UFC 296: Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington, Las Vegas, December 16

[DabanggData]

UFC 296
Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington, Las Vegas, December 16

Saturday 12.16.2023 at 06:00 PM ET
U.S. Broadcast: Pay Per View
Prelims: ESPN
Venue: T-Mobile Arena
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/101868-ufc
https://www.tapology.com/forum/threads/74245
https://fightodds.io/odds/4779/ufc-296-edwards-vs-covington
https://www.betmma.tips/free_ufc_betting_tips.php?Event=1369

https://www.tapology.com/fightcente...6-leon-rocky-edwards-vs-colby-chaos-covington



UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington

 

[B.Goetz]

Anyone else think Menifield-Jacoby is a close fight? Menifield has looked good in his last couple fights, and he's +170 now.

 

[Thesnake101]

Luque at +300 is a no-brainer.

I do favor Garry due to his style being the same that usually gives Vicente fits, but I can't pass up those types of odds for such an experienced and usually durable guy.

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

casey o'neill to win
alexandre pantoja to win by submission
colby covington to win

 

[Guld]

Edwards at -138 seems fantastic.
Also, Emmett as an underdog to Bryce? I'm all over that as well.

 

[mkess101]

Edwards at -138 seems fantastic.
Also, Emmett as an underdog to Bryce? I'm all over that as well.

Emmett? Yikes. 38 years old and to me looks like the explosiveness has dropped off significantly. Bryce is a one trick pony but he's good at it and I'm not sure Josh will have much chance to keep Bryce off him. I don't think Emmett has much chance to win rounds at all, because Bryce absolutely will not stand and give distance. He will do what he did to Ige and immediately close and latch on and force grappling. If Emmett wins, it's gonna be because he lands one big, fight-changing shot and finishes. I don't know what the delta will be between Emmett ML and Emmett KO but if he wins it's most likely a KO so waiting for that prop would make sense to me if you want to play Josh.

IDK what the hell to think about Leon/Colby. Leon probably more in his prime and has taken the next step but Colby's style is so tough to deal with because he doesn't slow down, ever.

 

[Guld]

Emmett? Yikes. 38 years old and to me looks like the explosiveness has dropped off significantly. Bryce is a one trick pony but he's good at it and I'm not sure Josh will have much chance to keep Bryce off him. I don't think Emmett has much chance to win rounds at all, because Bryce absolutely will not stand and give distance. He will do what he did to Ige and immediately close and latch on and force grappling. If Emmett wins, it's gonna be because he lands one big, fight-changing shot and finishes. I don't know what the delta will be between Emmett ML and Emmett KO but if he wins it's most likely a KO so waiting for that prop would make sense to me if you want to play Josh.

IDK what the hell to think about Leon/Colby. Leon probably more in his prime and has taken the next step but Colby's style is so tough to deal with because he doesn't slow down, ever.

If Emmett was against another legit striker I'd agree 100%, but I feel he can stuff takedown/clinch attempts and hammer Bryce on the entries. Maybe I'm wrong, but this feels like a great style matchup for him.

It is hard to gauge Colby, what with the inactivity and only fighting like 2 guys over the course of however many years. He definitely has a chance to make it a gritty one. Betting the Over might be a really good bet for that one.

 

[mkess101]

If Emmett was against another legit striker I'd agree 100%, but I feel he can stuff takedown/clinch attempts and hammer Bryce on the entries. Maybe I'm wrong, but this feels like a great style matchup for him.

It is hard to gauge Colby, what with the inactivity and only fighting like 2 guys over the course of however many years. He definitely has a chance to make it a gritty one. Betting the Over might be a really good bet for that one.

I guess I don't rate Josh's counter grappling as highly. I mean, it's not terrible obviously but it's just...meh. Bryce just doesn't get dissuaded from pushing it, which probably means this will be a snoozer with Bryce latched onto Josh a lot but maybe unable to take him down consistently.
In his last 2 fights Josh just also looked so...IDK, disconnected? Not sure that's the right word and I know it was against 2 killers but he seemed gunshy and not just from not wanting to get hit imo. Just, off.
I like a play on Bryce ML and maybe hedge with Josh KO if the price is right.

 

[Guld]

I guess I don't rate Josh's counter grappling as highly. I mean, it's not terrible obviously but it's just...meh. Bryce just doesn't get dissuaded from pushing it, which probably means this will be a snoozer with Bryce latched onto Josh a lot but maybe unable to take him down consistently.
In his last 2 fights Josh just also looked so...IDK, disconnected? Not sure that's the right word and I know it was against 2 killers but he seemed gunshy and not just from not wanting to get hit imo. Just, off.
I like a play on Bryce ML and maybe hedge with Josh KO if the price is right.

Fair points. This might be a great fight for livebetting too. Whoever wins the first will likely be able to repeat that success for the following rounds.

 

[Thesnake101]

Gaziev at +140? Don't mind if I do.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

The bookies know MMA bettors love losing money betting against Ariane Lipski based on her " bad takedown defense" that is in actuality statistically the best takedown defense among active UFC fighters in the division (last 2 opponents went 0-19 on takedown attempts).

The lateral movement of Lipski could give O'Neil trouble if she hasn't learned to cut the cage off effectively just like it did against Maia in her last fight. Cutting the cage off will be necessary for Casey to shoot high percentage takedown entries. Lipski also is going to stick and move, not brawl in the middle of the octagon like Roxanne Modafferi did against O'Neil, which could make it difficult for Casey to get meaningful volume off.

O'Neil is better than Lipski's last 2 opponents, but all the value is on Lipski at +175, who she should be the outright betting favorite imo. Definitely dog or pass.

 

[BigSteve]

The bookies know MMA bettors love losing money betting against Ariane Lipski based on her " bad takedown defense" that is in actuality statistically the best takedown defense among active UFC fighters in the division (last 2 opponents went 0-19 on takedown attempts).

The lateral movement of Lipski could give O'Neil trouble if she hasn't learned to cut the cage off effectively just like it did against Maia in her last fight. Cutting the cage off will be necessary for Casey to shoot high percentage takedown entries. Lipski also is going to stick and move, not brawl in the middle of the octagon like Roxanne Modafferi did against O'Neil, which could make it difficult for Casey to get meaningful volume off.

O'Neil is better than Lipski's last 2 opponents, but all the value is on Lipski at +175, who she should be the outright betting favorite imo. Definitely dog or pass.

Don't disagree. What happens if Lipski ends up on her back though

 

[Thesnake101]

Don't disagree. What happens if Lipski ends up on her back though

Horny guys win.

 

[BigSteve]

Horny guys win.

I have already seen Veronica/Viana and Rosa/Lipski, I can die happy

 

[B.Goetz]

Gaziev at +140? Don't mind if I do.

From the tape I've watched, Gaziev likes to fight with his hands down, and his takedowns aren't amazing (couldn't take the smaller Stocic down, anyway), which worries me. OTOH, he's beaten better competition. Buday has been fighting the bottom of the UFC HW division, IMO. I'm taking Gaziev (+141), but might hedge with Buday tko/dec later, just in case.

 

[B.Goetz]

Ulanbekov (-164)

I don't think this fight is as close as it might first appear to be. Durden muscles his punches, and will get tired first. What is his path to victory here? He's not the better striker, he's not the better grappler, and he's bound to gas first.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Don't disagree. What happens if Lipski ends up on her back though

The last time we saw Lipski on her back was against Montana De La Rosa two and a half years ago. Theres a chance she still has no getup game and if that is the case she will at the very least concede the round and potentially get finished.

There is though an equally likely, if not greater chance, she has developed a getup game in those two and a half years that we haven't gotten to see because her taken defense has improved significantly.

O'Neil is priced as if it is a certainty Arianne still has no getup game which we don't know. What we do know is Casey didn't have the footwork in her last fight to effectively cut off the cage. She might have worked on that part of her game in the time since, we don't know, which is why imo it is dog or pass with all the value being on Lipski at +175.

 

[Danis_champ]

You guys are absolutely batshit crazy if you steam that -200 Mitchell line.

 

[Oblivian]

Anyone else think Menifield-Jacoby is a close fight? Menifield has looked good in his last couple fights, and he's +170 now.

I actually favor Menifield here.

 

[Danis_champ]

Emmett? Yikes. 38 years old and to me looks like the explosiveness has dropped off significantly. Bryce is a one trick pony but he's good at it and I'm not sure Josh will have much chance to keep Bryce off him. I don't think Emmett has much chance to win rounds at all, because Bryce absolutely will not stand and give distance. He will do what he did to Ige and immediately close and latch on and force grappling. If Emmett wins, it's gonna be because he lands one big, fight-changing shot and finishes. I don't know what the delta will be between Emmett ML and Emmett KO but if he wins it's most likely a KO so waiting for that prop would make sense to me if you want to play Josh.

IDK what the hell to think about Leon/Colby. Leon probably more in his prime and has taken the next step but Colby's style is so tough to deal with because he doesn't slow down, ever.

Unfortunately you are very off here.

Emmett should be favorite here. Easy win for Emmett, u'll see.