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Are you serious? So how big is your bet
I emptied the clip
Are you serious? So how big is your bet
Good luck. I just dont see it. Yeah, everything you said about Rashad is true but I dont think Kelly is anything special. Even in his current declined state, I'd actually be shocked if he loses. Why didn't you wait for decision odds?I emptied the clip
Good luck. I just dont see it. Yeah, everything you said about Rashad is true but I dont think Kelly is anything special. Even in his current declined state, I'd actually be shocked if he loses. Why didn't you wait for decision odds?
I only have a bet on the over for now. Tempted to play Rashad decision. I probably will, thoughMy book only gives me ml and o/u. no props except for main events.
Thanks! Are you playing Rashad?
To those betting on Kelly- what are you capping this fight? Surely you can't just be fading Rashad blindly
To those betting on Kelly- what are you capping this fight? Surely you can't just be fading Rashad blindly
Not trying to beat a dead horse but outside of Rashad's decline, is there a reason why you cap it so close?Rashad -125 to -140 is where I cap it.
Kelly worth a small play at currenty odds, but going nuts on him in this spot is...well...nuts imo.
Not trying to beat a dead horse but outside of Rashad's decline, is there a reason why you cap it so close?
Khabib will attempt many TDs, this is known however the places he could get the TDs may be limited in this fight. Shooting for the double in the clinch is a nono on someone with the snapdown and darce ability of Ferg. Fergs natural instinct is to look for the choke even before the choke comes.
MJ has a fantastic sprawl here but he isnt as drilled as other grapplers in the controlling of the opponents head and neck, so he looks for the choke to late.
Here we see a similar entry by a training partner of Khabib at AKA shoot for a similar takedown but Ferg's instinct is to look for the darce. Notice how the difference in the reaction times between MJ and Ferg looking for the neck.
Kelly is durable and crafty, if athletically limited. Has a little pop and honestly after all these years I do think Rashad's decline is real. Not just in speed and athletic ability, but in his ability to absorb any amount of punishment at all.
And even if Rashad's chin isn't completely shot, I don't have a ton of confidence that he has enough fire anymore to fight through any sort of adversity. He got to the top of the mountain, has had a long career, done the commentating, etc. Kelly is old but I believe more in him when it comes to passion. You have to have that drive if you get in a bad spot to make you want to fight through it. Sounds cheezy, but tapping or turtling up comes easier when you're in Rashad's spot imo.
And again, if forced to pick a winner I'd take Rashad in spite of everything I just said. But laying -200 or more? No way.
You are no longer the face of MMA betting, I have replaced you.Craig is a full time teacher. Most likely trains max 6 times per week. No KO power. Pulled guard against Henrique. Pedros ground game is on different level compared to Craig.
Hardest fight to call on the whole card. So many unknowns, I think Rashad wins but Kelly is the play if you're gonna make one. I'm staying far away though.Totally agree re passion. Also look at their momentum. Kelly is red hot continually beating guys he shouldnt.
Hashad is coming off losses and a long layoff.
From a confidence perspective Kelly has all the points and he should be mentally in a much better place.
I think the confidence and passion is more important right now as they are both old depleted dudes.
Expert Play Incoming
LOL at the number on Paul Craig, how is he not like -200
Tyson Predro is super green and unproven
5 fights
Never been out of the first round
This fight will be his first out of Australia
Tentative on the feet
Low volume
Unknown camp
Got dropped in his debut
I could go all day, why is this fight a pick'em?
Bear Jew is a beast, was super impressed by his debut, he dominated a Henrique on the feet, ground and clinch. So many things I like about that performance.
I think he dominates this inexperienced kid.
Bear Jew is EZ money.
LOL Pedro does not train at JW, seems like he spent a few weeks there for this camp but it's not his gym.lol@ expert play
Craig
only been outside round 1 two times himself
comes from a noname camp while Pedro trains at JW
is a part time fighter
calling him a beast becourse he beat one of the worst guy on the ufc roster and a guy that gassed after a couple minutes
LOL Pedro does not train at JW, seems like he spent a few weeks there for this camp but it's not his gym.
Craig is 12-0 including amateur fights
Beating Henrique who was 12-0 at the time 2-0 UFC says a lot more than exploiting Rountree's white belt ground game.
Have you actually seen Craig's UFC debut?
This is going to look like a mismatch because it is one, mark my words.
Bear Jew will destroy him
In Pedro's debut he was so tentative on the feet, he couldn't even throw a punch, all he would do was throw side kicks to the leg, he looked super uncomfortable before getting dropped. He seems like a one dimensional fighter, he just wants to grapple. I don't care if he's done Japanese jujitsu his whole life, he's green and he has hardly any experience competing, it looks obvious when he fights too.he been at JW for at least 6 weeks
i dont really care for his record.. his last 3 wins are decent but before that his opponents combined record is like 7 wins 50 looses meaningless to count those for anything
ya i saw the fight i even bet on him to win vs Frankenstein it was solid debut for sure but i dont rate Frakenstein at all
you also mention Pedro is green? he may have fewer mma fights but he has been doing martial arts his hole life while Craig started only 5 years ago