UFC 214 - Jones vs Cormier II - Anaheim

[rev0lver]

tfw condit doesn't fold

I'm saying some fighters fail in higher profile fights. Cowboy is one of them too. But Lawler isn't some unstoppable force. His time has been coming and it's come again.

 

[CR0W]

tfw condit doesn't fold

I'm saying some fighters fail in higher profile fights. Cowboy is one of them too. But Lawler isn't some unstoppable force. His time has been coming and it's come again.

Losing is different than folding, please tell me which of them loses were a result of folding?

 

[mkess101]

tfw condit doesn't fold

I'm saying some fighters fail in higher profile fights. Cowboy is one of them too. But Lawler isn't some unstoppable force. His time has been coming and it's come again.

Sorry I'm old, what is "tfw". "The fuck with"?

Anyway, how is what you posted relevant to whether Condit folds or not?

Maia just outgrappled him like he does everyone and choked him out. That's not folding, that's getting choked out by the best grappler in MMA.

The Lawler fight was an amazing war that Condit very likely should have won.

The Woodley fight was a fluke injury.

Hendricks sort of layed on Condit and if the fight was based on actual damage, Condit won easily.

GSP is the best WW of all time and Condit lost a relatively close decision where he was the only one who did any damage.

So yeah, just posting a snapshot of his recent record is completely irrelevant. None of this constitutes what really anyone who follows fighting would consider "folding". Losing a fight doesn't=folding, you get that right?

 

[rev0lver]

Sorry I'm old, what is "tfw". "The fuck with"?

Anyway, how is what you posted relevant to whether Condit folds or not?

Maia just outgrappled him like he does everyone and choked him out. That's not folding, that's getting choked out by the best grappler in MMA.

The Lawler fight was an amazing war that Condit very likely should have won.

The Woodley fight was a fluke injury.

Hendricks sort of layed on Condit and if the fight was based on actual damage, Condit won easily.

GSP is the best WW of all time and Condit lost a relatively close decision where he was the only one who did any damage.

So yeah, just posting a snapshot of his recent record is completely irrelevant. None of this constitutes what really anyone who follows fighting would consider "folding". Losing a fight doesn't=folding, you get that right?

And every one of you kept having enough faith in Condit to put money on him still lost

Cerrone folds high profile fights, Condit loses them, it's the same outcome in the money. I just feel confident about this one.

 

[mkess101]

And every one of you kept having enough faith in Condit to put money on him still lost

Cerrone folds high profile fights, Condit loses them, it's the same outcome in the money. I just feel confident about this one.

Again, why are you using the term "fold"? Just say they don't win high profile fights. Folding, in the view of essentially everyone who follows combat sports, doesn't mean what you're claiming it does.

By your rationale, because Derek Cleary and Chris Lee probably scored the fight incorrectly in Condit vs Lawler that means Condit "folded"? Nice logic. MMA judging has wrong decisions all the time. Losing a bet where you probably picked the right guy but one judge making the wrong call ruins is isn't bad capping on a fight that had a basically even line. It just means you got a bit unlucky.

 

[PuertoRican]

Wtf at the Jones blue belt scene in embedded... Oooook...

You jelly?

 

[ill800]

I would be a little uneasy about laying a serious bet on lawler. That was a brutal knockout and he has been in some real wars over the years. His ability to take damage is what gave him his edge.

tough fight to call honestly

Robbie did the right thing by taking the year off. Cowboy might not be the best comeback fight for him. I don't think he needs to be thrown into war Robbie mode in his first fight back

 

[ill800]

Very hard for me to bet Cormier unless he's a big dog. He's old. He's having trouble cutting weight. Jones has a substantial reach advantage and very good wrestling/grappling

If he loses to bones does he retire? I'm sure it's on his mind.

His strategy in this fight should be much like the rumble fight. Avoid big exchanges. Grapple heavy and look for the takedown. Make jones carry his weight. Control jones. Make him gas. Break him

Easier said than done.

Bones has question marks as well. How is his cardio? Ring rust. Was he a cheater?

I expect jones to have improved jiu jitsu. The guy is a freak and seems to really pick up things quickly. He's creative.

If I had to pick right now I'd say bones submission. I'm feeling the +500 line. Definitely not going to lay -300 sauce on him, which is probably where he's going to end up

 

[MT6ix]

There's USADA questions, ring rust, Jones looking lackluster vs OSP. Enough questions to not pay -240 on Jones. Don't get me wrong I still favor him but odds are off. -160 like the first time seems right given the questions surrounding Jones.

This time around, the juice is pretty steep and there are a lot of uncertainties I definitely agree.

Jon Jones is a near complete fighter with his striking, ji jitsu, wrestling but his one weakness is his boxing. Like many Muay Thai fighters he has fell in love with his kicks whether it be a swing or push kick, he has never really developed his boxing game. He throws some jabs but rarely strings together any combinations.

The guys that give him trouble are guys that can defend the takedown and box with him. Hence why Gustaffson gave him so much trouble and OSP in brief spurts with their hands. Cormier in the first fight was winning the boxing exchanges but Jones would then tie Cormier up in the clinch or take him down from what I remember. They look a weight class apart and Cormier is at a 13 inch reach disadvantage which is huge. If Cormier had Gustafson's or OSP's size and reach with his skill set and heart, he beats Jones in that first fight. He is at a huge physical disadvantage and that's the difference. I think Gustaffson is the only guy that has a chance to beat him in that division because of his reach and skill set.

 

[ill800]

I'm going to be looking hard at oezdemir this week. I think he may be a live dog vs manuwa

I also like evingers sub line, a lot. She's a tough chick and she knows what she needs to do against cyborg.

If she gets to +1000 I'll absolutely throw a ten at her ml

 

[mkess101]

This time around, the juice is pretty steep and there are a lot of uncertainties I definitely agree.

Jon Jones is a near complete fighter with his striking, ji jitsu, wrestling but his one weakness is his boxing. Like many Muay Thai fighters he has fell in love with his kicks whether it be a swing or push kick, he has never really developed his boxing game. He throws some jabs but rarely strings together any combinations.

The guys that give him trouble are guys that can defend the takedown and box with him. Hence why Gustaffson gave him so much trouble and OSP in brief spurts with their hands. Cormier in the first fight was winning the boxing exchanges but Jones would then tie Cormier up in the clinch or take him down from what I remember. They look a weight class apart and Cormier is at a 13 inch reach disadvantage which is huge. If Cormier had Gustafson's or OSP's size and reach with his skill set and heart, he beats Jones in that first fight. He is at a huge physical disadvantage and that's the difference. I think Gustaffson is the only guy that has a chance to beat him in that division because of his reach and skill set.

The Jones that demolished Shogun and choked Machida out and dropped him like a sack of bricks is the best MMA fighter I've ever seen. Current Mighty Mouse is the only one close.

I just don't think that Jones exists anymore. I don't know the reasons but I'm sure it's a combination of things. He still may well have enough to beat DC and reign over the division. But unless he turns back the clock a few years, the dynamic juggernaut is not what he is.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

So I get that AJ fought a weird fight with DC in the rematch, but how was that a "bad performance" by DC? He basically dominated the whole fight. Yes, AJ's "strategy" was head scratching, but that doesn't mean DC's performance was bad. It just means AJ made it easy on him. And he took full advantage by wrecking AJ. You can't extrapolate from that fight that DC is on some sort of major decline.

He did look sloppy and unmotivated vs Silva but that fight was a giant letdown for him. Probably more than OSP was for Jones (or at least as much). DC has been all about redeeming his lone loss, then last minute Jones is out and DC gets a fight against a fading legend who's a natural MW.

I agree with you guys playing Jones -5.5 over his ML. Such a big price difference, it just makes WAY more sense than paying the juice on his ML. If he wins, most likely it looks a lot like the first time where he does it fairly convincingly.

cormier landede four times as many strikes as rumble while throwing three times as many stand landing at a considereably higher connect percentage on his way to a submission win.

the same rumble that was coming off three consecutive ko stoppages over ranked competition, two being top ten.

i have no idea how that is unimpressive

Cool stats, but I don't remember the fight like that. ]I have not rewatched the fight, but I remember saying "Why the fuck does Rumble keep grappling with him?" and like I said I have not rewatched it, but I thought I gave R1 to Rumble. I thought Rumble fought an absolutely horrible game plan in that fight. I definitely did not come away from that fight impressed with DC.

 

[Barkus]

Wtf at the Jones blue belt scene in embedded... Oooook...

Last time out we had power lifter Jones, now we have blue belt BJJ Jones. I'm assuming his prior BJJ training was no gi which doesn't follow a belt structure so he must have started training gi only recently. I personally think his time would be better spent training no gi exclusively.

 

[Captain Crunch28]

This card is crazy. I literally have no strong leans except for the highly juiced cyborg

 

[Barkus]

Cool stats, but I don't remember the fight like that. ]I have not rewatched the fight, but I remember saying "Why the fuck does Rumble keep grappling with him?" and like I said I have not rewatched it, but I thought I gave R1 to Rumble. I thought Rumble fought an absolutely horrible game plan in that fight. I definitely did not come away from that fight impressed with DC.

It's hard to take away too much from that fight, other than to never trust Rumble with your money. DC looked good, but we didn't get to truly see him impose his game on Rumble because Rumble just gave it to him. Also a big concern for me is his weight cut drama and DC saying backstage it's his last fight at 205. He'll be in trouble vs Jones if he goes into the fight depleted from cutting weight.

 

[cagebrain]

Not even that high risk really. Jones, Woodley, Cyborg and Jimmy are 99% chance going to win.

lol 99%

 

[quincy k]

Cool stats, but I don't remember the fight like that. ]I have not rewatched the fight, but I remember saying "Why the fuck does Rumble keep grappling with him?" and like I said I have not rewatched it, but I thought I gave R1 to Rumble. I thought Rumble fought an absolutely horrible game plan in that fight. I definitely did not come away from that fight impressed with DC.

cormier just convincingly beat a guy who had stopped his last three opponents, two being top ten, and before that kod the guy that put jon jones in the hospital

 

[NinjaCat456]

Sorry I'm old, what is "tfw". "The fuck with"?

Google says.. "TFW" is an internet slang acronym that stands for "that feel when."

Anyway any thoughts on Lamas/Knight? Got a pretty strong lean on this one and considering a 5 unit play while the odds are still close to pick 'em. Interested to hear some unbiased opinions on it.

 

[mkess101]

Cool stats, but I don't remember the fight like that. ]I have not rewatched the fight, but I remember saying "Why the fuck does Rumble keep grappling with him?" and like I said I have not rewatched it, but I thought I gave R1 to Rumble. I thought Rumble fought an absolutely horrible game plan in that fight. I definitely did not come away from that fight impressed with DC.

Rumble wouldn't let his hands go for whatever reason. He didn't win rd 1 from what I remember though. I guess it's in the eye of the beholder. As was said, I can see not being overly impressed with DC that fight just based on how bizarre Rumble's performance was. But you can't say it was a bad performance for DC either given that he dominated and finished Rumble in rd 2.

 

[mkess101]

Google says.. "TFW" is an internet slang acronym that stands for "that feel when."

Anyway any thoughts on Lamas/Knight? Got a pretty strong lean on this one and considering a 5 unit play while the odds are still close to pick 'em. Interested to hear some unbiased opinions on it.

Knight is an animal, and has the EXACT attitude you want from a guy in terms of making fights entertaining and trying to finish. But Lamas is a big step up for him. I am leaning Knight here, but I won't be playing it big. This fight has a number of ways it could go, and I'm actually surprised so many people seem to have relatively strong leans. I don't think the odds are far off here from where I cap it. I'll keep an eye out for movement, and obviously look for good live opportunities. Barring a big line move or a prop that gets hammered one way or the other, I'll be small pre fight on this one.