UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3

[BigSteve]

Ha ha, well I'm glad I trusted myself about the last ME and not Steve! But yeah I always want to know his thoughts.

As I mentioned a few times, whenever I go back and forth on these high profile discussions I lose haha. I did a post on Twitter saying I was competing so I wasent gambling as much last week, and I also had a loss in the family on competition day. I never run from my loses, losing a bit of money on that horrible performance by Yan is the least of my concerns. When I'm done spending time with the family Il be back to continue smashing 2023. Il try tape as much of the regionals as I can.

 

[mkess101]

As I mentioned a few times, whenever I go back and forth on these high profile discussions I lose haha. I did a post on Twitter saying I was competing so I wasent gambling as much last week, and I also had a loss in the family on competition day. I never run from my loses, losing a bit of money on that horrible performance by Yan is the least of my concerns. When I'm done spending time with the family Il be back to continue smashing 2023. Il try tape as much of the regionals as I can.

Dude I hope you saw I wasn't throwing shade at you at all. You know your shit, and I always make sure to read your breakdowns. Even if I disagree and am directly against you (like with Merab vs Yan) I still want to know how you view it and how you reached your conclusions.

Condolences on the loss in your family as well. Never easy, wish you the best.

 

[BigSteve]

Dude I hope you saw I wasn't throwing shade at you at all. You know your shit, and I always make sure to read your breakdowns. Even if I disagree and am directly against you (like with Merab vs Yan) I still want to know how you view it and how you reached your conclusions.

Condolences on the loss in your family as well. Never easy, wish you the best.

Na all good I just chose ur post to address everything since I have been tagged multiple times. I haven't not posted my bets for like 5 years straight since I joined this forum, been a crazy week. Thanks mate.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Na all good I just chose ur post to address everything since I have been tagged multiple times. I haven't not posted my bets for like 5 years straight since I joined this forum, been a crazy week. Thanks mate.

You miss one event and you have people @ you immediately

Greedy leeches

there are things more important than posting your bets on sherdog. You don’t owe anybody here anything. Get right, condolences.

 

[SolarSeiko]

Dolidze +220. Why? I think Marvin has peaked long ago. His striking is shit. I think the ceiling for Dolidze isn't capped yet. His finish of Jack was very impressive. I'm not confident in him to finish Marvin but see a split for Dolidze. Marvin's the better wrestler, Dolidze is the better grappler. Beating Dolidze doesn't really do anything for Marvin but I suspect beating Marvin is HUGE for Dolidze

Fiziev is relatively inexperienced compared to Justin. I think Justin has the mma skills to mix it up and beat him.... But i think once Justin's hit, he'll revert to being desperate for a win. If Justin goes full retard, Fiz by decision.

 

[Jinx_AA]

Dolidze +220. Why? I think Marvin has peaked long ago. His striking is shit. I think the ceiling for Dolidze isn't capped yet. His finish of Jack was very impressive. I'm not confident in him to finish Marvin but see a split for Dolidze. Marvin's the better wrestler, Dolidze is the better grappler. Beating Dolidze doesn't really do anything for Marvin but I suspect beating Marvin is HUGE for Dolidze

Fiziev is relatively inexperienced compared to Justin. I think Justin has the mma skills to mix it up and beat him.... But i think once Justin's hit, he'll revert to being desperate for a win. If Justin goes full retard, Fiz by decision.

when has Justin ever mixed anything up ?!?

he comes out throwing heavy leg kicks , uppercuts and reaching hooks

He has zero takedowns in the ufc I believe ? Zero subs ? And probably zero jabs

I like Justin for his warrior spirit and entertainment value …. But there’s no chance I’m picking him to win this fight

 

[Benny 97]

The only reason Fiziev gassed against Bobby is because he kept doing Azerbaijani gypsy folk dances. He actually has solid cardio

 

[Tebowned]

Dolidze +220. Why? I think Marvin has peaked long ago. His striking is shit. I think the ceiling for Dolidze isn't capped yet. His finish of Jack was very impressive. I'm not confident in him to finish Marvin but see a split for Dolidze. Marvin's the better wrestler, Dolidze is the better grappler. Beating Dolidze doesn't really do anything for Marvin but I suspect beating Marvin is HUGE for Dolidze

Fiziev is relatively inexperienced compared to Justin. I think Justin has the mma skills to mix it up and beat him.... But i think once Justin's hit, he'll revert to being desperate for a win. If Justin goes full retard, Fiz by decision.

I won’t talk anyone out of betting on a big dog but I have to disagree on Roman being the better grappler.
He’s probably more dangerous with leg locks/ Subs but not the better grappler imo.
He could prove me wrong.
Marvin is a really good grappler and trains with real grapplers as well.

He also didn’t beat anyone of note at the ADCC Oceania event and when he competed at the real ADCC, he was smashed.
Not that Marvin would’ve done much better.

 

[Omni1]

I respect your opinion. You make valid points & I’m not trying to change your mind!! But it’s important to note some trends and statistics.

1. Fighters who win rematch, end up winning trilogy (over 80% rate)

2. No defeated UFC champion successfully reclaimed their belt in an immediate rematch for 17 and a half years, until Figueiredo in 2022.

Why do you think it's important to note immediate rematch stats & trends? How does what happened between Randy Couture vs Vitor Belfort & Rose Namajunas vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk effect Kamaru Usmans ability to strike & grapple & Leon Edwards ability to strike & grapple? Those stats from past immediate rematches have ZERO to do with what is going to happen next Saturday in London England at the O2 Arena between Usman & Edwards.

 

[BigSteve]

You miss one event and you have people @ you immediately

Greedy leeches

there are things more important than posting your bets on sherdog. You don’t owe anybody here anything. Get right, condolences.

It's fine I take it as a complement. Cheers.

 

[Jinx_AA]

I wouldn’t bet much on Leon and Usman … don’t know how anyone can truly be confident here

Usman can win but he has to turn back into snoozeman and lay and pray / wall and stall grind on him for 25

so Usman has to be perfect for 25 ….. Leon just needs one round to rock him …

to me there’s more questions about Usman then Leon …..

I’ll probably end up sprinkling leon …. But again , I wouldn’t go big on either of these guys !

 

[Benny 97]

Why do you think it's important to note immediate rematch stats & trends? How does what happened between Randy Couture vs Vitor Belfort & Rose Namajunas vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk effect Kamaru Usmans ability to strike & grapple & Leon Edwards ability to strike & grapple? Those stats from past immediate rematches have ZERO to do with what is going to happen next Saturday in London England at the O2 Arena between Usman & Edwards.

Because it’s a numbers game. Idk who wins on Saturday, but based on statistics and trends, Leon has “advantage”. I’m trying to find value and edge over the bookmakers, so I can generate profit in the long term. It’s nothing serious , I’m just trying to provide some information

 

[Bakayoko]

Man I was waiting for Vettori r3 or dec to unload and then they set it at 1,65,oh man the bookies really are getting sharper

 

[sonhow]

Dolidze +220. Why? I think Marvin has peaked long ago. His striking is shit. I think the ceiling for Dolidze isn't capped yet. His finish of Jack was very impressive. I'm not confident in him to finish Marvin but see a split for Dolidze. Marvin's the better wrestler, Dolidze is the better grappler. Beating Dolidze doesn't really do anything for Marvin but I suspect beating Marvin is HUGE for Dolidze

Fiziev is relatively inexperienced compared to Justin. I think Justin has the mma skills to mix it up and beat him.... But i think once Justin's hit, he'll revert to being desperate for a win. If Justin goes full retard, Fiz by decision.

Based on mmath Vettori is much better striker. But Dolidze to me is the weirdest fighter ever. Seems like he stand on his hands in there for four minutes and then just rise and KO his opponent. His momentum just doesnt let him lose fights. Hermanson was easily beating him on the feet then manages to take him to his comfort zone with a takedown... Then immediately dies anyway after Roman absolutely forces some kind of banana split to back mount leg hook combination. I dont know. It feels like Vettori wouldnt fall to shit like that but I cant read Roman at all.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Based on mmath Vettori is much better striker. But Dolidze to me is the weirdest fighter ever. Seems like he stand on his hands in there for four minutes and then just rise and KO his opponent. His momentum just doesnt let him lose fights. Hermanson was easily beating him on the feet then manages to take him to his comfort zone with a takedown... Then immediately dies anyway after Roman absolutely forces some kind of banana split to back mount leg hook combination. I dont know. It feels like Vettori wouldnt fall to shit like that but I cant read Roman at all.

I think Roman generally has two things going for him, the grappling (can't see him catching Marvin in anything funky) and the power (Marvin has an all time level chin)

 

[sonhow]

I think Roman generally has two things going for him, the grappling (can't see him catching Marvin in anything funky) and the power (Marvin has an all time level chin)

Yeah that I keep telling myself. But maybe lightning will strike Marvin and Roman gets the stoppage

 

[guesswhoseback]

Herbert/Klein-OV 2.5+135 I dont know the odds for Over 1.5 but if thats below -200 ill bet that
Todorich/Duncan-UN No Odds Id assume 1.5 -130
Santos/Murphy-OV 2.5-150
Patterson/Ashmoz-UN 2.5-150
Duncan+100
Doldize+230
Barabena+325
Gathje/Fiziev-UN 2.5-150
Edwards/Usman-OV 4.5-185

This is what ill prob bet if any odds go to -200 or above I wont bet

 

[Bakayoko]

Yeah that I keep telling myself. But maybe lightning will strike Marvin and Roman gets the stoppage

Eventually everbody goes down,but I don't think it's happening soon,the way he ate Whittaker's high kick like nothing happened is crazy.Dolidze needs sub or dec,could be a close fight though,Dolidze is a good grappler and could land more significant shots but I believe Vettori takes it by avoiding the subs and outvoluming Dolidze

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Anybody have a guess as to what round future champion Veronica Hardy gets finished in?

 

[Bakayoko]

Patterson Vs Yanal is just a levels fight imo, I'm not really sure why they signed Yanal although he's a pretty strong dude I guess. Sam is much more experienced and has mixed it with a much higher level of competition.

Probably because of how these two fights ended.






The UFC brass probably get a kick out of watching him abandon all caution on the feet. He doesn't have a ton of MMA based skills and should probably have a record below .500 but he has managed to make it work.

Patterson should be able to sub him quickly. The only way he has any chance is if Patterson strikes with him.

I guess he should.The Israeli guy just pressures and throws wild hooks and now and then some high kick.He was getting beat in that first clip and he was getting outgrappled in the first two rounds by that Rizco guy who made some stupid mistakes.He is pretty hitable,can be taken down and has faced sub competition.That being said he's extremely gritty,seems really durable,reverses positions in grappling,has some trips of his own,some ground and pound...Like a bad gritty all rounder.Sam can be hit and can be taken down.I'm not superconfident.If it was in US and if Sam was a flake maybe I would hit the dog.But Sam himself has shown he can come back from adversity,the fight in London which is a plus for him,the reach advantage,the experience...It's really Sam's fight to lose,I have taken him as a parlay piece and Will probably play his sub line,just don't rate him as high as some other plays due to Ashmoz durability and unknowns about him facing a step up in competition