UFC 257: McGregor vs. Poirier 2

[Wiktoruspro]

Conor-Dustin is dog or pass.
I love parlays but Conor is no parlay material
Its 5 rounds and Conors cardio is suspect.
He gained muscles so it wont be better

 

[XociDe]

Conor is elite. Cardio is his only weakness but he he did go 5 hard rounds with Nate Diaz (at 170), and won. He even won the 3rd against Khabib after being controlled in the 1st and mauled in the 2nd. He was a wreck for that fight as well, physically and mentally. So his cardio isn't THAT bad. He just drops a few levels when he's tired but he can still compete.

I think his mind is right again. From looking at his insta, he is already in great shape and we're still 2 and a half weeks out. He will outclass Dustin for however long his cardio holds up. I think he has 3 good rounds in him at 155. And I don't see how Dustin survives 3 rounds. His style is tailor made for someone like Conor to exploit.

 

[SolarSeiko]

That's the thing though... Dustin is okay with taking damage. Idk about Conor there if Dustin tags him. Yeah Conor hasn't been in a ton of wars but we've seen him get rocked by Khabib and Nate. If they can do that, so can Dustin, and Dustin has survivability.

I think gambling on Dustin's survivability against a guy who finished him early in both their careers and went on to finish even more fighters is a crazy gamble.
Imo, Dustin would need Nate Diaz's durability to beat Conor.

You either need superior boxing or superior grappling skills. Dustin doesn't have either vs Conor.

 

[StewDogg11]

I think gambling on Dustin's survivability against a guy who finished him early in both their careers and went on to finish even more fighters is a crazy gamble.
Imo, Dustin would need Nate Diaz's durability to beat Conor.

You either need superior boxing or superior grappling skills. Dustin doesn't have either vs Conor.

I would absolutely rate his grappling as superior to Conor’s.

 

[rev0lver]

I think gambling on Dustin's survivability against a guy who finished him early in both their careers and went on to finish even more fighters is a crazy gamble.
Imo, Dustin would need Nate Diaz's durability to beat Conor.

You either need superior boxing or superior grappling skills. Dustin doesn't have either vs Conor.

He did finish him first time but in kinda a weird sequence with back of the head shots. I'm not saying Conor can't do it, but Dustin went on to survive long fights against other powerful strikers. Wouldn't call it a crazy gamble. Would be far from the first time a rematch of an early finish gets flipped.

I absolutely do believe Dustin has superior grappling skills. Conor's developed good tdd but we'll see how that plays out if it goes to deep water.

 

[XociDe]

If the fight goes to the 4th and 5th, Dustin will have taken a lot of damage by that point. He will not win the exchanges until Conor seriously gasses. Nate survived and took Conor deep but he had taken so much damage he couldn’t really capitalise.

Also, Dustin is far from a cardio machine. His heart pulls him through when he needs it but he slows down noticeably in the later rounds as well.

The only way I see Dustin having success is if Conor comes out and looks completely washed or if he gameplans hard af and disengages/spams takedowns/wall and stalls until the later rounds and maybe squeaks out a decision.

Like what does Dustin have for Conor, realistically? He’s slow and sloppy in comparison. His wrestling is not a threat. He has good grappling but it’s nowhere near elite.

I’m really trying to see it because I have money on Conor and I’m still confident. I usually get nervous. I think he should be an even bigger favourite.

I think it’s either a quick finish (most likely) or Conor looks levels above until he slows down but wins a decision with Dustin maybe winning the 4th and/or 5th.

If Conor gasses to the point where he turns into a panic wrestler again I hope he retires.

 

[TrueAscension]

That's the thing though... Dustin is okay with taking damage. Idk about Conor there if Dustin tags him. Yeah Conor hasn't been in a ton of wars but we've seen him get rocked by Khabib and Nate. If they can do that, so can Dustin, and Dustin has survivability.

Dustin is way too hittable to win this fight.

 

[Deleted member 316645]

I think McGregor still has an Anderson Silva esque aura to him that a lot of you are being encompassed by.

That, and you're expecting his skills to not have diminished over the past few years.

He became a double champ, made a fuckload of money in the process. Obtained a level of stardom only few have achieved.

Came back to promote his whiskey brand and took a beating by Khabib in the process.

Then came back again to fight the shell of Cerrone.

Poirier has been incredibly active, has been improving, and is still hungry. I think this fight will be a lot closer than people think.

It's dog or pass for me. If Conor gets up to -300, Poirier is the play. Probably the over as well.

 

[SolarSeiko]

I would absolutely rate his grappling as superior to Conor’s.

Can you explain why and use recent fights as examples?

 

[StewDogg11]

Can you explain why and use recent fights as examples?

I guess the most recent example was when he ran a train on Pettis on the ground. I think most would assume that in a pure grappling match Poirier would own Conor.

 

[SolarSeiko]

He did finish him first time but in kinda a weird sequence with back of the head shots. I'm not saying Conor can't do it, but Dustin went on to survive long fights against other powerful strikers. Wouldn't call it a crazy gamble. Would be far from the first time a rematch of an early finish gets flipped.

I absolutely do believe Dustin has superior grappling skills. Conor's developed good tdd but we'll see how that plays out if it goes to deep water.

Why do people insist that Dustin is going to take Conor into "dEeP wAtEr". Since when has Dustin become Khabib and drowned people in superior cardio paired with elite wrestling? This is hilarious. Dustin isn't going to wrestlefuck Conor because he can't. So Dustin is going to what, out strike Conor while taking all the shots at the same time?

 

[SolarSeiko]

I guess the most recent example was when he ran a train on Pettis on the ground. I think most would assume that in a pure grappling match Poirier would own Conor.

You can't possibly believe that using glassman Pettis is a good example. You don't have to agree with me. But at least take the word of a pro.
https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/2021...egor-ufc-257-jiu-jitsu-gilbert-burns-analysis

Dustin has an unlikely chance of wrestle fucking or submitting Conor at this stage in their careers. And this is an unbiased statement from me, I don't even like Conor. I think half his record is padded by beating last minute guys or guys that have glass chins. I also think Dustin has more heart than Conor.

 

[Oblivian]

Why do people insist that Dustin is going to take Conor into "dEeP wAtEr". Since when has Dustin become Khabib and drowned people in superior cardio paired with elite wrestling? This is hilarious. Dustin isn't going to wrestlefuck Conor because he can't. So Dustin is going to what, out strike Conor while taking all the shots at the same time?

I don't feel too strongly on this fight besides thinking it ends ITD at some point, but I think it's important to look at how competitive Nate was able to keep the 2nd fight. I honestly wouldn't even consider that too high of a paced fight and Conor certainly didn't outclass him throughout. Honestly, I think it's pretty likely that if Dustin lasts the first round and beginning of the 2nd, it's very likely Conor will feel like he's in "deep waters" with the pace. My guess is that Conor finishes Poirier early or Poirier finishes middle or late in the fight. Just like many think Dustin is unlikely to survive shots from Conor, I think Conor is equally unlikely to survive Dustin's pace. Gun to my head, I do favor Conor to get it done early but I certainly think Conor's chances diminish greatly with each round.

 

[SolarSeiko]

I don't feel too strongly on this fight besides thinking it ends ITD at some point, but I think it's important to look at how competitive Nate was able to keep the 2nd fight. I honestly wouldn't even consider that too high of a paced fight and Conor certainly didn't outclass him throughout. Honestly, I think it's pretty likely that if Dustin lasts the first round and beginning of the 2nd, it's very likely Conor will feel like he's in "deep waters" with the pace. My guess is that Conor finishes Poirier early or Poirier finishes middle or late in the fight. Just like many think Dustin is unlikely to survive shots from Conor, I think Conor is equally unlikely to survive Dustin's pace. Gun to my head, I do favor Conor to get it done early but I certainly think Conor's chances diminish greatly with each round.

What makes Dustin's pace more intense than Nate's in the 2nd Conor fight? I think Conor isn't dumb enough to not realize he had a cardio issue earlier on in his career. Unless Conor has a yes man team like BJ's old team, I can't see Conor having horrible cardio issues if this goes beyond 2 rounds. Dustin would have to wrestle fuck him or outbox him and not take any significant damage to achieve this deep water tactic on Conor - which seems like a very very unlikely probability.

If Dustin puts himself in this situation again, he will get TKO'd by Conor. time stamped

 

[Oblivian]

What makes Dustin's pace more intense than Nate's in the 2nd Conor fight? I think Conor isn't dumb enough to not realize he had a cardio issue earlier on in his career. Unless Conor has a yes man team like BJ's old team, I can't see Conor having horrible cardio issues if this goes beyond 2 rounds. Dustin would have to wrestle fuck him or outbox him and not take any significant damage to achieve this deep water tactic on Conor - which seems like a very very unlikely probability.

If Dustin puts himself in this situation again, he will get TKO'd by Conor. time stamped

I have my questions if Dustin can last many lands from Conor as well and think Conor is most likely to get a KO early, but it's not hard to see why people think a pace can be put on Conor by Dustin if he does survive. That's basically what Dustin has done to win most of his higher level fights. Hooker was a war, he outpaced Max, Gaethje was a war, etc. Conor's really only had a pace put on him 3 times - Nate 1, Nate 2, and Khabib. I don't think any of those looked promising. He can definitely wilt, and he's fighting someone with a high will and who we've seen can keep volume and pressure late after a very high paced fight.

 

[SolarSeiko]

I have my questions if Dustin can last many lands from Conor as well and think Conor is most likely to get a KO early, but it's not hard to see why people think a pace can be put on Conor by Dustin if he does survive. That's basically what Dustin has done to win most of his higher level fights. Hooker was a war, he outpaced Max, Gaethje was a war, etc. Conor's really only had a pace put on him 3 times - Nate 1, Nate 2, and Khabib. I don't think any of those looked promising. He can definitely wilt, and he's fighting someone with a high will and who we've seen can keep volume and pressure late after a very high paced fight.

Dustin does show a lot of heart in the later rounds where Conor doesn't. Saying he outpaced Max is a stretch, he was just bigger as Max never properly moved up to fight Dustin. It was Max not cutting for 145 and Dustin still being a 155er who has to cut. Outpacing Hooker and Gaethje isn't really impressive imo. The biggest concern is ring rust here ( I don't even consider the Cerrone match a fight ). Conor fights infrequently and hard to say where his motivation is at today. He brings that fuck you KO power and great distance control. That's really it but it's enough to shut off the lights on almost anyone in that division.

 

[sonhow]

I have my questions if Dustin can last many lands from Conor as well and think Conor is most likely to get a KO early, but it's not hard to see why people think a pace can be put on Conor by Dustin if he does survive. That's basically what Dustin has done to win most of his higher level fights. Hooker was a war, he outpaced Max, Gaethje was a war, etc. Conor's really only had a pace put on him 3 times - Nate 1, Nate 2, and Khabib. I don't think any of those looked promising. He can definitely wilt, and he's fighting someone with a high will and who we've seen can keep volume and pressure late after a very high paced fight.

Mendes did put some pace on him but yeah that fight was on two weeks notice and Chad gave up after Conor got up from underneath him at the end of second round.
The only worrying fight from mma side is actually the second Diaz fight as he fought well and technical but ended up gassing at the end of second round. In the first fight he tried to win a dick measuring contest and and that's never wise vs a Diaz bro. Everyone has gassed vs Khabib's so far.

 

[Deleted member 316645]

Oh shit, Chandler is +135 against Hooker in a 3 round fight?

Gonna bet that now. I don't see how Hooker stops Chandler from grinding out a decision.

 

[Sadistics]

Fast twitch guys like Conor will always be front runners, they need to be fresh to land with the timing, power, and precision required of their style. It's also a very taxing style, like you're keeping a spring coiled. Yadong is a good example of this. Poirier does tire but he has some of the best recovery in the sport.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Mendes did put some pace on him but yeah that fight was on two weeks notice and Chad gave up after Conor got up from underneath him at the end of second round.
The only worrying fight from mma side is actually the second Diaz fight as he fought well and technical but ended up gassing at the end of second round. In the first fight he tried to win a dick measuring contest and and that's never wise vs a Diaz bro. Everyone has gassed vs Khabib's so far.

Conor looks like Bane after taking venom, wont help his cardio