UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas - Part II

[Orion]

agree with jj being hittable. jj v gadelha was in a small cage for the tuf 23 finale btw if thats something that could be a factor regarding the amount the fight hits the cage/clinch

Source on it being a smaller cage? I was there live at the grand garden and it didn't look any different / I don't see why theyd use a smaller cage for the MGM arena

 

[Antagonist88]

Hope the Branch money keeps coming in. I don't think he has the style to give Jotko any problems

 

[TheOneTrueKing]

Source on it being a smaller cage? I was there live at the grand garden and it didn't look any different / I don't see why they use a smaller cage for the MGM arena

it was mentioned in the commentary, possibly on the walkout. maybe i'm mixing up there first fight. think it was 2nd tho. definitely one of them

do they use it for tuf events? they tend to be smaller shows and all the previous fights of the tournament are small cage im guessing

 

[Itsnotthatseriousmydude]

The fight between Jj and Andrade is definitely close. The way I see the footwork and bull rushing issue is that it's true Joanna doesn't have a mobility based footwork style to matador Andrade around. What she does have however is a willingness and desire to throw elbows. If you aren't going to step out of the way one of the best ways to stop forward momentum is to stick a nice big chunk of bone in the way for the aggressor to run into. I think it's something Andrade isn't used to. Eating elbows is different from eating punches. It's a huge difference in my mind. I see The potential for Andrade to hit TDs is definitely there and I see the idea behind the potential for a swarm attack but I just think the muy Thai style is going to help jj intercept and interrupt that attack whereas opponents have previously run from Andrade.

 

[Cornrow Kenny]

The fight between Jj and Andrade is definitely close. The way I see the footwork and bull rushing issue is that it's true Joanna doesn't have a mobility based footwork style to matador Andrade around. What she does have however is a willingness and desire to throw elbows. If you aren't going to step out of the way one of the best ways to stop forward momentum is to stick a nice big chunk of bone in the way for the aggressor to run into. I think it's something Andrade isn't used to. Eating elbows is different from eating punches. It's a huge difference in my mind. I see The potential for Andrade to hit TDs is definitely there and I see the idea behind the potential for a swarm attack but I just think the muy Thai style is going to help jj intercept and interrupt that attack whereas opponents have previously run from Andrade.

JoJo intercepted with an elbow that cut Andrade before she got dumped on her head and submitted. Hill tried intercepting with knees and elbows but it didn't work.

 

[DevilsPt2]

Dude I definitely can. Especially guys who come from a grappling background like D.C and Couture. Maia getting tired is something to keep in mind, but I'm not a bettor of conjecture and that's what you're doing if you say to yourself "because Maia is 39 he will definitely tire worse than ever this fight" with no real proof of that

I think we said all that needs to be said on those factors so I'll move on.

Reading some of your other posts, I didnt go back and check but I believe you were talking about how Masivdal keeps his hands up at all times. If my assumption is true you were implying since Masvidal keeps his hands up at all times that would favor Maia, again, if true, nice level 1 thought.

Now if you study a bit deeper Masvidal said in an nterview regarding this fight that if someone has a killer right or a killer left of course he keeps his hands up and this may affect his tdd or something to that effect(I'll find it after I post this) I think I may have added that it may affect his tdd in my own mind but I digress. If Maia doesnt have any threats until the fight hits the ground then why believe Masvidal wont have his hands lower to defend the real threat? Is Masvidal stupid in your mind or just ignorant of what a hand picked fighter brings? You know Masvidal picked Maia right? You know he picked him from a list of matchups he felt favorable? Yes, I know Glover picked Johnson. Yes I saw how that went. Tell me the relevance and I'll tell you why it's not. I digress too much, I'm sorry, my mind works on a dfferent level. I'll give you a chance to respond first before I continue.

 

[cagebrain]

You have got to be kidding me, besides JB you are the number #1 enabler of shitposters on this forum. Imo you and JB hold the most blame for the downfall of this thread because you enable the trolls and actually stick up for them. You are going to pretend that they annoy you too now that public opinion has changed, sad.

The problem with the ignore button is, shitposters can still derail the conversations in the thread, it makes the environment worse. Just ignoring something isn't enough because good objective back and forth dialogue is being stifled. This is a pretty easy to grasp idea, clinging to the "you can just ignore them" argument is ignorant of how forums function.

dude, every time you emerge it's to shit on someone/call them out. Then they defend themselves and you go back and forth with the insults. I'd take MMA Gambling Expert over your AAA shit posts any day. You contribute only negativity to this forum. #realtalk

 

[DevilsPt2]

dude, every time you emerge it's to shit on someone/call them out. Then they defend themselves and you go back and forth with the insults. I'd take MMA Gambling Expert over your AAA shit posts any day. You contribute only negativity to this forum. #realtalk

Who gives a fuck, control what you can, if you want substance then bring it.

 

[Mcgregorian]

just placed 8u on casey at 1.84. (dont place this much if your tailing at not used to big swings) very pleased with this price. i think casey has the edge everywhere and is still improving. i'm not impressed by Aguilar. all her fights look the same. didn't really see much too be concerned with at all. not been fighting the best competition either. casey has more power and will land more too imo. i'm not worried about the ground if she is taken down. the scoring now doesn't reward lay and pray and i feel casey can score more from bottom than Aguilar would score even from top. casey will get up easy enough if she choses anyways. both are tough chicks but if anyone's getting finished its Aguilar. Esparza reckons Aguilar been on the juice so been avoiding the ufc. she getting old too now for the weight class. lots of casey's previous fight were on short notice. expecting a stand out performance here against an over rated fighter.

Esparza should just fuck off and concentrate on her own weak game. I can't stand that bitch

 

[Itsnotthatseriousmydude]

JoJo intercepted with an elbow that cut Andrade before she got dumped on her head and submitted. Hill tried intercepting with knees and elbows but it didn't work.[/

Yup. And Jojo left her neck out on a half guard sweep instead of planting her head and hill was more focused on movement then planting and hurting. It's possible that Andrade does to jj what she did to either hill or jojo. Neither one of those girls are jj though. That's why you can't say jj is gonna do to Andrade what she did to Esparza. When I look at look at how their techniques line up against each other rather than other girls, I gotta lean towards jj.

 

[Mcgregorian]

This is true and im gonna hate myself if maia blankets mas easily but i just got this big question mark over at 40 almost with 9 months out how long maia can keep pulling these performances out. I love mas but he is getting overrated imo. Without the cowboy fight what would odds be here? Mas's confidence is just infectious tho or maybe im just stupid but if maia wasnt old id have 5 units on him.

I am starting to do a u turn on this fight. I think you are completely right about the Masvidal hype. I rewatched tape and if i back Masvidal i am banking on another amazing performance which he hasn't produced in previous fights.

So what is the bet here? Would Maia Sub and Mas DEC be a safe bet for such an unclear fight?

 

[cagebrain]

I am with @Joseph Budden and @EzFlyer on this one regarding Maia. I'm huge on Maia right now with 7.4u spread over his ML, +3.5, and not Mas ITD.

Every time I reconsider this fight I get more and more confident in Maia. I can't really see a scenario in which Maia can't get a hold of Mas and easily get him down. I don't see Mas getting up either. Even if he does, I think Maia gets the TD all night whenever he wants (at least for the first 2 rounds).

As @Joseph Budden said, banking on Maia having worse cardio is a complete gamble. He's shown no evidence of this. What he has shown evidence of is his constantly improving wrestling technique. Maia's TD techniques are almost Khabib level at this point in terms of how many ways he knows to get you down, one way or another.

What are Masvidal's paths to victory? One is the clean KO. Not very likely though. If he drops Maia with strikes, he's gonna have to follow him down where I give Maia a huge chance of surviving and sweeping Mas. If he doesn't follow him down, he gives Maia time to recover enough to shoot TD's and clinch again.

What about Mas decision? I think we all agree that unless Maia will probably take rd 1. Can Masvidal win rd 2? I doubt it . I think Maia will not gas himself out as much as he did vs Rory due to the size difference. Maia is a big WW and Masvidal is a big LW. I wouldn't be surprised if Maia is 15 lbs heavier on fight night. I also think the strength differential will be huge. Mas has good TDD technique but I don't think he can match Maia in strength, therefore not draining Maia's gas tank as much.

Maia can win a decision, he can win by Sub. I give Mas a (decent) punchers chance coupled with the small chance of Maia gassing before getting a TD in rd 2.

I honestly cap this -180 Maia.

 

[DevilsPt2]

I am with @Joseph Budden and @EzFlyer on this one regarding Maia. I'm huge on Maia right now with 7.4u spread over his ML, +3.5, and not Mas ITD.

Every time I reconsider this fight I get more and more confident in Maia. I can't really see a scenario in which Maia can't get a hold of Mas and easily get him down. I don't see Mas getting up either. Even if he does, I think Maia gets the TD all night whenever he wants (at least for the first 2 rounds).

As @Joseph Budden said, banking on Maia having worse cardio is a complete gamble. He's shown no evidence of this. What he has shown evidence of is his constantly improving wrestling technique. Maia's TD techniques are almost Khabib level at this point in terms of how many ways he knows to get you down, one way or another.

What are Masvidal's paths to victory? One is the clean KO. Not very likely though. If he drops Maia with strikes, he's gonna have to follow him down where I give Maia a huge chance of surviving and sweeping Mas. If he doesn't follow him down, he gives Maia time to recover enough to shoot TD's and clinch again.

What about Mas decision? I think we all agree that unless Maia will probably take rd 1. Can Masvidal win rd 2? I doubt it . I think Maia will not gas himself out as much as he did vs Rory due to the size difference. Maia is a big WW and Masvidal is a big LW. I wouldn't be surprised if Maia is 15 lbs heavier on fight night. I also think the strength differential will be huge. Mas has good TDD technique but I don't think he can match Maia in strength, therefore not draining Maia's gas tank as much.

Maia can win a decision, he can win by Sub. I give Mas a punchers chance coupled with the small chance of Maia gassing before getting a TD in rd 2.

I honestly cap this -180 Maia.

Thats how you bring substance but on another note

How about you let JB defend himself Tracy.

A "punchers chance" but cap Maia at -180, I need say nothng but I will if you want.

 

[Mcgregorian]

You really are making Sherdog great again

 

[cagebrain]

Jotko at -145 on 5D. He is reaching playable territory again

JJ/JA o3.5 @ -200 its still pretty parlayable IMO

JJ DEC is +110 but JJ UD is +195 thats a pretty big gap.

The u2.5 on Edgar/Yair is +210 and climbing. Yair can finish Frankie on the feet and Frankie can finish Yair on the ground. Something worth looking into if it keeps climbing

Edgar Sub is +1000. Hmm. How reckless are Yair's getups? Can Frankie catch a back take or guillotine on a Yair that is trying to explode through movements instead of using technique?

Cejudo DEC is -160. Not bad considering he's the -410 fav and the o2.5 is -325.

All spots i am considering but haven't pulled the trigger on any as of yet.

 

[Cornrow Kenny]

You really are making Sherdog great again

 

[cagebrain]

I am starting to do a u turn on this fight. I think you are completely right about the Masvidal hype. I rewatched tape and if i back Masvidal i am banking on another amazing performance which he hasn't produced in previous fights.

So what is the bet here? Would Maia Sub and Mas DEC be a safe bet for such an unclear fight?

at current odds my favorites are Maia ML and Maia +3.5

 

[ill800]

Need to get on my undercard tape this week. Watched some of jotko today. He is just a solid all around fighter. He handled Thales leites, albeit he was gassed.

Loved the way he scrambled to get top during the takedowns. Was able to hold leites down with no danger of a submission.

He's also a pretty good striker. He mixes it up and he has power. Landed a beautiful counter left hook on mccrory and laid him stiff.

Watched a bit of branch. I'd like to see his most recent wsof tape. Wasn't overly impressed. He seems athletic and explosive. His wrestling didn't look like much from the little bit I watched. I think he pulled guard vs gerald Harris to defend a td. Grant it this was 5 years ago so I don't know how much I can take away from that

As of right now I don't see many reasons jotko doesn't win the fight. Definitely need to watch branchs latest matches

 

[cagebrain]

Thats how you bring substance but on another note

How about you let JB defend himself Tracy.

A "punchers chance" but cap Maia at -180, I need say nothng but I will if you want.

1. Not all punchers chances are created equal. Example, Rumble's punchers chance against DC got him to be the favorite. Masvidal's punchers chance is pretty decent as far as puncher's chances go due to the striking discrepancy. I call it a punchers chance because I don't see the fight staying on the feet very long so Mas has a small window to capitalize on his striking advantage.
2. A puncher's chance PLUS the chance of Mas taking rd 2 and 3. Just becuase I haven't seen evidence of Maia's cardio taking a nose dive, he is 39 and I don't discount the possibility completely. After all, I have watched the Rory fight and rd 5 vs LaFlare.

that is why I cap Maia around -180 and not higher.

 

[Joseph Budden]

I think we said all that needs to be said on those factors so I'll move on.

Reading some of your other posts, I didnt go back and check but I believe you were talking about how Masivdal keeps his hands up at all times. If my assumption is true you were implying since Masvidal keeps his hands up at all times that would favor Maia, again, if true, nice level 1 thought.

Now if you study a bit deeper Masvidal said in an nterview regarding this fight that if someone has a killer right or a killer left of course he keeps his hands up and this may affect his tdd or something to that effect(I'll find it after I post this) I think I may have added that it may affect his tdd in my own mind but I digress. If Maia doesnt have any threats until the fight hits the ground then why believe Masvidal wont have his hands lower to defend the real threat? Is Masvidal stupid in your mind or just ignorant of what a hand picked fighter brings? You know Masvidal picked Maia right? You know he picked him from a list of matchups he felt favorable? Yes, I know Glover picked Johnson. Yes I saw how that went. Tell me the relevance and I'll tell you why it's not. I digress too much, I'm sorry, my mind works on a dfferent level. I'll give you a chance to respond first before I continue.

Mas stands up right. That makes it easier to get in on the hips. Those are facts.

Cause you're asking me to bet on conjecture, yet again. Why would I say to myself "oh despite 50 fights of the same stance I'm sure Mas will change It up for Maia"