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UFC 257: McGregor vs. Poirier 2

Khalil Rountree vs. Marcin Prachnio is an interesting one.

The odds favour Khalil to get a 1st round KO. However, it should be clear to anyone who has followed Rountree that he is absolutely terrified of fighting (not passing judgment, just a factual statement). Being violently brutalised by Cutelaba is likely to increase his anxiety. Consequently, if allowed, I would expect Khalil to be very happy to replicate his performance against Eryk Anders–winning the fight with ease, but avoiding the risks involved in hunting a finish.

The question is if Prachnio will allow that fight. Against Sam Alvey his mindset was kill or be killed (and killed he was). But even Alvey was willing to bite down and take one or two to find a finish, something I would not expect from Khalil. Against Ankalaev and Rodriguez, Prachnio looked way less confident, and was hunted down rather than bringing the fight to them. Considering Rountrees "flakiness", overwhelming him with aggression early would probably be a good game plan. But my bet is that being knocked out in three straight will make Prachnio a bit cautious.

Not being sure about Prachnio's cardio I was tempted to play the o1.5 at +150. But if the fight goes anything like I expect it to, it will be slow paced enough where he should be able to last three rounds. My bet is Khalil by Dec @+650 (!).
Good price there, I just don't trust Marcin enough to make it to a decision. His fights seem to end with him either bum rushing his opponents for a quick win or running in and getting finished himself. Grappling shouldn't be a factor and in a pure striking match Rountree should be levels above. I think Rountree will either lands at will from range or get the finish with short elbows. Even if Khalil plays it safe at range I don't think Marcin has the cardio or durability to take the kind of beating Anders did.
 
Good price there, I just don't trust Marcin enough to make it to a decision. His fights seem to end with him either bum rushing his opponents for a quick win or running in and getting finished himself. Grappling shouldn't be a factor and in a pure striking match Rountree should be levels above. I think Rountree will either land at will from range or get the finish with short elbows. Even if Khalil plays it safe at range I don't think Marcin has the cardio or durability to take the kind of beating Anders did.
I agree with all that. And despite being very patient, Khali did drop the much tougher Anders several times... Still, I think Khalil by decision should be more like +400 (and Prachnio by Dec <+1500).
 
Nasrat doesn't weigh in, fight with Arman is off

Arman will fight Fervola if they can agree terms as Arman also missed weight by 3lbs
Damn that's two good fights down the drain. Frevola should be an easy matchup for Arman.
 
Another reason why I don't even bet anymore until the weigh ins now. There are so many changes on the cards now.

I hate to say it, but I think this card is pretty weak. I know they are banking on the McGregor hype for it, but it's not a deep card.
Yeah, I remember the Cerrone - McGregor card was also rather poor.
 
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Khalil is quite a mental midget of different level if he loses this one. They are literally offering this guy on a silver platter so Khalil could get a win. It's push match for sure.

Another reason why I don't even bet anymore until the weigh ins now. There are so many changes on the cards now.

I hate to say it, but I think this card is pretty weak. I know they are banking on the McGregor hype for it, but it's not a deep card.

It will still sell better than any non-Conor card most likely. Also good to get Ribas on these big buyrate cards as the staff is surely looking to give her as much as media visibility as possible.
 
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Did anyone see Dustin on the scale? He looked slightly wobbly, eyes were weird and short breaths.
 
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Ottoman Azatair cut - looks like he got into the safe zone then him and his team cut off their passes to try and sneak people in. Moron.


 
* Ottman Azaitar did not weigh in and was ruled out of his fight fight vs. Matt Frevola
** Arman Tsarukyan missed lightweight limit by 3 pounds; given one additional hour and missed weight by one pound.
*** Khalil Rountree missed light heavyweight limit by 0.5 pounds on first attempt, but made weight on his second attempt.
**** Nasrat Haqparast did not weigh in and was ruled out of his fight fight vs. Tsarukyan due to illness

New lineup.

Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor
Dan Hooker vs. Michael Chandler
Jessica Eye vs. Joanne Calderwood
Andrew Sanchez vs. Makhmud Muradov
Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Ribas

** Arman Tsarukyan vs. Matt Frevola
Brad Tavares vs. Antonio Carlos Junior
Julianna Pena vs. Sara McMann
Khalil Rountree Jr. vs. Marcin Prachnio
Nik Lentz vs. Movsar Evloev
Amir Albazi vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov

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Got to take a little stab at Lentz sub at +1460, hooker sub +1160. Both of them have good guillotines and will be defending takedowns with them

Frevola +479 Worth a small play as well
 
Got to take a little stab at Lentz sub at +1460, hooker sub +1160. Both of them have good guillotines and will be defending takedowns with them

Frevola +479 Worth a small play as well
That might be the only way Lentz wins but I can't see it. Evloev escaped a choke from the 9th circle of hell against Grundy. Movsar seems to have ice water in his veins. I expect him to dominate on the feet and stuff/counter all of Lentz's grappling attempts.
 
I like Amanda Ribas, but I would never pick her to Sub Marina, who has never been subbed in her career. If Amanda couldn't sub Randa Markos, I wouldn't put money on her doing it to Marina. Amanda did sub Paige and Emily Whitmire in the UFC, but they pale in comparison to Marina. I usually bet on all WMMA but betting on Amanda was too expensive for my blood. Best of luck.

Marina has shown almost no ability to avoid getting taken down and Amanda has taken every single one of her UFC opponents down. Over her past two fights Marina has spent over thirteen minutes being controlled. So say Amanda has control of her for 6.5 minutes (the average) of the last two fights, do you seriously believe Amanda is not going to submit her if she has over a full round to work?

Also, Markos got the shit beat out of her on the ground and the fight should have been stopped (and likely was close too), two judges in that fight gave Amanda 2 10-8 rounds, and Markos is a far superior grappler to Marina. Marina is not going to be able to launch any kind of offense from bottom position against a fighter like Amanda.

The knockout for Marina is always there (though we haven't seen one since the contender series), but Amanda does not fight on her opponents terms and where they feel most comfortable and she doesn't care about getting style points for the win. Everyone saw how fast she took Paige down, she didn't even pretend she was interested in striking, and we should not expect any different.

A lot of folks overthink these fights when they usually just go as expected. The line for amanda is very fair and I strongly disagree and think the first round submission line is money.
 
Marina has shown almost no ability to avoid getting taken down and Amanda has taken every single one of her UFC opponents down. Over her past two fights Marina has spent over thirteen minutes being controlled. So say Amanda has control of her for 6.5 minutes (the average) of the last two fights, do you seriously believe Amanda is not going to submit her if she has over a full round to work?

Also, Markos got the shit beat out of her on the ground and the fight should have been stopped (and likely was close too), two judges in that fight gave Amanda 2 10-8 rounds, and Markos is a far superior grappler to Marina. Marina is not going to be able to launch any kind of offense from bottom position against a fighter like Amanda.

The knockout for Marina is always there (though we haven't seen one since the contender series), but Amanda does not fight on her opponents terms and where they feel most comfortable and she doesn't care about getting style points for the win. Everyone saw how fast she took Paige down, she didn't even pretend she was interested in striking, and we should not expect any different.

A lot of folks overthink these fights when they usually just go as expected. The line for amanda is very fair and I strongly disagree and think the first round submission line is money.
I have no doubt Amanda can take her down, I just don't see Marina giving up the submission like Paige or Emily. I do see Amanda winning the fight by decision, but at those odds, I didn't bite. And I'm not trying to jinx your bet, but Amanda also said she wants to stand w/ Marina to show the fans she's not just a ground fighter - we'll see. Best of luck. https://www.bloodyelbow.com/2021/1/...uez-wants-fans-to-remember-her-fight-mma-news
 
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I have no doubt Amanda can take her down, I just don't see Marina giving up the submission like Paige or Emily. I do see Amanda winning the fight by decision, but at those odds, I didn't bite. And I'm not trying to jinx your bet, but Amanda also said she wants to stand w/ Marina to show the fans she's not just a ground fighter - we'll see. Best of luck. https://www.bloodyelbow.com/2021/1/...uez-wants-fans-to-remember-her-fight-mma-news
speaking of takedowns, how are her takedowns? I haven't taped and can only remember other fighters engaging in the clinch which I doubt Marina will do. I only recall a judo toss (?) of PVZ.
 
I have no doubt Amanda can take her down, I just don't see Marina giving up the submission like Paige or Emily. I do see Amanda winning the fight by decision, but at those odds, I didn't bite. And I'm not trying to jinx your bet, but Amanda also said she wants to stand w/ Marina to show the fans she's not just a ground fighter - we'll see. Best of luck. https://www.bloodyelbow.com/2021/1/...uez-wants-fans-to-remember-her-fight-mma-news

You aren't jinxing my bet, i have no money on the bout between Marina and Amanda, the return on investment of the outcome I find extraordinarily likely simply isn't high enough to justify the wager. That does not mean though I am not going to challenge advice in this thread I believe to be misinformed and likely to lose folks money.

What do you mean 'give up the submission', once a fighter like Amanda has top control she is going to inflict ground and pound and hunt the submission, she is an offensive grappler. Paige did not tap because she was giving up, she was in an armbar that she was not getting out of and it was very early in the round; her arm would have been dislocated within 30 seconds.

Amanda wants to stand and bang with Marina in the same way Kamaru Usman wanted to stand and bang with Masvidal (he didn't). She is not going to forecast her game-plan to an interviewer come on now. Her father is apart of her team, you seriously believe he wants his daughter to get hit in the head fifty times, when she can get hit in the head four or five times and win?

Also, she stood with Mackenzie Dern for nearly fifteen minutes, as well as with Markos for half their fight. We have seen plenty. She would be a fool to stand there and trade with a striker who is easily taken down. We know better.
 


Check out my betting preview lads. Two big plays included. On the rest of the card.. I did think of playing marina at +250 but she has been taken down too easily in the past and I can't see her avoiding the ground against Ribas. Arman should deal with Frevola. Those two in a treble with Conor seems a solid treble for fun.
 
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