UFC 297: Sean Strickland vs. Dricus Du Plessis, January 20, Toronto, Canada

[DabanggData]

UFC 297: Sean Strickland vs. Dricus Du Plessis​

January 20, Toronto, Canada​

Saturday 01.20.2024 at 06:00 PM ET

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UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis | MMA Event | Tapology

UFC 297 took place Saturday, January 20, 2024 with 12 fights at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. View fight card, video, results, predictions, and news.

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Sean Strickland vs. Dricus Du Plessis, UFC 297 | MMA Bout | Tapology

Strickland vs. Du Plessis at UFC 297 on Tapology. View Strickland vs. Du Plessis fight video, highlights, news, Twitter updates, and fight results.

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[Jasper_RB81]

Two big early bets for me.

2.5U @-220 Carlos Ulberg Win over Dominick Reyes.

UFC is really not doing Reyes any favors here, Jesus! Honestly, I feel bad for Reyes. I just don’t see any path to victory here for him other than a flash KO. This should be a pretty easy fight for Ulberg and he should get the KO as well.

Odds are not great, but I just don’t see how Reyes can win this. This matchup is pretty much tailormade for Ulberg to get another highlight KO.


2.5U @-116 Malcolm Gordon Win over Jimmy Flick

Gordon is not great, but I feel that his biggest issue is that he has maybe the worst chin in the UFC. Outside of that, I feel like he is a pretty decent fighter to be honest. Flick has no power, so even the chin of Gordon should hold up (I hope).

Losing to Hadley and Mokaev is of course not good, but these are quality opponents. The Mokaev fight was competitive and he showed good grappling, despite being submitted in the end.

Flick on the other hand has been pretty horrible since coming back and on top of that he seems to have no heart. His win over Durden looks good on paper, but that was a bit of a fluke. Flick could for sure win this via submission, no doubt about that.

I think Gordon stuffs the takedowns and wins on the feet, so at these odds I’m happy to make a big play. It’s a volatile fight, but I feel that Gordon should win this way more often than the odds suggest.

 

[burge13]

Venom Page v Holland might be added to this

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Since the Ulberg fight is off I loaded up more on the Gordon money line @-116, making this my biggest bet in over 6 months i think.

I might be crazy here, but I just think Gordon is a far better fighter than Flick. I must admit that trusting Gordon with 4U is something I never thought I would do since he can literally be finished at any time, but Flick has been so incredibly underwhelming since coming back. The Costa and Johnson fights where such horrible looks for Flick. Not only was he completely outmatched in both fights he also seemed to give up almost immediately. Gordon might have a glass jaw, but Flick doesn't have any power. The submission threat is real, but at these odds I feel like I have to roll the dice.

I don't understand how these odds are so close.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Two big early bets for me.

2.5U @-220 Carlos Ulberg Win over Dominick Reyes.

UFC is really not doing Reyes any favors here, Jesus! Honestly, I feel bad for Reyes. I just don’t see any path to victory here for him other than a flash KO. This should be a pretty easy fight for Ulberg and he should get the KO as well.

Odds are not great, but I just don’t see how Reyes can win this. This matchup is pretty much tailormade for Ulberg to get another highlight KO.


2.5U @-116 Malcolm Gordon Win over Jimmy Flick

Gordon is not great, but I feel that his biggest issue is that he has maybe the worst chin in the UFC. Outside of that, I feel like he is a pretty decent fighter to be honest. Flick has no power, so even the chin of Gordon should hold up (I hope).

Losing to Hadley and Mokaev is of course not good, but these are quality opponents. The Mokaev fight was competitive and he showed good grappling, despite being submitted in the end.

Flick on the other hand has been pretty horrible since coming back and on top of that he seems to have no heart. His win over Durden looks good on paper, but that was a bit of a fluke. Flick could for sure win this via submission, no doubt about that.

I think Gordon stuffs the takedowns and wins on the feet, so at these odds I’m happy to make a big play. It’s a volatile fight, but I feel that Gordon should win this way more often than the odds suggest.

If Gordon stuffs every takedown he will win the fight, he is the better and far more dangerous striker, but the reality is his takedown defense in the UFC currently sits at 9%. He also has a bad tendency of wildly overswinging his way into the clinch, off-balancing himself, and in doing so provides his opponent an easy opportunity to take him down.

Flick's takedowns are not great but they are imo likely enough to get Gordon down and once taken down Malcolm is easily held down for extended periods as we saw against Figueiredo.

Good luck with your bet but I don't understand the confidence in Gordon.

 

[sonhow]

Flicks looked like terrible in his past two since coming back from retirement but those were at least decent anti-grapplers he lost to. With Gordon I'd be worried just a little bit on if he's trying to be bit too grapple-heavy with Flick. Also didnt Jimmy control Nate Smith on top in the contender series so he isnt all about flying meme shit either.

Hard to not favor Gordon though with how bad Flick has looked.

 

[Oblivian]

I rarely ever play in advance nowadays, but I've added Strickland to a few doubles with past favorites. Does anyone else feel pretty strongly on that fight? I think Du Plessis can land something big, but besides that, I think Strickland works him. DDP's ride to the top has been one of the oddest ones that I can remember. I've never seen someone look as bad as him that excels.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Gillian Robertson is playable up to -230 imo. Her opponent Polyana Viana hits hard for a Strawweight but doesn't have any technical advantages nor the minute winning ability to bank rounds.

Gillian lost her last fight because her opponent was a superior athlete with faster hands, feet, better punching mechanics, and level changes. Her opponent in this fight has none of those advantages.

On a card with a lot of closely lined fights this is one of the better spots.

 

[Kenny95]

I rarely ever play in advance nowadays, but I've added Strickland to a few doubles with past favorites. Does anyone else feel pretty strongly on that fight? I think Du Plessis can land something big, but besides that, I think Strickland works him. DDP's ride to the top has been one of the oddest ones that I can remember. I've never seen someone look as bad as him that excels.

I'm big on DDP here. Strickland is one of the most popular fighters on the roster right now and is coming off a big impressive win against Adesanya, and that's really blinded people about his skills. Stricklands last 5 fights have been a mixed bag and reveal a lot more about his abilities. DDP has the power advantage, grappling advantage, is significantly stronger/larger, and has a pretty good but not elite gas tank, but at least he never quits and fights hard which is all you can ask for. I got in on DDP at +135 and +125, and if the trends continute DDP will end up being favorite or pick' em. I think if Strickland wins this fight he has to stuff DDP's TDs early, win 1 of the first 2 rounds, hope that DDP is too tired to shoot in the championship rounds, and avoid DDP's power shots the whole fight. That's a lot to ask when Stricklands only path to victory is volume punching. But yeah, DDP could always show up and give the fight away by mismanaging his gas tank and not initiating any grappling. This would be more likely scenario for Strickland to win than him just going out there and being the more dominant fighter everywhere.

 

[Oblivian]

I'm big on DDP here. Strickland is one of the most popular fighters on the roster right now and is coming off a big impressive win against Adesanya, and that's really blinded people about his skills. Stricklands last 5 fights have been a mixed bag and reveal a lot more about his abilities. DDP has the power advantage, grappling advantage, is significantly stronger/larger, and has a pretty good but not elite gas tank, but at least he never quits and fights hard which is all you can ask for. I got in on DDP at +135 and +125, and if the trends continute DDP will end up being favorite or pick' em. I think if Strickland wins this fight he has to stuff DDP's TDs early, win 1 of the first 2 rounds, hope that DDP is too tired to shoot in the championship rounds, and avoid DDP's power shots the whole fight. That's a lot to ask when Stricklands only path to victory is volume punching. But yeah, DDP could always show up and give the fight away by mismanaging his gas tank and not initiating any grappling. This would be more likely scenario for Strickland to win than him just going out there and being the more dominant fighter everywhere.

DDP may just be one of those guys that I can't read. Whittaker just looked way off in their fight, but shit, I don't know if DDP made him look that way. The headlock takedown was like wtf is going on. I definitely thought DDP did not look like a great fighter in multiple fights now. With that said, I think his power is the big risk here. He could land something big on Strickland, and I actually don't think Strickland will just volume his way to victory. I'd be shocked if he doesn't rock DDP at some point if the fight goes long, and I think he'll try to blitz if that happens. DDP has shown he is hittable and can get stunned. He also looks for breaks in fights. Strickland will be on him throughout, which again, that's my biggest worry is a big punch coming back.

The big thing that I disagree with is the grappling. Strickland is solid on the ground, but his TDD is really good too. I don't think DDP puts him away on the ground unless Strickland is rocked, and I also think DDP will gas if he keeps going for takedowns.

 

[Kenny95]

DDP may just be one of those guys that I can't read. Whittaker just looked way off in their fight, but shit, I don't know if DDP made him look that way. The headlock takedown was like wtf is going on. I definitely thought DDP did not look like a great fighter in multiple fights now. With that said, I think his power is the big risk here. He could land something big on Strickland, and I actually don't think Strickland will just volume his way to victory. I'd be shocked if he doesn't rock DDP at some point if the fight goes long, and I think he'll try to blitz if that happens. DDP has shown he is hittable and can get stunned. He also looks for breaks in fights. Strickland will be on him throughout, which again, that's my biggest worry is a big punch coming back.

The big thing that I disagree with is the grappling. Strickland is solid on the ground, but his TDD is really good too. I don't think DDP puts him away on the ground unless Strickland is rocked, and I also think DDP will gas if he keeps going for takedowns.

We pretty much agree on most of the points but I will point out that whittaker's TDD was always praised and he got outmuscled by DDP with the headlock TD like you said. DDP is just that guy, built like a tank, he can also throw strickland on the ground with no technique, and if he gets strickland on his back hes gonna bust him up with GNP (unless its an awkward TD and strickland gets right back on his feet).

 

[PuertoRican]

I rarely ever play in advance nowadays, but I've added Strickland to a few doubles with past favorites. Does anyone else feel pretty strongly on that fight? I think Du Plessis can land something big, but besides that, I think Strickland works him. DDP's ride to the top has been one of the oddest ones that I can remember. I've never seen someone look as bad as him that excels.

I'll have no more than $200 pre-fight on Strickland, and then mostly focus on live betting after Round 1/O1.5 rounds. I can also bet the DDP R1/R2 prop if I choose to take that route, and then live bet Strickland if things start looking bad for DDP.

I'm aware of the skill set of both and what makes them good fighters. I hope DDP uses his regular style of fighting again instead of trying to pace himself since it's a 5-round fight, this way it will make it much easier for me to read the fight and live bet.

 

[Oblivian]

We pretty much agree on most of the points but I will point out that whittaker's TDD was always praised and he got outmuscled by DDP with the headlock TD like you said. DDP is just that guy, built like a tank, he can also throw strickland on the ground with no technique, and if he gets strickland on his back hes gonna bust him up with GNP (unless its an awkward TD and strickland gets right back on his feet).

DDP may be the guy that I just can't read. By the time I decide to bet on him, he'll start losing lol.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Main event is really strange and I have a hard time with the read. Feel like both fighters are hugely overperforming to their actual skill level in some strange way. They both feel like the should be ranked around the 5-10 mark and not be fighting for the title against each other.

 

[sonhow]

Main event can literally go either way. I feel Strickland might beat the snot out of DDP with his basic boxing combinatilns but then get caught by something weird. I dont get any kind of invicibility aura from Sean -wouldnt surprise me in the slightesrt if he got caught. Also I just dont know about DDP. Hes something we havent quite seen yet. It might just take one loss and he hits the rock bottom.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

1.5U Strickland to Win @-123.

Watched some tape on the main event.
I feel like Strickland has absolutely zero evolution to his game. He has not gotten worse in his last few fights and he has not gotten better. He has had better results, but he is still almost exactly the same fighter that he has been for a while now. With that said, I think that, that version is good enough to beat DDP.
I just can't get over the fact that DDP looks horrible in almost every fight he is in (Exept Whittaker). Tavares, Till and Brunson are all pretty bad looks for DDP. He is incredibly sloppy and seems to gas almost immediately. He is a fking dog though so he seems to be able to fight through it at almost the same level but that has been in 3 round fights against pretty low level opponents. Tavares, Till and Brunson are all pretty washed and was as gassed as DDP was.
I feel like DDP has a style that is best suited for 3 rounds, while Strickland has a style that is best suited for 5 rounds.

If DDP doesn't KO Strickland in R1 or R2 I don't think he can keep up with the pace of Strickland.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

I rarely ever play in advance nowadays, but I've added Strickland to a few doubles with past favorites. Does anyone else feel pretty strongly on that fight? I think Du Plessis can land something big, but besides that, I think Strickland works him. DDP's ride to the top has been one of the oddest ones that I can remember. I've never seen someone look as bad as him that excels.

I cap Strickland at roughly -200 he is a total steal imo at -140.

DDP's best quality is that he is incredibly tenacious as well as having above average punching power and the physical strength of a 205er. That gives him a fighting chance because beating Strickland requires an opponent who is willing to press forward and eat shots to deliver their own since Sean is incredibly difficult to land cleanly to the head on. But what is more likely imo is DDP missing big, getting his face jabbed in for 5 rounds, and losing a wide decision.

 

[Oblivian]

I cap Strickland at roughly -200 he is a total steal imo at -140.

DDP's best quality is that he is incredibly tenacious as well as having above average punching power and the physical strength of a 205er. That gives him a fighting chance because beating Strickland requires an opponent who is willing to press forward and eat shots to deliver their own since Sean is incredibly difficult to land cleanly to the head on. But what is more likely imo is DDP missing big, getting his face jabbed in for 5 rounds, and losing a wide decision.

I think a big factor for me is that Strickland will likely keep DDP on his back foot with volume too. I think it will fuck with DDP's cardio quite a bit.

 

[PuertoRican]

I think a big factor for me is that Strickland will likely keep DDP on his back foot with volume too. I think it will fuck with DDP's cardio quite a bit.

While DDP did get his septum fixed prior to beating Whittaker, I do think Strickland's pressure will be the deciding factor, too.

That being said, I will have a few hundred on Strickland pre-fight and then live bet him more after R1. I don't want to take a massive loss if DDP were able to get another unexpected R1 finish.

 

[Guld]

While DDP did get his septum fixed prior to beating Whittaker, I do think Strickland's pressure will be the deciding factor, too.

That being said, I will have a few hundred on Strickland pre-fight and then live bet him more after R1. I don't want to take a massive loss if DDP were able to get another unexpected R1 finish.

I had the same plan. Already put my initial bet on Sean and will look to get some livebet action after Rd2 if things are going as I expect they will.