Was talking to JImGunn and EZ and after doing a bit of additional research I'm not just switching my pick to Casey but putting a bet on her. Here was the reasoning as discussed with my boy JG. I just wanted to make sure nobody read my original preview and used it as reasoning to play JAG ..
So...
Jessica and Casey.
So yeah, initially I was on Jag but after talking to EZ + JG and watching a bit more footage, I am inclined to switch plays. Going back and watching Courtney I was concerned with her TDD against Claudia and because Jessica is virtually a poor woman's Claudia I was worried we'd get a similar results. Also JoJo Calderwood was able to take Courtney down multiple times as well. However, after going back and watching I was actually impressed with Courtney's performance against Claudia. She did get taken down but she was also very active off of her back and was hustling back to her feet every time she hit the mat. Anytime she's taken down she never accepts defeat or lets her shoulders get flat on the canvas so that her opponent can secure position.
What's more, she has a really crafty guard which was even able to secure an arm bar finish over Randa Markos. Additionally, I wasn't aware of the fact that heading into the Claudia fight that she had suffered an automobile accident and missed four weeks of camp because of it. And of course she took the JoAnn Calderwood fight on super short notice and flew halfway around the world to take it. Moreover that was over two years ago and she has progressed infinitely since then.
Meanwhile, JAG is 35 years old and is coming off of a torn ACL in her last fight. She's been out 22-months and who knows where her head and body is. It must be at peak form so she can get past a young hungry lioness like Casey.
Basically if Jessica is to win this fight, she's going to have to dig extremely deep. Courtney Casey isn't an easy fight when you are on a roll much less when you are coming off myriad physical and mental issues.
Finally, Courtney has excellent footwork being a former soccer player and she has improved striking she can do a lot of damage. She is supremely active and I could see her overwhelming Jessica. If there is a finish I do believe it will be Casey who gets it.
I'd love to hear additional thoughts!