UFC 210 - DC vs AJ 2 - Buffalo

[t6p]

I think AJ has power but he always has. He couldn't put DC away the first time and I think DC may be the smartest fighter in the light heavyweight division.

I also question Rumble's camp with the performances of Evans and Luque.

I guess if I were to bet Rumble I would just bet KO because I don't see any other way he wins this. JMO.

Normally I'd agree with you but at current prices (ML -115, KO +100) I think it makes more sense to take the ML just in case.

 

[iGnP]

Blackzilian fighters' recent results (affiliated fighters taken from their official website):


AJ: Win vs Glover via KO
Rashad Evans: Loss vs Dan Kelly via Dec
Michael Johnson: Loss vs Khabib via Sub
Gilbert Burns: Loss vs Prazeres via Dec
Kamaru Usman: Win vs Warlley Alves via Dec
Linton Vassell (Bellator): Win vs Carmont via Dec
Volkan Oezdemir: Win vs OSP via Dec
Danny Roberts: Loss vs Mike Perry via KO
Abel Trujillo: Loss vs James Vick via Sub
Andre Soukhamthath: Loss vs Morales via Dec
Luis Firmino (WSOF): Loss vs Justin Gaethje via TKO
Carrington Bank (Bellator): Win vs Jake Roberts via Dec
Vincente Luque: Loss vs Leon Edwards via Dec

Wins: 5
Losses: 8

38% Win Rate

You had a good idea, but I dont think listing wins and losses says anything without talking about the odds each fight had. Let me add to that...

Out of the 5 wins listed above, 3 of them (AJ, Usman, and Vassell) were decent sized favorites going into their fights. Banks was a pick em and won. And while Oezdemir won as a big dog, most people thought OSP won that fight so I'm not sure what you can take from that (14/16 media score cards had it for OSP, although most were 29-28 OSP, so admittedly, it was close).

Now out of the 8 losses, 6 fighters were either favorites or at pick em odds: Evans (-210), Burns (-185), Roberts (-170), Luque (-170), Trujillo (pick), Souk (opened as fav but closed as underdog)

2 of the 8 losses came when the fighter in question was a decent sized dog

 

[Rebel_LioN]

There's no way anyone can be confident on any side of the Cormier/Rumble moneyline.

Unless you've already placed a bet and trying to psych yourself.

I'm skipping this fight til they walk into the cage then I'll bet it since it's the last fight anyways. Those odds aren't goin anywhere barring an injury rumor or something.

 

[EzFlyer]

There's no way anyone can be confident on any side of the Cormier/Rumble moneyline.

Unless you've already placed a bet and trying to psych yourself.

I'm skipping this fight til they walk into the cage then I'll bet it since it's the last fight anyways. Those odds aren't goin anywhere barring an injury rumor or something.

i see things differently.

i'm confident that AJ will be dangerous as hell in rd 1. might outright KO him. or might hurt him badly and still win the round.

if it gets to that point, i can and will live bet DC.

 

[Sham5916910]

I have a feeling Bibulatov might open heavily favored. Not sure where he will be for a debutante but I'm imagining it could be expensive, or it might not be.

Realistically, his wrestling will get him the W but he doesn't look that good yet at holding people down. I mean, at 125lbs it's really hard to hold guys down because they're flyweights.

Jenel is a pretty skilled striker and he's pretty athletic and fit. He could actually develop into a good MMA fighter if he seeks training at somewhere like Tiger Muay Thai. But as it stands he's gonna have a hard time wrestling with a Russian.

I like Jenel I hope he sticks around.

Jenel sucks at getting back to his feet.

 

[iGnP]

i see things differently.

i'm confident that AJ will be dangerous as hell in rd 1. might outright KO him. or might hurt him badly and still win the round.

if it gets to that point, i can and will live bet DC.

Well, what happens if round 1 goes the exact same way the first fight did? Because Cormier definitely won that round in my mind even though there was a (flash) knock down

 

[EzFlyer]

Well, what happens if round 1 goes the exact same way the first fight did? Because Cormier definitely won that round in my mind even though there was a (flash) knock down

best answer i can give: i'm willing to gamble on that

i think AJ ko's him in the first, honestly

 

[Joseph Budden]

Its kind of perplexing when you rewatch DC vs AJ and realize how balls to the wall AJ went in that first round. He fights like he knows if he doesn't get the early KO hes in trouble. I hope hes more measured like hes looked lately and like he did vs Phil Davis.

 

[iGnP]

Its kind of perplexing when you rewatch DC vs AJ and realize how balls to the wall AJ went in that first round. He fights like he knows if he doesn't get the early KO hes in trouble. I hope hes more measured like hes looked lately and like he did vs Phil Davis.

When do you mean specifically? I remember AJ getting the knock down pretty early then a lot of grappling for the rest of the round

He did seem pretty tired at the end of round 1 (i could be wrong but he didnt have good body language imo). If you were Rumble, and you felt like your gas was running low, wouldn't you also have some urgency to be aggressive come round 2? DC took the fight to Rumble and made him work for the majority of the round after getting knocked down

 

[Joseph Budden]

When do you mean specifically? I remember AJ getting the knock down pretty early then a lot of grappling for the rest of the round

He did seem pretty tired at the end of round 1 (i could be wrong but he didnt have good body language imo). If you were Rumble, and you felt like your gas was running low, wouldn't you also have some urgency to be aggressive come round 2? DC took the fight to Rumble and made him work for the majority of the round after getting knocked down

Its been a couple of weeks now, rewatched when lines came out, but every strike he threw (specifically remembering the overhand and a switch HK) he just threw with ALL power. Seemed like no regard for having 4 more rounds. Compared to Glover (I know, very fast) or the Bader fight where he just seems much more patient and measured in finding the shot.

I'm on AJ and just really hoping we don't see the same, where that first round hes going no fucks given when it comes to throwing with power. Would rather him lose with a different approach than watch him fail in a similar manner yet again

 

[Sham5916910]

Davis didnt make rumble work thats why rumbles cardio held up fine. Dc had him defending tds for large parts of r1 and r2 which takes a lot of energy hence why rumble got rumbled.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Davis didnt make rumble work thats why rumbles cardio held up fine. Dc had him defending tds for large parts of r1 and r2 which takes a lot of energy hence why rumble got rumbled.

Not saying you don't have a point, and I should rewatch the Davis fight for more clarity, but Rumble wasn't really putting 110% behind his strikes vs Davis from what I remember. Thats how he came out vs DC though. Was very cognizant of the td threat and displayed a measured, technical approach standing vs Davis. Iirc his strategy seemed to be defend tds first, counter with combos immediately after. Vs DC he landed that overhand with everything behind it and just went for it after that harder than he shouldl've

Feel free to correct me if i'm wrong guys. Apologies ahead of time if i'm really remembering things horribly. My memory feels like its getting worse and worse, need to try to cut back on the marijuana during this three week break

 

[iGnP]

Its been a couple of weeks now, rewatched when lines came out, but every strike he threw (specifically remembering the overhand and a switch HK) he just threw with ALL power. Seemed like no regard for having 4 more rounds. Compared to Glover (I know, very fast) or the Bader fight where he just seems much more patient and measured in finding the shot.

I'm on AJ and just really hoping we don't see the same, where that first round hes going no fucks given when it comes to throwing with power. Would rather him lose with a different approach than watch him fail in a similar manner yet again

IDK. I'm on AJ too and realize his chances of winning decline with every passing round. I don't want him doing anything differently than what he's done so far. He's a beast and he's gotta live and die by the sword. If DC can withstand his best shots and then beat AJ, well, hats off to him, he's the better man

 

[pytycrys]

IMO, if AJ is more patient and comes with better cardio, Cormier is fucked.
AJ just did Cormier's game in the first fight, coming all out in the first round, then being tired, kept on the ground and subbed.
If AJ plays this one smarter, he has the fight.

 

[Sham5916910]

Mago is gonna ragdoll lausa and i doubt he will be able to get up.

 

[Officer_Brown]

dc lookin weird.. confidence increas aj

 

[Social Distance Warrior]

IMO, if AJ is more patient and comes with better cardio, Cormier is fucked.
AJ just did Cormier's game in the first fight, coming all out in the first round, then being tired, kept on the ground and subbed.
If AJ plays this one smarter, he has the fight.

That's my analysis as well...

I think if this fight goes past round 2, it's over.

I'm probably going to make a small bet on DC in round 3.

 

[Barkus]

IMO, if AJ is more patient and comes with better cardio, Cormier is fucked.
AJ just did Cormier's game in the first fight, coming all out in the first round, then being tired, kept on the ground and subbed.
If AJ plays this one smarter, he has the fight.

Exactly my thoughts. I think Rumble had the same affliction Conor did when Conor fought Diaz the first time. Rumble was coming off a string of brutal KOs and fell in love with his power. Rumble just fought a stupidly high aggression fight and gassed from the pace he himself set. He knows how the first fight went down and it's very unlikely he will fight that way again.

If Rumbles fights patiently and uses his solid tdd and edge at range to force Cormier to work to get inside contantly, Cormier will have a hell of a time winning this fight. We've seen Cormier's cardio falter if he's forced to fight this way against like it did vs Jones. And we've saw how good Rumbles cardio is when he fights patiently, as he did against Phil Davis.

I like Rumble dec, NOT Cormier by sub, and Rumble moneyline. This will be a huge fight for me.

 

[SalvadorAllende]

i'm so sold on AJ now. i'll live bet DC if needed, but i think AJ is gonna ko him this time. DC is pulling out of fights, i think he's gonna start to decline soon.. AJ +100 is the # i wanted, and i got it, so i'm doing it. gonna be a pretty big bet.

I think DC looked horrible in the Anderson fight. He was gassed in the third and was even hurt by a 2 days notice fossil Silva. Im probably the only one who thinks that Silva would have finished DC in a 5 rounder. Call me crazy but I though that when I saw the fight live.

I think Rumble is making quick work here. He will be much more prepared than last time. No grinding here, it will be a slaughter. DC is on his way out.

 

[SalvadorAllende]

I'm already big on Weidman here and hopefully this isn't just the Long Island fanboy in me. We've never seen Chris outstruck overall on his feet really with fights against Silva 2x, Rockhold, Machida, Uriah Hall, Munoz, Belfort (MOST of the punches were blocked I thought), etc. so why am I to believe that Mousasi should be much different? I think Chris can possibly hold his own on the feet with the pressure but he has a clear path to victory with his wrestling and ground and pound.

Mousasi hasn't fought too many wrestlers recently either. He beat Munoz 3 years ago when Munoz was done and on his way out. Beat Latifi 4 years ago but Latifi is 5'8" and I don't think either of these guys are on Weidmans level when it comes to wrestling let alone their overall mma game.

I also think that the line reflects the "what have you done lately' mentality. Chris has been knocked out his last 2 fights and Gegard has 3 knockouts against some pretty big names. What would the line have been 2 years ago? I think the fight being in New York helps too. Gegard has to travel and adjust to the time difference since it will be about 4-5am his time and Chris has a 45 minute flight or about a 5 hour drive.

I'll pay to see him lose as I think Chris has more ways to win. I also don't think he's on the decline but just ran into 2 monsters that are part of the top 4 or 5 in the world.

Weidman (+110) $72.73 to win $80
Weidman ITD (+365) $10.96 to win $40

Only thing that concers me about Mousasi is him training with bums like Satoshi Ishii. Go to Jackson, Tristar or somewhere decent for fucks sake.

I think he is by far the better striker and also people sleeps on his grappling. I think he will be going for takedowns too. He has good trips from the clinch and his top control is top notch.
If he puts Weidman on his back he is going to lay a beating.

Chris has a pretty clear path to victory and that is wrestlebox all night long: Throw a few punches in order to set up a power double leg and try to stay on top for 15 minutes.

If Moose keeps it standing I think he outworks Weidman and after the punches start to pile up in Chris face and with Weidman questionable cardio.. bad night for the All Murican.

That fight has awesomeness written all over it. Odds are at pick em and that is good.