This is the real card for me- no more prelims.



Holy . that last card left me with a bad taste. No more bum fights.

Looking at the dog picks that standout pre-tape:

KKF- I think his experience and style works well here, good enough to stifle Steve's grappling, and better enough on the feet to win with leg kicks.

Jingliang - the layoff worries me. He seems to have the better resume and ko rating, not crazy about it.

DDP- This matchup might come down to who has the slight edge in upside. Izzy could be entering the latter stages of his prime, and while DDP’s chin is questionable—I've seen him get put out before—Izzy was rocked by Sean but managed to survive. I’d give Izzy the technical edge in kicks, boxing, and movement, but DDP has the advantage in power, wrestling, and BJJ. The striker vs. striker dynamic favors both in different ways, though DDP's wrestling could become a factor. It’s still uncertain whether the Izzy/Strickland fight was just an anomaly. There are a lot of unknowns in this fight.
 
Already got a hefty bet on Izzy. His weakness is people who have great jab and/or leg kick defense. Driscus is not that.
Also got a parlay of Prates + Gamrot + Erceg.
That's all for me for now.
 
Guld said:
Already got a hefty bet on Izzy. His weakness is people who have great jab and/or leg kick defense. Driscus is not that.
Also got a parlay of Prates + Gamrot + Erceg.
That's all for me for now.
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Are you gonna hedge Dricus? He has the wrestling i think
 
Does this card continue the trend of juiced lines cashing like crazy?
Tom Nolan has 1-1 record vs journeymen level fighters and was dropped bad in both of em. I know Reyes probably isnt this level and old and everytying but Tom is one of the biggest favs you see. And how does he exactly deserve this? Still cashes because you know
...Reyes.
 
DDP is reckless as hell when he crashes the pocket. Unlike Strickland who always works behind a jab and almost never overcommits. How many times have we seen Izzy counter and smoke guys who get too aggressive with him? Bobby the first time, Costa, Perreira the second fight...
And that's literally how Dricus normally fights.

I guess the other factor is whether DDP's wrestling is good enough to bully Izzy and put him on his back. Would he be able to do what Jan did? He won't have that kind of size edge. Or will it look more like Vettori where his grappling gets mostly shut down if he tries it? And will he even try to go that route?
 
Georges Hefner said:
Are you gonna hedge Dricus? He has the wrestling i think
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Izzy's age, and Driscus' wrestling ( and top control+GnP) are the only concerns I have. If Driscus can land a takedown early/often I'll definitely hedge with a livebet ( if I have time)
 
B.Goetz said:
I took Rosenstruik at -160 early. IMO he's the more precise striker.
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He's the most tempting dog on the main card for me. I don't have anything on that one yet, so I'll wait and see if I can get him at even better odds.

Edit: I'm an idiot, he's not even the underdog. I'm still gonna hold off for now though.
 
I got Luana Santos at dog odds, but I think she still has value in the -140 range. She should get the fight to the ground at will with her Judo, and has a good chance at getting a sub there. I don't think she'll be in any real danger in the striking, which is probably a wash.
 
UFCIsNOTRigged said:
The value is pretty much always on the undercard since far more watch and bet the main card than the prelims.
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it's a double edge sword because you are relying on inexperience people to make you money. Just by theory alone it's like hiring unskilled workers to do a job. My style of betting is heavily dependent on tape. I can't tape some of these prelim guys because they came from lower-level organizations. So often times you have a lot of missing information, like past behavior when it comes to fight iq.

If you look at tapology public voting, women's mma and newcomers with less than 3 ufc fights are the highest percentile of error when it comes to public voting. You are actually more likely to get these wrong.

If you do the heavy research, sure you can be the anomaly, but are you going to dive deep and find that mma fight from ' Samurai showdown 63' from 4 years ago where this prelim fighter got dropped, koed, or did some low iq tendency?

AT least with ufc regulars i know what I'm getting. They come from better gyms and better coaching. I'm going to try it out and see what happens. I've had more success with main cards than prelims.
 
B.Goetz said:
I got Luana Santos at dog odds, but I think she still has value in the -140 range. She should get the fight to the ground at will with her Judo, and has a good chance at getting a sub there. I don't think she'll be in any real danger in the striking, which is probably a wash.
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Santos should cruise here but it'll get a little hairy towards the end maybe. Her cardio sucks if you ask me, and her striking is awful (in terms of technique). Casey will be there to be hit and be able to defend some takedowns, i just think she's going to get wall and stalled. It'll hit the ground once or twice and that's likely where Casey will be in trouble.
 
Marko Atanasovik said:
I expect dominant perfomance by Gamrot similar like Makhacev.

FAV 12 - 0 UND

Many missmatches.
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There are a few things to be concerned about this matchup.

There are three certainties in life, taxes, death, and Gamrot getting knocked down by his opponent. Almost every fight he gets dropped. Even Rda old decrepit ass dropped him. He looked unflattering there. Gamrot is known for a habit of having average ctrl time. And his subs are not on par with Islam, when it comes to sub rating.

This could easily go like the Guram fight, and although some felt he should have won, it was close, and i've never seen anyone ground Hooker for long times. Jason Knight was the last guy with 4 mins of ctrl in 2016, and he's a guy that had a bunch of subs, and tried to sub hooker with no success.

This seems to be a dog or pass for me. Gamrot has always been favorited against fighters who have average wrestling and scrambles, i don't put Hooker in this category, he's out grappled quite a few guys with his own grappling and has an 80% tdd. Hooker also has a ko power advantage, better standup, durability. This comes down to how good Gamrot is at keeping Hooker guessing and being able to land his strikes and shoot takedowns to then clinch Hooker against the cage and put on a high stamina pace. Similar to how Merab and Umar fight.

This has a lot of the same elements as Sandhagen/Umar fight, Hooker biggest flaws are his koes consist of kicks and not heavy punches. And while he can stuff takedowns, his worst matchup will undoubtably be a grappler, it just depends rather Gamrot can impose his grappling, which is not impossible.
 
Stat_Collector said:
There are a few things to be concerned about this matchup.

There are three certainties in life, taxes, death, and Gamrot getting knocked down by his opponent. Almost every fight he gets dropped. Even Rda old decrepit ass dropped him. He looked unflattering there. Gamrot is known for a habit of having average ctrl time. And his subs are not on par with Islam, when it comes to sub rating.

This could easily go like the Guram fight, and although some felt he should have won, it was close, and i've never seen anyone ground Hooker for long times. Jason Knight was the last guy with 4 mins of ctrl in 2016, and he's a guy that had a bunch of subs, and tried to sub hooker with no success.

This seems to be a dog or pass for me. Gamrot has always been favorited against fighters who have average wrestling and scrambles, i don't put Hooker in this category, he's out grappled quite a few guys with his own grappling and has an 80% tdd. Hooker also has a ko power advantage, better standup, durability. This comes down to how good Gamrot is at keeping Hooker guessing and being able to land his strikes and shoot takedowns to then clinch Hooker against the cage and put on a high stamina pace. Similar to how Merab and Umar fight.

This has a lot of the same elements as Sandhagen/Umar fight, Hooker biggest flaws are his koes consist of kicks and not heavy punches. And while he can stuff takedowns, his worst matchup will undoubtably be a grappler, it just depends rather Gamrot can impose his grappling, which is not impossible.
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Gamrot By decision is the way to play it
 
Georges Hefner said:
Gamrot By decision is the way to play it
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If you knew Gamrot was likely to give up a round due to a knockdown, why risk it? Even at his best, that’s a 33% reduction in his chances of winning a decision. He got dropped by Beneil, who isn’t known for his striking power. Plus, Hooker’s takedown defense isn’t far off from guys like Guram or Fiziev, who stuffed 5 out of 6 of his takedown attempts.

Plus, Hooker is taller and has a 5 inch reach advantage.
 
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