UFC 237 PBP/Discussion

[ill800]

I get your problem trying to force stuff, its hard to resist if your down. At least your recognising it though, build slow and you''ll get there its just a learning experience, I know I still regularly screw up I just try and not repeat the mistakes. I'd lower your unit size and just work on getting a consistent ROI and return then invest once you know you can make the money back. I spent a year betting small learning and then this year have been quite aggressive with my betting and unit size.

As for the fight I think its a case of recognising the impact of pressure on cardio, idk what your background is martial arts wise but fighting backwards is really tiring and Andrade was making Rose do that. Then Rose was planting to counter but just letting Andrade get in the pocket to unload. So essentially Rose was going to slowdown and at the same time Andrade strike rate was only going to increase. With regards to say the Joanna fight there was no pressuring there, both girls maintained a pretty consistent range and Joanna didn't really make her work and slow. Rose technique is pretty efficient energywise but going back she wastes a lot. Still though the lowkicks and fight in general were getting to Rose in the 3rd and 4th which Joanna won as she slowed before Roses team psyched her up and she came out better in the 5th. Rose vs Andrade was all about the pressure and whether Rose could deal with it for 25 minutes. As soon as I could see that slipping at the very end of R1 it was very unlikely Rose was getting that momentum back.

My mma bets are fine. I was up comfortably on the night before my live bet blunder

I quit betting everything else besides mma this week. That’s what my problem was.

I made a late play on andrade, and it was far too big

I was actually going to wait until after rd 1 to play andrade. I figured rose would win rd1 but what I didn’t realize was how big the striking gap would be and how much her punches would affect andrade

 

[Soccer Steve]

My mma bets are fine. I was up comfortably on the night before my live bet blunder

I quit betting everything else besides mma this week. That’s what my problem was.

As soon as I ditched soccer and hockey my br went 180.

 

[ill800]

As soon as I ditched soccer and hockey my br went 180.

And I had done this before. I went to strictly mma and went up 150 units in 6 months.

Then baseball season rolled around and I got buried quick. I decided to quit again after I bet the under in the Rockies game this week. It was 36 degrees in Colorado and felt like 30.

The game went over by the third inning and 23 runs ended up being scored. The line for the game was 9.5

And I was done

 

[NorthernLights]

As for when Andrade was starting to win, you can clearly see her taking over in the last 40 seconds of Round 1. Rose already starts to plant her feet and just wing shots letting Andrade in the pocket. Andrade is beating up the legs and body and Roses footwork is falling apart. Andrade should of been like -300 live by Round 2. Even more gutted I didn't slam that +400 now and only went 1u.

I don't care how many novel length posts you can make about the fight but there is no way that you actually believe that. I'm not salty about losing either because I profited from that slam too...but come on!

 

[Jordan3399]

I don't care how many novel length posts you can make about the fight but there is no way that you actually believe that. I'm not salty about losing either because I profited from that slam too...but come on!

Is everyone just going to ignore everything I wrote or what? Rose was making a load of mistakes and Andrade was doing exactly what she needed to do, she absolutely had the momentum in her favour by the end of R1 it just needed time to build. Sorry if the technical side of striking and pressuring during a fight is too much for some people but the ignorance is just silly.

Does everyone betting on these fights actually have that little experience of actually fighting? Do you know how bad is trying to fight on the backfoot, too get punched to the body, low kicked repeatedly etc.

 

[NorthernLights]

Is everyone just going to ignore everything I wrote or what? Rose was making a load of mistakes and Andrade was doing exactly what she needed to do, she absolutely had the momentum in her favour by the end of R1 it just needed time to build. Sorry if the technical side of striking and pressuring during a fight is too much for some people but the ignorance is just silly.

To be fair, the highlighted portion of what I quoted is enough to make me disregard everything else you've said about the fight...but you don't have to lash out at everyone like a cornered animal because your line of reasoning is being questioned.

 

[Jordan3399]

To be fair, the highlighted portion of what I quoted is enough to make me disregard everything else you've said about the fight...but you don't have to lash out at everyone like a cornered animal because your line of reasoning is being questioned.

I was being polite and reasonable with people and tried to actually explain my line of reasoning but if people are just going to ignore that, avoid any technical discussion and talk shit then frankly I do find they're understanding totally questionable.

I can provide more examples of how Rose was making mistakes and Andrade was being smart but evidently all the pissed Rose bettors just want to embrace and group think mentality stick to the idea that Andrade winning was a fluke.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

I was being polite and reasonable with people and tried to actually explain my line of reasoning but if people are just going to ignore that, avoid any technical discussion and talk shit then frankly I do find they're understanding totally questionable.

I can provide more examples of how Rose was making mistakes and Andrade was being smart but evidently all the pissed Rose bettors just want to embrace and group think mentality stick to the idea that Andrade winning was a fluke.

Lying Little Jordie getting away with previous falsehoods about bets without being questioned, the natural high of winning a bet he thought would certainly lose yesterday, plus the lubrication of the alcohol/drugs he is always bragging about makes him think he can now get lie about fights we all watched. And as usual, when people call him out, he doubles and triples down.

Never go full clown mode, Jordie.

 

[Jordan3399]

Lying Little Jordie getting away with previous falsehoods about bets without being questioned, the natural high of winning a bet he thought would certainly lose yesterday, plus the lubrication of the alcohol/drugs he is always bragging about makes him think he can now get lie about fights we all watched. And as usual, when people call him out, he doubles and triples down.

Never go full clown mode, Jordie.

There's a reason all you guys were hitting the losing fighter buying into whatever the commentators were shouting while the sharp guys were hitting the winning fighter at great odds.

Rose was letting her leg get chewed up, didn't have the power to easily hurt Andrade to stop the pressure, was letting Andrade get into the pocket to unload on her, was going submission over position and going for power move subs that are very hard to get on much stronger opponents like Andrade when she should of been trying to take the back.

Andrade was ripping the body, relentlessly pressuring, easily got up off her back and showed Rose couldn't use TDs to relieve pressure, not headhunting and doing everything past opponents had done to beat Rose.

Hate to sound like a dick but if you want to criticise me when you missed all those factors and lost money then you seriously need to have a serious chat with yourself. I was half asleep at 6am and still saw it easily.

 

[Soccer Steve]

There's a reason all you guys were hitting the losing fighter buying into whatever the commentators were shouting while the sharp guys were hitting the winning fighter at great odds.

Rose was letting her leg get chewed up, didn't have the power to easily hurt Andrade to stop the pressure, was letting Andrade get into the pocket to unload on her, was going submission over position and going for power move subs that are very hard to get on much stronger opponents like Andrade when she should of been trying to take the back.

Andrade was ripping the body, relentlessly pressuring, easily got up off her back and showed Rose couldn't use TDs to relieve pressure, not headhunting and doing everything past opponents had done to beat Rose.

Hate to sound like a dick but if you want to criticise me when you missed all those factors and lost money then you seriously need to have a serious chat with yourself. I was half asleep at 6am and still saw it easily.

There was a moment in Round 2 when rose spaghetti’d and sucked in a deep breath.
I won’t die on the hill that JA takes over and ultimately wins somewhere in 3-4-5 but it sure seemed to me like she had a damn good chance of doing so. And then 4:1.

 

[NorthernLights]

I was being polite and reasonable with people and tried to actually explain my line of reasoning but if people are just going to ignore that, avoid any technical discussion and talk shit then frankly I do find they're understanding totally questionable.

I can provide more examples of how Rose was making mistakes and Andrade was being smart but evidently all the pissed Rose bettors just want to embrace and group think mentality stick to the idea that Andrade winning was a fluke.

Like I said I didn't bet on Rose, I was on Andrade. Andrade MIGHT have taken over and outworked Rose but we'll never know and the way the fight ended was low percentage. It's the fact that you act like it was a sure thing that annoys me given how the fight actually played out while it lasted. You're seeing what you want to see because you'd rather feel clever than lucky IMO. You're clearly not going to change your mind and neither am I so no use going on about it. Congratulations on the livebet!

 

[Omni1]

From the start of the second round if thats a better way of putting it. I expected Rose to do well early most top fighters do vs her. Andrade lost R1 to Gadelha and Tecia. Thats a pattern.

But as soon as the second round started Andrade was coming forward and Rose was having to back up a lot, getting hit to the body and legs (I was concerned Andrade would just head hunt) and her overall footwork and plan was coming apart. Thats an incredibly tiring style of fight for her and the kind that will gas you if you don't have great cardio, which she doesn't.

Honestly just annoyed I didn't slam Andrade harder after R1 but was on a slight time delay and the slam cut me off. I'll rewatch but pretty early in the second round I was very confident in Andrade winning.

My comment was about live betting in between rounds.