UFC 223 - Ferguson vs. Nurmagomedov

[ill800]

5D lines opened with Khabib supposedly as a -505 favorite vs +365 on Max. By the time I looked minutes later Khabib was at -400. Who the hell was betting Max in this situation on a few days notice, up in weight against a bigger man, with the worst stylistic matchup possible and coming off an ankle injury where he wasn't supposed to return until the summer? Holloway hasn't even left Hawaii yet for crying out loud! I kept maximum betting what they would allow me and as it stands I have a total of $1750 on Khabib now between -350, -365, -380 and -400. If I get burnt on this so be it, but I give Max very little hope in this one despite being on Tony originally.

I mean, I put 35 bucks on max. Why not?

 

[null]

Khabib down to -350 again. I added another $250. Now an even 2 G's on Khabib between -350 and -400.

 

[zeckdo]

Is anybody else still in belief this is fake?

3 of the most unlikely things imaginable would have to take place for this to happen.

1. Tony Ferguson, after 12 weeks of hard training, tears his entire mcl so bad, doing an interview, he has to pull out of the biggest fight of his life.

2. Max Holloway, reigning champ, on a 10 fight win streak, who wasn't training as of 3/20, and pulled out of a fight on 2/3 with an ankle injury, takes the hardest fight on the roster against Khabib, for an interim title.

3. Them to hear about it friday when he hurt his knee, worked on the deal all day saturday and the first half of today, and then conveniently announce it on april fools day.

 

[turbozed]

It really sounds like you made up your mind about betting on JJ prior to watching tape. I don't think your analysis is very objective

What are you even talking about? I gave you specific technical things to look for in the first matchup which supports my opinion.

Full disclosure, I bet on Rose and Rose KO the first fight and cashed. I'm not a big fan of Joanna. There's no reason for me to come in *wanting* to bet Joanna.

Why don't you actually respond to the content of people's posts instead of just dismissing it as biased? The latter helps nobody.

 

[iGnP]

Is anybody else still in belief this is fake?

3 of the most unlikely things imaginable would have to take place for this to happen.

1. Tony Ferguson, after 12 weeks of hard training, tears his entire mcl so bad, doing an interview, he has to pull out of the biggest fight of his life.

2. Max Holloway, reigning champ, on a 10 fight win streak, who wasn't training as of 3/20, and pulled out of a fight on 2/3 with an ankle injury, takes the hardest fight on the roster against Khabib, for an interim title.

3. Them to hear about it friday when he hurt his knee, worked on the deal all day saturday and the first half of today, and then conveniently announce it on april fools day.

Agreed but if books have lines, i believe it. vegas knows all

 

[zeckdo]

Agreed but if books have lines, i believe it. vegas knows all

yeah reality set in when dimes voided my bets. rip +2050 round 4 Ferg odds

 

[mkess101]

Agreed but if books have lines, i believe it. vegas knows all

Not only that but voided all the Tony/Khabib plays and credited accounts. If it's a hoax, the books weren't notified at all and will lose their minds about the action they now don't have. I mean, some of it would come back of course, but not all of it or even close imo.

 

[Orion]

So Tony basically slips on a banana peel in the studio and is dancing on Friday?



and then he's just in a great happy easter mood yesterday?



and then Holloway is looking bigger than heavyweight DC 10 days ago and can make 155 now (plus hes hurt)?



meanwhile MJ is tweeting



and a guy claiming to be Khabib's friend is saying its bs

 

[iGnP]

What are you even talking about? I gave you specific technical things to look for in the first matchup which supports my opinion.

Full disclosure, I bet on Rose and Rose KO the first fight and cashed. I'm not a big fan of Joanna. There's no reason for me to come in *wanting* to bet Joanna.

Why don't you actually respond to the content of people's posts instead of just dismissing it as biased? The latter helps nobody.

You made terrible arguments. You couldn't make any reasoning as to why JJ didnt look right and you just kinda assumed it would correct itself out in the rematch (for the record, she looked fine up until she got rocked- then she looked slow and tentative). You dismissed JJ's seemingly less durable chin by making the comment that its "Not a weightclass where betting on chins seems like a tried and true strategy" when we have concrete evidence that Rose CAN hurt JJ and probably will do the same thing if she's able to land flush, as she did multiple times in the first fight. You dont even seem to entertain the idea that maybe, just maybe, the woman who has beaten JJ twice before in the past, who happens to train with Rose, maybe provided some great insight into game planning and executing against JJ. Your whole argument revolves around JJ's reputation and the fallacy that because she was dominant prior to the Rose fight, she will be dominant again in the rematch when there's MORE reason to believe Rose can hurt her again

 

[iGnP]

Not only that but voided all the Tony/Khabib plays and credited accounts. If it's a hoax, the books weren't notified at all and will lose their minds about the action they now don't have. I mean, some of it would come back of course, but not all of it or even close imo.

if it turns out to be a hoax... well played, UFC. well played

 

[mkess101]

So Tony basically slips on a banana peel in the studio and is dancing on Friday?



and then he's just in a great happy easter mood yesterday?



and then Holloway is looking bigger than heavyweight DC 10 days ago and can make 155 now (plus hes hurt)?



meanwhile MJ is tweeting



and a guy claiming to be Khabib's friend is saying its bs

WTF?

Now you have me wondering...at least a little.

I'll actually gain a lot of respect for the UFC's marketing in a way if they have pulled this off.

I still think it's legit, but I'm less sure after you posting this LOL...

 

[conmemay]

I say its april fool joke but really suck for you guys with all ur bets canceled, esp the ones getting great odds like tony r4 , r5 etc..

 

[MidgardSerpent]

Wow, I´d never considered April fool´s day could actually affect bets before all these shenigans....

 

[conmemay]

Still hope its a joke. I wanna see tony-khabib. Khabib beating holloway on short notice coming off injury just doesnt hold much weight.

 

[ill800]

Is holloway healthier than he’s been leading on? Has ufc had this on the back burner the whole time? Has max been training for this fight?

 

[Barkus]

Is anybody else still in belief this is fake?

3 of the most unlikely things imaginable would have to take place for this to happen.

1. Tony Ferguson, after 12 weeks of hard training, tears his entire mcl so bad, doing an interview, he has to pull out of the biggest fight of his life.

2. Max Holloway, reigning champ, on a 10 fight win streak, who wasn't training as of 3/20, and pulled out of a fight on 2/3 with an ankle injury, takes the hardest fight on the roster against Khabib, for an interim title.

3. Them to hear about it friday when he hurt his knee, worked on the deal all day saturday and the first half of today, and then conveniently announce it on april fools day.

I'd set the line at
Legit news -1200
Fake news +800

 

[turbozed]

You made terrible arguments. You couldn't make any reasoning as to why JJ didnt look right and you just kinda assumed it would correct itself out in the rematch (for the record, she looked fine up until she got rocked- then she looked slow and tentative). You dismissed JJ's seemingly less durable chin by making the comment that its "Not a weightclass where betting on chins seems like a tried and true strategy" when we have concrete evidence that Rose CAN hurt JJ and probably will do the same thing if she's able to land flush, as she did multiple times in the first fight. You dont even seem to entertain the idea that maybe, just maybe, the woman who has beaten JJ twice before in the past, who happens to train with Rose, maybe provided some great insight into game planning and executing against JJ. Your whole argument revolves around JJ's reputation and the fallacy that because she was dominant prior to the Rose fight, she will be dominant again in the rematch when there's MORE reason to believe Rose can hurt her again

How would anyone begin to know "why JJ didn't look right"? I pointed out what she did differently in the Rose fight on a technical level than she has done in literally all of her other fights. 2 minutes worth of action vs 2 hours of fight time. You want to counter that with an actual refutation? No? Didn't think so.

I didn't dismiss JJ's chin at all either. I said that she maybe chinny. You want to lie about what I wrote more? The point still stands that strawweight isn't a weight class to rely on knockouts as a fight winner. So Rose KO'd JJ. That's obvious. Can she do it again? Absolutely But do you really think that because it happened once, that it's now a foregone conclusion it happens again, or is now the likely scenario? MMA results are at least in part a toss at a dartboard of possible outcomes. KOs at strawweight aren't a likely outcome based on the numbers, especially factoring in two skilled fighters at championship level. It's not even arguable.

My whole argument doesn't revolve around JJ's reputation at all. Please point out the part where I said that. You can't, because you're making shit up. You would know she's a consistent performer by actually watching her fights. To dismiss the hours of fight footage we have of her because of 2 minutes of her last performance is silly. And to accuse people unwilling of that to buy into some JJ dominance narrative is childish. I already told you I cashed on Rose in the first fight. Please tell me with your mindreader powers what is motivating me to have any bias towards JJ?

Like I said, you are not contributing anything at all to this discussion except for being hyperbolic and accusing other posters of bias. This doesn't help anyone. Not telling anyone what to look for, what might be different, etc. Your argument is 'Rose beat JJ, we have proof. Done deal.' It's juvenile and useless commentary.

 

[turbozed]

I'd set the line at
Legit news -1200
Fake news +800

Right about now, I'd take the -1200. Maybe I'm not being imaginative enough but I can't even think of one person with any stake in this fight that would even consider faking this. It would take the coordinated effort of the UFC, the fighters, Dana, the media to troll us and the only people with such dedication to trolling are autistic 4chan users.

 

[Shoulder]

This is the worst and I hate everything.

 

[conscience]

This is #1 bullshit. I kinda still hope.