UFC 238 Cejudo vs Moraes

[sonhow]

Guys did Dad Cowboy grow a heart?
He used to just quit when you hit him hard enough like Till, Masvidal, Diaz did, even Brown had him mentally checked out for a bit. But in his last 2 fights it looks like he is fighting to his full potential, he just sees everything coming and he actually has a good chin, he is still stiff and hittable but he fights back well.
If he doesnt quit when Tony hits him over and over again, he might win this because he can actually ko people unlike Tony. Like Tony just walks forward with his chin up and eventually you gas out because of the pressure. He did this vs his last 6 opponents, except RDA and vs RDA he a big reach advantage and RDA is not the striker he once was, and yet he still lost rounds.

My worry as someone who wanted to bet Tony is that he's just relying on toughness and speed and Cowboy might just be the wall he cant break and he ends up breaking himself into, a bit like what happened to Max, like there's only so many headkicks you can eat, Tony is a zombie but that never lasts i feel like Dustin or Gaethje would beat him in a 3 round fight, but the thing is i still havent seen Cowboy survive a brutal war like those guys have and i mean mentally because he is durable enough, if he can he should win this because he is gonna hit Tony with the harder more accurate shots.

Cowboy sometimes fights back and wins when hurt and sometimes he doesnt. He did vs Guillard and Eddie. He got stunned so bad vs Jorge that there was no coming back really even if it was a standing stoppage. Ref didnt give him a chance to be a warrior vs bigger Till.

 

[Gugabe]

Munhoz via volume and not going away. Aljamain's great at kicking when you're conceding distance, but is very hittable when you're actually pushing in on him. Rivera had success whenever he deigned to actually pressure, and Munhoz has an incredible attrition game.

 

[piglord]

Aljamain's great at kicking when you're conceding distance, but is very hittable when you're actually pushing in on him.

munhoz can pressure his way into the pocket, but that gives aljo the opportunity to tie up, land knees and wrestle. i think this is going to be a frustrating fight for pedro.

 

[ApplesVild]

It's not measurable but I doubt Sterling's 'heart' and toughness. Very unlikely that he can put Pedro out or finish him, and Pedro will just keep on coming, give him no space and crack him. He's also lost to every step up in competition, with his best win being Jimmy Riviera who has kind of been exposed as nothing special, good but not great. Sterling's game is developing but I just don't see it. Pedro beat Caraway, Sterling got embarrassed against him. He has the better wins over all too.

Pedro gets a finish.

 

[mkess101]

Molest, first of all - Till fucking shatttered his nose to pieces. He is a big ass WW with powerfull straight punches and he has reach and size on old Donald. It's a nightmare combo. Masvidal fought with the absolute perfect gameplan and he had the privilage to fight Donald after that hard fight with The Immortal. So Cerrone's chin was not 100% there, it was very shortly after the Matt Brown fight - not even two months!

The two fights Cerrone had in his return to LW were stylistic gifts IMO. You have short, relative small for the weightclass power wrestler with sloppy hands in Hernandez, and short passive wrestle-boxer with one note striking in Iaquinta.

Is Cerrone going to beat El Cucuy? Donald is just a lot, a lot better striker. There is no comparison there. Ferguson is just amazingly sloppy. His chin is way up there when he punches and he is just asking to get headkicked with his ill advised bobs and weaves. The key to this fight is pressure, tho. Cerrone could be a lot cleaner technically, but if he is forced to fight on his back foot things can get messy + Tony likes to hit the body and we know Cerrone is weak there. I think on paper Cerrone has some key edges in this fight and if he exploit them fully he is gonna win. But still to me this fight is 50/50. That's why I am in a little puzzled with the odds. Tony's incredible winstreak maybe swaying the public and we know Cerrone is losing all his big fights. Maybe this will be his first time, who knows? Maybe he will finally... redeem himself?

Good analysis, but looking for the best comparison to who Cerrone has fought and how they might deal with him, Nate is probably it. I know, I know. Nate has much cleaner boxing than Tony. Tony makes up for that by mixing in knees, elbows, etc. offensively. Nate is a bit better defensively, but he is also an attrition fighter that will eat strikes to land them (maybe not to Tony's level, but close). I'd also look at how Tony fought long vs RDA. More conservative than normal, hitting RDA on the end of his punches and utilizing his reach. Yeah he mixed in some spinning elbows and stuff LOL but he was actually technically very sound in that fight overall. Tony has a 4" reach advantage on Cowboy too.

Maybe Cowboy is completely over the issues he's had where he mentally checks out when he's pressured too much. Nate put him on the back foot and the fight was literally over in the first couple minutes. Donald landed some nice leg kicks but that was it, he just sort of folded. Tony will likely put a lot of forward pressure on him, and when Tony lands his variety of strikes it's not like Nate landing his pitter patter 1-2's. Look at the faces of the last 6 guys Tony has fought...


The other thing to consider is whether Cowboy's super quick turnaround this time is good or bad for him. He did eat some solid strikes early on vs Al. Even those matter for a guy with as much mileage on him as Cowboy has. On the flipside, he should be very sharp for this fight and maybe won't start quite as slowly as he normally does having fought so recently? I think most of us believe this will turn into a dogfight at some point and won't be 15 minutes of technical kickboxing on the outside. And if we do get that dogfight, we've seen one guy be broken in the cage multiple times, and the other we've never seen broken even once. We've seen him thrive on adversity and not only come back and win, but come back and finish almost every guy who's put him in any sort of jeopardy at all.

I cap Tony at least -200 or better. Yes, personal bias maybe as he's my favorite current fighter. BUT, I'm also a huge Cerrone fan. Have been since his fights with Jamie Varner and Bendo in WEC. So it's not like I think he can't win. He's a live dog, this is FAR from a squash match for Tony. But Tony should be favored for sure.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

The biggest problem with Sterling is that he Has no ko power, thats A concern going against a Titan chin house like Pedro. Pedro might win this with non stop pressure

 

[Kyle Stephens]

@mkess101 I don't know what to tell you...
I agree with most of your points. But just can't agree with capping Tony @ -200 (1.50 in euro format). His edges are not that big.

I seriously don't see Tony ever repeating that RDA fight. Since then he never showed the same level of composure and control TBH. And RDA was a good match-up for him. RDA just can't win a fight if his wrestling is shut down completely and he has to win on points by kickboxing in the open area. He has to pressure you to the fences in order to win if it is a pure kickboxing fight. He is too passive, he doesn't have range weapons to outpoint you in the center of the octagon. Tony stayed away from the fences all fight. Mostly by standing his ground and marching forward, in the rare occasions he was actually on or near the fences he threatened with counters and RDA quickly backed away.

Tony can and probably will pressure Donald, but Tony's pressure is really sloppy. Like... for real. The guy gets way off his base the moment he has to throw more than one punch. He is open for all kinds of shit. You just have to be there and have the balls to pull the trigger on some counters. RDA just covers on defence, he is not a counter-puncher at all. Almost the same could be said for Pettis. He throws a bit more than RDA in return, and that was enough to send Tony all over the place.

The guys that are problem for Cerrone generally throw straight punches and have similar or longer reach than him. For some reason he deals with looping punches a lot better. Tony is punching straight in single shots and mostly in the open space, but when he puts combos together they are always a fucking mess. Like he is lately. This kind of shit is not optimal to beat Cerrone. It can work, but is not optimal. I have my concerns about Cerrone's old issue with his guts because Tony likes the bodyshot and the bodykick, but other than that I can't think of any major edge Tony has in this fight.

We've seen one great attrition based fighter who lost lately - Holloway. And Holloway is a lot better striker than Tony. You can win a lot of fights with your chin until someone who can make you pay for your style shows up. That someone in this instant maybe is Cerrone. Still maintain my stance that the fight is close to 50/50, tho.

 

[mkess101]

@mkess101 I don't know what to tell you...
I agree with most of your points. But just can't agree with capping Tony @ -200 (1.50 in euro format). His edges are not that big.

I seriously don't see Tony ever repeating that RDA fight. Since then he never showed the same level of composure and control TBH. And RDA was a good match-up for him. RDA just can't win a fight if his wrestling is shut down completely and he has to win on points by kickboxing in the open area. He has to pressure you to the fences in order to win if it is a pure kickboxing fight. He is too passive, he doesn't have range weapons to outpoint you in the center of the octagon. Tony stayed away from the fences all fight. Mostly by standing his ground and marching forward, in the rare occasions he was actually on or near the fences he threatened with counters and RDA quickly backed away.

Tony can and probably will pressure Donald, but Tony's pressure is really sloppy. Like... for real. The guy gets way off his base the moment he has to throw more than one punch. He is open for all kinds of shit. You just have to be there and have the balls to pull the trigger on some counters. RDA just covers on defence, he is not a counter-puncher at all. Almost the same could be said for Pettis. He throws a bit more than RDA in return, and that was enough to send Tony all over the place.

The guys that are problem for Cerrone generally throw straight punches and have similar or longer reach than him. For some reason he deals with looping punches a lot better. Tony is punching straight in single shots and mostly in the open space, but when he puts combos together they are always a fucking mess. Like he is lately. This kind of shit is not optimal to beat Cerrone. It can work, but is not optimal. I have my concerns about Cerrone's old issue with his guts because Tony likes the bodyshot and the bodykick, but other than that I can't think of any major edge Tony has in this fight.

We've seen one great attrition based fighter who lost lately - Holloway. And Holloway is a lot better striker than Tony. You can win a lot of fights with your chin until someone who can make you pay for your style shows up. That someone in this instant maybe is Cerrone. Still maintain my stance that the fight is close to 50/50, tho.

Some of this I agree with, but saying "since then" for Tony (re: RDA)...it's only 2 fights LOL. Lee and Pettis. Tony was actually very composed with Lee in the standup, but that fight had as much grappling as it did standup so hard to really gauge it. Lee clipped Tony with one okay shot standing and caught Tony off balance and technically knocked him down, but that was it. Tony was never hurt and popped right up and then dropped Lee. The Pettis fight...yeah we all saw it. We know what happened. That's it since RDA though. And RDA really never pursued the TD much vs Tony. A few half hearted attempts but he didn't seem super keen on messing with Tony on the mat. Maybe a mistake by RDA...not sure.

Tony's pressure is sloppy, I agree. But it's also unpredictable and violent. Similar to Max, he doesn't have one shot KO power really. But unlike Max (who yes, has much better and cleaner boxing) Tony's pressure is incredibly violent. Look at how he attacked Pettis in round 2 of that fight. Specifically (you mentioned this) how he digs the brutal hook to the body. And he's throwing shots that (while maybe not instantly KO'ing guys) seriously hurt them. Max can wear guys down (like he did Aldo) but he can't pour the level of damage onto them like Tony can (and usually does).

We did see Max lose, and he is an attrition fighter. But I think a major difference is that Max just didn't have the ability to hurt DP and get his respect in the exchanges. Poirier's boxing is underrated, but you could see early on how he walked through the shots Max did land. Tony is bigger, and the guys he hits may not instantly drop or crumble, but they FEEL the impact of the shots and they are hurt by it. That makes a world of difference when you are forcing an attrition fight.

To me, the most interesting aspect will be round 1. Tony needs to adjust his normal mindset as this is a 3 round fight. Cowboy is a slow starter too, but Tony in 5 rounders generally seems content to not put real pressure on until round 2. That would be a mistake here imo. He needs to be in Cowboy's face from the opening bell. Not totally recklessly obviously, but he needs to show Cowboy it's going to be a fight in a phone booth from the start, not a kickboxing match at distance.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

@mkess101 Tony is violent, but Pettis and, for that matter, Barbosa, tends to back himself onto the fences a bit too easy. Cerrone's ringcraft is better, also he sticks at least a jab out there when pressured, he does not give you the space for nothing.

It's intriguing match-up, that's for sure. We can talk about it at lenght. I stopped betting because I suck at it, so I should not write here, but sometimes I can't help myself, betting threads are my favourite. So that is about what my contribution for the thread is gonna be. Just wanted to share an opinion about this super exciting fire match-up.

 

[ApplesVild]

I think there is a lot of recency bias coming into play with people picking Cowboy. He's looked good his last few fights, but he hasn't really looked different to how he did 3/4 years a go, not a lot has changed about his game. He maybe doesn't wait as much now and throws in take down attempts a little more often but other than than, what's new? Not saying his game is bad, but it just is what it is. Plus he's looking good in wins against lower level competition. Ferg has beat some of the best light weights ever in his past few fights, Cowboy had beat Mike Perry, Hernandez and Al. Al is decent but he doesn't belong in the tip five because he beat Kevin Lee twice.

What does Cowboy offer on the feet that Pettis, Barboza or even Lando don't? And in terms of wrestling and ground game Tony has been in there with and beaten guys who are much better.

I know, MMA math, but it is relavant.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Hey guys, I watched tape on Lee and Montana and I think Montana might win this.
Lee got taken down by Ashlee Smith and her conditioning is suspect.. Montana might grind her out or even submit her.
Whats your opinion guys?

 

[Hellowhosthat]

It's not measurable but I doubt Sterling's 'heart' and toughness. Very unlikely that he can put Pedro out or finish him, and Pedro will just keep on coming, give him no space and crack him. He's also lost to every step up in competition, with his best win being Jimmy Riviera who has kind of been exposed as nothing special, good but not great. Sterling's game is developing but I just don't see it. Pedro beat Caraway, Sterling got embarrassed against him. He has the better wins over all too.

Pedro gets a finish.

I'm not reading anything into the Caraway fights personally, Pedro fought Caraway post lay off, Miesha break up and the death of Robert Follis . I think Aljo fought an entirely different version.

 

[ill800]

Hey guys, I watched tape on Lee and Montana and I think Montana might win this.
Lee got taken down by Ashlee Smith and her conditioning is suspect.. Montana might grind her out or even submit her.
Whats your opinion guys?

Wrestling will probably cancel out here and lee is the better more polished striker

Lee is a better version of de la rosa

 

[Wiktoruspro]

I'm not reading anything into the Caraway fights personally, Pedro fought Caraway post lay off, Miesha break up and the death of Robert Follis . I think Aljo fought an entirely different version.

Not to mention that Misha got banged so good that she got pregnant, that killed Bryan.

Wrestling will probably cancel out here and lee is the better more polished striker

Lee is a better version of de la rosa

How is she a better wrestler than Montana ?

 

[jrleclerc88]

Cowboy sometimes fights back and wins when hurt and sometimes he doesnt. He did vs Guillard and Eddie. He got stunned so bad vs Jorge that there was no coming back really even if it was a standing stoppage. Ref didnt give him a chance to be a warrior vs bigger Till.

you cant just cower in the corner and cover up. he folded in both of those fights

 

[joenewbie]

The best wrestler that Kattar has fought is... Chris Fishgold? Who had noted difficulty consistently taking down and holding David Teymur? Legkicks beat jabs on the outside. Kattar's only got a pocket advantage here, and he's not incredible there.

Agree with most of this but a straight counter (or hook ala Josh Emmett) to Lamas' leg kicks and the fight is over. My biggest loss is betting on Saki vs. Rountree and watching as (overhyped IMO) Saki got TKO off of a low kick.

Just because Kattar didn't check or counter leg kicks against Carneiro doesn't mean he won't this time against Lamas. In that fight I didn't think that Kattar's leg was in as bad of shape as Rogan kept saying.

 

[ApplesVild]

What thing I noticed in Henry vs Pettis was that Duke Rufus was asking for Pettis to throw more kicks. He food in round to right after the bell and lands a clean body kick with no set it, just throws it.

How often have we seen Henry catch a kick when he does catch one how does he work off of it?

How much did Henry himself throw kicks against Mighty Mouse?

Watching tape high, getting deep haha

 

[molest]

Kyle i agree, Tony is wide open for a headkick but i think he can take them, if he cant push Cowboy back he's fucked.
One thing i feel is that Tony doesnt train with anyone, while Cerrone is out there with Joe Schilling and it showed

Some of this I agree with, but saying "since then" for Tony (re: RDA)...it's only 2 fights LOL. Lee and Pettis. Tony was actually very composed with Lee in the standup, but that fight had as much grappling as it did standup so hard to really gauge it. Lee clipped Tony with one okay shot standing and caught Tony off balance and technically knocked him down, but that was it. Tony was never hurt and popped right up and then dropped Lee. The Pettis fight...yeah we all saw it. We know what happened. That's it since RDA though. And RDA really never pursued the TD much vs Tony. A few half hearted attempts but he didn't seem super keen on messing with Tony on the mat. Maybe a mistake by RDA...not sure.

Tony's pressure is sloppy, I agree. But it's also unpredictable and violent. Similar to Max, he doesn't have one shot KO power really. But unlike Max (who yes, has much better and cleaner boxing) Tony's pressure is incredibly violent. Look at how he attacked Pettis in round 2 of that fight. Specifically (you mentioned this) how he digs the brutal hook to the body. And he's throwing shots that (while maybe not instantly KO'ing guys) seriously hurt them. Max can wear guys down (like he did Aldo) but he can't pour the level of damage onto them like Tony can (and usually does).

We did see Max lose, and he is an attrition fighter. But I think a major difference is that Max just didn't have the ability to hurt DP and get his respect in the exchanges. Poirier's boxing is underrated, but you could see early on how he walked through the shots Max did land. Tony is bigger, and the guys he hits may not instantly drop or crumble, but they FEEL the impact of the shots and they are hurt by it. That makes a world of difference when you are forcing an attrition fight.

To me, the most interesting aspect will be round 1. Tony needs to adjust his normal mindset as this is a 3 round fight. Cowboy is a slow starter too, but Tony in 5 rounders generally seems content to not put real pressure on until round 2. That would be a mistake here imo. He needs to be in Cowboy's face from the opening bell. Not totally recklessly obviously, but he needs to show Cowboy it's going to be a fight in a phone booth from the start, not a kickboxing match at distance.

Max took the most savage shots i've seen a guy take and not get stopped and he still found a way to pressure.
But Dustin had a great way to alleviate pressure which was covering up and rolling with the shots, he did this vs Eddie and Justin too, Cowboy response to pressure is to shoot for takedowns or shell up.

But Cowboy is way too experienced to think he's just gonna get walked down to the fence and die a slow death like Edson/Pettis did, he's gonna tag Tony with a headkick at some point. I think the Pettis fight is a bit overrated for Tony like he can't pressure that good, Lando and RDA just pivoted and were never really backed down for much of the fight.
I'm still picking Tony because i feel Cowboy wont be able to keep up with his pace, but Tony is walking a very fine line here, first he needs to pressure a lot (he's not gonna win a slow paced fight) and second he needs to survive Cowboy's shot, not only punches but headkicks and leg kicks.

 

[ApplesVild]

Isn't Tony's win over RDA even more impressive now? Since after that RDA went to Welter Weight and got to a title contender fight... Then lost to only the best guys in the division and beat a young powerful lion in Lee?

Tony beat a prime RDA... Prime RDA fucked everyone up, and Ferguson was dancing around him... Take a look at what RDA did to Cowboy in their fight

 

[ApplesVild]

Do you think we'll get a better line on Ferguson as the week goes on?