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UFC 214 - Jones vs Cormier II - Anaheim

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pulling the trigger on bones -5.5 -105.

i think it's superior to his ML of -250, and i was frankly considering that. but $1.45 extra on the dollar just for the 5.5 points? not worth it, imo.
 
t6p said:
Just hit Maia sub +320 for a unit. By far his most likely path to victory IMO.
Click to expand...

maia NSC +194
vs
maia sub +320

i don't dislike your bet AT ALL. in fact i was JUST about to bet it and say "good catch, t6p!"

but i think i like NSC better. i think there's a decent chance it goes 5 with twood fighting cautiously, and if maia doesnt sub him, i don't think he wins... get your money back on twood dec...
 
Wiktoruspro said:
Is this whole Calvin Kattar good? Odds are good and he has a good record
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i'm no authority on him, but i think he might be a bit slow. from the very little i've seen (i.e. highlights of his CES win vs foster) speed edge to fili might be significant here.

fili coming off of the best performance of his career, imo, too (dias)
 
EzFlyer said:
i'm no authority on him, but i think he might be a bit slow. from the very little i've seen (i.e. highlights of his CES win vs foster) speed edge to fili might be significant here.

fili coming off of the best performance of his career, imo, too (dias)
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Watched some of his older fights, before he took 3 years off to be a promoter, and he went tooth and nail with some mediocre competetion. Fili should really be better everywhere. If he doesn't come out with a terrible gameplan/fight IQ ala Bermeduz he should win handily imo.
 
EzFlyer said:
pulling the trigger on bones -5.5 -105.

i think it's superior to his ML of -250, and i was frankly considering that. but $1.45 extra on the dollar just for the 5.5 points? not worth it, imo.
Click to expand...

I like that line, thanks for the heads up.

You moved the line though so had to take it at -110. Still really like it tho.
 
EzFlyer said:
maia NSC +194
vs
maia sub +320

i don't dislike your bet AT ALL. in fact i was JUST about to bet it and say "good catch, t6p!"

but i think i like NSC better. i think there's a decent chance it goes 5 with twood fighting cautiously, and if maia doesnt sub him, i don't think he wins... get your money back on twood dec...
Click to expand...

Right there with you man. I was considering NSC too, but the price difference was big enough that I decided to get greedy. Plus, we've seen how crazy the movement can be on those NSC lines. I'd be willing to risk another 0.5u-1u on Maia NSC if it jumps up even higher.
 
I think I will pass on Barao, watched their last fights and Sterling impressed me more.. damn. Is anyone betting Barao?
 
Cormier +230 not tempting anyone, what with Bones coming of yet another layoff and with all his personal problems?
 
EzFlyer said:
maia NSC +194
vs
maia sub +320

i don't dislike your bet AT ALL. in fact i was JUST about to bet it and say "good catch, t6p!"

but i think i like NSC better. i think there's a decent chance it goes 5 with twood fighting cautiously, and if maia doesnt sub him, i don't think he wins... get your money back on twood dec...
Click to expand...

What do you think is a "decent chance"?

Fight goes distance is +260. I don't like it myself, but depending on how likely you think Maia sub is you could take some of your Maia NSC $ and play fight goes distance. Then you win instead of push on Woodley Dec and Maia dec and get paid better. Just a thought...
 
mkess101 said:
What do you think is a "decent chance"?

Fight goes distance is +260. I don't like it myself, but depending on how likely you think Maia sub is you could take some of your Maia NSC $ and play fight goes distance. Then you win instead of push on Woodley Dec and Maia dec and get paid better. Just a thought...
Click to expand...

presently the only bet i have on the fight is a whopping 0.2u on twood dec +505 ;)

otherwise i'm just talkin it out, deciding where the value is.. not sure, yet. (it might very well be on goes 5)
 
JimGunn said:
Cormier +230 not tempting anyone, what with Bones coming of yet another layoff and with all his personal problems?
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But D.C. getting older, slower and the big question is still how he will beat Jones?

I got Jones [email protected], but I just have a feeling Jones will get a late stoppage and retire D.C.
 
Wiktoruspro said:
I think I will pass on Barao, watched their last fights and Sterling impressed me more.. damn. Is anyone betting Barao?
Click to expand...

I am on Barao as a dog. Sterling won't be able to wrestle and doesn't trust his hands, so he just spams kicks from the outside. Barao should be landing the harder shots if he has anything left in the tank. He looked decent against Stephens and Nover imo and both have as good of standup as Aljo. Fight being at 140 is a huge plus for him as well. I don't rate Sterling as high as most though.
 
Seems like a pretty good card for dogs if you ask me.
Not very scientific analysis but I have to pick Ortega and Knight based on the Jordan Breen hard man theory. These dudes just seem rougher than their opponents in a way that leads to getting their hands raised.
Also like cowboy against lawler. When Robbie fought condit, condit was able to stick him in place with kicks at range. I like to cowboy to keep his chin protected long enough to establish a pattern of controlling long range with kicks and stepping right through boxing range to win the close range with knees.
 
my goodness. I knew barao's tdd was exceptional, but the ufc officially has him at 97%. that's pretty incredible. that's over 14 fights in the ufc and wec (2 in wec if they count towards it)

largely against top flight competition and some even up a weight class...
 
Bones sub might be worth a look too at +500, if he does win this I think he gets a hold of DC's neck in a scramble or something. I think he's a much stronger grappler than he showed against OSP, who he definitely should've been able to get out of there, imo.

Other than that we've seen him get guys like Bader, Machida, Rampage, Vitor, with a few different subs so he's not a one hit wonder that can only rely on one sub to snatch. Got the rnc on Page, amerikana (sp?) on Vitor, standing guillotine on Lyoto, got BAder in a front headlock or something while they were on the ground, iirc, but could be wrong on that one.

DC's got a hell of a chin, Bones not a big puncher, DC's bjj not on the same level. I could see an old and tired DC making a mistake and giving up his neck going for a sloppy td or something. +500 seems like a decent price, think it might be worth a small stab.
 
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