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UFC 257: McGregor vs. Poirier 2

longway said:
If Dustin wrestles from the beginning his superior gas tank should give him the win over 5 rounds.

I think that conor is most dangerous in the first 7.5 mins., after that he is very beatable.

If Poirier is smart he will try to ground Conor early, it doesnt matter if he drops the round, as long as he tires Conor out.

Wouldnt be surprised with Poirier by sub in r4, if he survives the first round.
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Agreed. Dustin needs to weather the storm for 2 rounds and the momentum will shift huge. Dustin does get hit though, so let’s see how he does.
 
longway said:
If Dustin wrestles from the beginning his superior gas tank should give him the win over 5 rounds.

I think that conor is most dangerous in the first 7.5 mins., after that he is very beatable.

If Poirier is smart he will try to ground Conor early, it doesnt matter if he drops the round, as long as he tires Conor out.

Wouldnt be surprised with Poirier by sub in r4, if he survives the first round.
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I thought Conor against khabib in the first round looked good till he was taken to the ground, i agree with you i am liking the idea of Poirier taking Conor down to the ground which that might actually happen. Makes you wonder whatever or not Conor has either improved or trained his mistakes from that other fight.
 
GoldenWolf87 said:
I thought Conor against khabib in the first round looked good till he was taken to the ground, i agree with you i am liking the idea of Poirier taking Conor down to the ground which that might actually happen. Makes you wonder whatever or not Conor has either improved or trained his mistakes from that other fight.
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No way poirier takes connor down in the first round.
 
Broe. said:
No way poirier takes connor down in the first round.
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He doesnt have to be successful. Conor's wrestling is not that bad. Just get him moving backward with constant pressure, and definitely attempt tds. Conor doesnt have the same power off the back foot imo.
 
longway said:
He doesnt have to be successful. Conor's wrestling is not that bad. Just get him moving backward with constant pressure, and definitely attempt tds. Conor doesnt have the same power off the back foot imo.
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The best aspect of McGregor's TDD is that he is very tough to grab, because he has good movement and it's scary to enter the pocket against him. Khabib's strategy was to grab a leg at all costs, even if it meant starting the grappling exchange from a terrible position. Poirier won't win the exchange if he attempts that.
 
longway said:
He doesnt have to be successful. Conor's wrestling is not that bad. Just get him moving backward with constant pressure, and definitely attempt tds. Conor doesnt have the same power off the back foot imo.
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Dont see it happening. I also doubt poirier will change his strategy, because he never has. Poirier does go for takedowns occasionally but only when the opportunity presents itself like vs Pettis, but I am pretty sure this will be a standup fight.
 
weedreference said:
The best aspect of McGregor's TDD is that he is very tough to grab, because he has good movement and it's scary to enter the pocket against him. Khabib's strategy was to grab a leg at all costs, even if it meant starting the grappling exchange from a terrible position. Poirier won't win the exchange if he attempts that.
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I doubt Poirier would start out the fight by diving for legs. But he could punch his way into takedowns against the cage. Conor's tdd has definitely improved with his prep for Khabib, so it's not like Dustin just wins ez by getting takedowns. But he'll probably put the option there and it's possible he shows the attempts early to make Conor think about it in the striking war.
 
I like that people are on DP. Want a better number on Conor who will hit DP as often as everyone else does, but harder. Hooker, Gaethje, Max all landed 30+ strikes a round early v DP.

If theyre landing that often, Conor absolutely can and will, only hes a better finisher. Counters better than any other 155er too

DP is aggressive and been in how many wars? Hes getting stomped here imo
 
burge13 said:
I like that people are on DP. Want a better number on Conor who will hit DP as often as everyone else does, but harder. Hooker, Gaethje, Max all landed 30+ strikes a round early v DP.

If theyre landing that often, Conor absolutely can and will, only hes a better finisher. Counters better than any other 155er too

DP is aggressive and been in how many wars? Hes getting stomped here imo
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Its a tough fight for dp, just pointing out what i think is a viable ptv for poirier. Im not betting him though, unless its lb if he shows something like a good gameplan and gets past r1.

If it goes past r2, the fight starts to be more favourable for dp as he has the superior gas tank.
 
Really hard to pick a side on Conor/Poirier.

If this was 2015, I'd cap McGregor @ -500.

His style is tailor made to beat DP, who is incredibly hittable, and Conor's power and precision is on another level.

However, the last time we saw Conor look impressive in a fight was in November 2016, well over four years ago.

He was hungry back then. Is he still training as hard as he was then? More than likely not.

After said win in 2016, he went on to get a huge check from fighting Floyd, and is now set for life.

Since then we've seen him lose to Khabib(no shame in that), but what worries me is his personal life.

His behavior between 2017-2019 was erratic, to say the least. We saw various allegations against him, we saw him hit an elderly man, and numerous other things.

I think it's safe to say 2016 was the pinnacle of his career. He will never look as good as he did then, and most people are betting him as if he's going to look at least 90% as good as he did then, when I simply do not see that being the case.

If he shows up at 60%, could he beat Poirier? Absolutely.

But Poirier has looked great over the past few years, and is hungry to avenge that loss.

Honestly, I hope Conor shows up and looks phenomenal. There are a lot of interesting matchups for him in the LW division right now.

But am I willing to pay -2xx on a fighter with so many question marks surrounding him? No fucking way.

And I haven't brought up his win over Cowboy because I don't really put any stock into him beating a washed Cerrone. Bizarre finish to say the least(rocked by shoulder shrugs?) and just way too short of a fight overall to take anything away from.

There are way better spots on this card. Conor just has an aura that entices people, so the public will always bet on him. I'll watch this fight, and if he looks impressive, possibly bet on him moving forward.
 
Dustin will get hit a lot and probably knocked out. I think Dustin has improved over the years but eh, whatever really, nothing stand out about him other than he quits less these days. Still a punching bag, still slows
 
2020Tracked said:
...whatever really, nothing stand out about him other than he quits less these days. Still a punching bag, still slows
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Did you watch his fight against Holloway? He put on a clinic and blasted Holloway over and over with power shots. Holloway’s granite chin held up, but that was a beatdown. Does a slow punching bag do that to a elite level stand up fighter like Max? Hell no.

I think it’s a lot closer fight than many make it to be. Conor should be the favorite, but he hasn’t done anything meaningful in the last couple of years. He could blow Poirier out of the water early or he could get beaten down in rounds 2/3 and give up his neck/back.

But go ahead, call the top 3 UFC LW fighter a slow punching bag.. You are just making yourself look stupid with those lines.
 
Spath said:
Did you watch his fight against Holloway? He put on a clinic and blasted Holloway over and over with power shots. Holloway’s granite chin held up, but that was a beatdown. Does a slow punching bag do that to a elite level stand up fighter like Max? Hell no.

I think it’s a lot closer fight than many make it to be. Conor should be the favorite, but he hasn’t done anything meaningful in the last couple of years. He could blow Poirier out of the water early or he could get beaten down in rounds 2/3 and give up his neck/back.

But go ahead, call the top 3 UFC LW fighter a slow punching bag.. You are just making yourself look stupid with those lines.
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I thought the Holloway/Dustin fight was a lot closer than people make it out to be
 
Conor has had two fights since beating Eddie. 1 where he was supposed to lose and 1 where he was supposed to win. There isn't much reason to believe he isn't performing at his best level before he shows this in an actual fight.
Cerrone might not be what he once was but he hasn't lost to bad guys either.
 
2020Tracked said:
Dustin will get hit a lot and probably knocked out. I think Dustin has improved over the years but eh, whatever really, nothing stand out about him other than he quits less these days. Still a punching bag, still slows
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Lol when has Dustin ever “quit”? I would even venture to say he’s the opposite of a quitter. He’s a game dog.
 
sonhow said:
Cerrone might not be what he once was but he hasn't lost to bad guys either.
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Cerrone also all but admitted that he expected to lose and didn't want to be there for the Conor fight. He was just there for the entertainment of the fans and the paycheck. I don't think Dustin will have the same attitude.
 
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