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UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier - official bets

C.Almeida 1,050 to win 1,290

Dawson RD3 75 to win 725
Ends RD 3 27 to win 250

Jailton 1 TD in RD 1 476 to win 200
Jailton 1 TD in RD1 + Makachev 1 TD 750 to win 584

Srick/Costa Starts RD4 568 to win 425

Islam 1 TD + SUB SGP 510 to win 1,004
 
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C.Almeida 1,050 to win 1,290

Islam 1 TD + SUB SGP 510 to win 1,004
Cashed out my Kopylov bet after reading this lol.
Great card for betting as a Dustin fan. HOUSE on Islam, hopefully I lose.
 
Gall+Dawson+Strickland+Brown
100 for 921
Gall ko 1800+
25 for 450
200 for 200 Cesar/Roman over 2.5
100 Almeida Ud 425+
probably will have buyer's remorse later, but i gotta go out on my shield.
 
Machachev ITD + Strickland ML -- even money
3 unit to double it up
 
Main daily fantasy plays:

PP:
Matthews under 91.5 fantasy score. Have it paired with multiple discounted props that already cashed. Risk of around $100 that will payout around $300.
Also Hafez over 1.5 takedowns, about half that amount.

UD:
Main play is Brown over 57.5 sig strikes+ Rowe over 37.5 sig strikes. $50 to pay $150.

I have other plays for lesser amounts with discounts that won as well.

Will have some action on BOL too, but won't make it to a casino this week ans it's not an amazing card for betting imo so smaller action than normal.
 
Islam under 3.5
Strickland moneyline - I think he can possibly finish
Holland under 2.5

Sprinkle Roman as dog - Cesar hasn’t impressed me personally

Jailton under 2.5
Dawson over 1.5
Rowe as dog
Niko KO sprinkle - he’s done it before and odd are good enough to sprinkle
 
Adding 3 more to Poirier when Cesar wins
Adding 2 more to Costa when Cesar wins
Not “if” but when Cesar wins

1 UNIT - $100

Lost $1500 last month. Time to make it back

(ML)
Cesar - 5.09 to win 4.43
1 to win 0.95
Poirier - 2 to win 8.8
Costa - 2 to win 4.2
Romanov - 1 to win 2.6
Perez - 1 to win 0.52
Gall - 0.25 to win 0.8

(Parlays)
Cesar/Brown - 1 to win 1.93
Holland/Brown - 1.5 to win 1.6

(Retribution parlay)
Poirier, Costa, Holland, Brown, Cesar, Gall
Romanov
$20 to win $20k

(Overs)
Almeida v Romanov o1.5 - 1 to win 0.8
 
Mathews $75 -160
Morono + Perez + Hrgovic (boxing) $50
Morono + Hrgovic + Sheeraz (box) $50
Costa $20 +260 (boosted)
 
So this is interesting...Underdog is allowing parlays of fighters facing each other. The payouts are reduced but imo this still seems to present some massive value in certain spots.

For example, Rowe vs Matthews. Fight goes distance is -125, over 2.5 is -150. Rowe sig strikes is 39.5, Matthews is 43.5. If the fight goes deep (into rd 3), imo there's extremely little chance they both don't go far over these #'s. (For reference, Rowe is at 54.5 and Matthews 59.5 on BOL--both unders juiced but even still they clearly see a longer fight where both guys land a decent amount). If you parlay both overs of ss on UD you get it at +125. If you wanted to be cute you could hedge unders on a site like BOL because there's a big delta and it could land in the middle and cash both.
 
So with the above, I am playing a lot of overs for sig strikes on UD with opposing fighters.
 
Gall+Dawson+Strickland+Brown
100 for 921
Gall ko 1800+
25 for 450
200 for 200 Cesar/Roman over 2.5
100 Almeida Ud 425+
probably will have buyer's remorse later, but i gotta go out on my shield.
-25

added islam over 3 td 115 to win 100
 
C.Almeida 1,050 to win 1,290

Dawson RD3 75 to win 725
Ends RD 3 27 to win 250

Jailton 1 TD in RD 1 476 to win 200
Jailton 1 TD in RD1 + Makachev 1 TD 750 to win 584

Srick/Costa Starts RD4 568 to win 425

Islam 1 TD + SUB SGP 510 to win 1,004
Added:

Hafez KO 200
Jailton 2 TD's 500
Strickland O2.5 + Makachev 500 to win 348

Added Live:

Proier 300 to win 760

+400 = Peanuts. Over 1k with Zhang coming through.
 
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