UFC 209 - Twood vs Wonderboy II - Vegas

[NinjaCat456]

I have 2u on Kelly and might add more. He is my fave dog on the card. With his Judo TDs I could see him controlling the fight easily.

Thanks for heads up on south. I dont remember him but will be on him.

Really? You think Kelly's judo > Rashad's wrestling?

 

[plekz]

Jon Jones in that dept? Yeah, Jones threw him on his head like a dad throwing his kid around. GSP with zero wrestling creds dominating a division for years with...wrestling. There's other examples of course.

well ''god bless you'' aswell son, but if you think it's wise to use _extreme_ outliers as examples as to validate a point, that's really not a good way to go. gsp and jon jones being two of the best to ever grace the sport of mma, a guy in gsp who from the jump identified what it took to be successful in the sport of mma, and became almost obsessed with perfecting technique, who was training for _years_ with the canadian olympic team in wrestling, and who took on john danaher as a bjj coach? or on the flipside jon jones, who's a physical specimen unlike anything we've ever seen in that division, and who had a huge edge against anyone and everyone in that division because of this.

not to mention, being a _very_ accomplished wrestler himself from his college days

these are your examples? to make a support claim for a guy that is so wild and reckless on the feet that he has a tendency to get badly hurt in several figths he's had against quality opposition?

go look at the danny castillo fight, he's only 2,5 years removed from that (barely) unless the guy is 'bj.penn or keenan cornelius esque' the likelyhood that his ground would have somehow mighty morphin power rangers into the fucking mega zord is pretty slim.

 

[Sadistics]

LOL I have that too at +1465. Along with about a bazillion other Ferg bets. Got kinda reckless here. That said, I'm only really fucked if Khabib finishes because a lot of my action is NOT Khabib itd at -265. But I have plenty of other Ferg action too...

I'm in the same boat, my results for every outcome:

Ferg ITD +17 units
Ferg DEC +13 units
Khabib ITD -17 units
Khabib DEC +.5 units

Didn't realize how devastating Khabib ITD would be til writing this up, yet I'd still add another unit or two if Ferg gets to +200

 

[Cptn1NSAN0]

I think it even opened better than that. I passed on it since I went so heavy on Not Khabib itd at -265. I think the fight has a fairly decent shot of going to the cards, so the extra juice to get paid instead of push is fine by me, esp since I have the Ferg ML and Ferg sub bets too. My not Khabib itd makes me feel a bit less exposed on those bets since I think Khabib's best chance to win is dec and if he does I get paid on my not itd bet.

I would've preferred NOT Khabib ITD for all those same reasons but it was well over -300 by the time I got around to checking it out. I really need to start doing all my tape watching more in advance.

 

[Cptn1NSAN0]

I'm in the same boat, my results for every outcome:

Ferg ITD +17 units
Ferg DEC +13 units
Khabib ITD -17 units
Khabib DEC +.5 units

Didn't realize how devastating Khabib ITD would be til writing this up, yet I'd still add another unit or two if Ferg gets to +200

You have some big ol' clankers my friend.

 

[mkess101]

well ''god bless you'' aswell son, but if you think it's wise to use _extreme_ outliers as examples as to validate a point, that's really not a good way to go. gsp and jon jones being two of the best to ever grace the sport of mma, a guy in gsp who from the jump identified what it took to be successful in the sport of mma, and became almost obsessed with perfecting technique, who was training for _years_ with the canadian olympic team in wrestling, and who took on john danaher as a bjj coach? or on the flipside jon jones, who's a physical specimen unlike anything we've ever seen in that division, and who had a huge edge against anyone and everyone in that division because of this.

not to mention, being a _very_ accomplished wrestler himself from his college days

these are your examples? to make a support claim for a guy that is so wild and reckless on the feet that he has a tendency to get badly hurt in several figths he's had against quality opposition?

go look at the danny castillo fight, he's only 2,5 years removed from that (barely) unless the guy is 'bj.penn or keenan cornelius esque' the likelyhood that his ground would have somehow mighty morphin power rangers into the fucking mega zord is pretty slim.

LOL "son". I like it Plekz. I'm 40 now so nobody calls me that. I'll take it!

They are outliers, fine. But there's other examples. Jake Shield is a good grappler. Very good. Better than Maia? Umm, no. What happened in their MMA fight?

Tony had atrocious fight IQ vs Castillo. Rolling for leglocks and gifting top position over and over. If he does that vs Khabib, I'll just say "Well, he hasn't learned anything and he deserves to lose". I highly doubt we see that happen, but you never know.

I have yet to see Khabib even do damage to, let alone come close to finishing, anyone with even a semblance of a guard game. I don't mean the guy has to be Cobrinha, I'm talking even a DECENT game off their back. I'm not claiming Ferg would go out and win the Mundials here. I'm saying in an MMA fight he's good enough to hang in there, possibly lands some elbows of his own, and as you said cause scrambles that allow him to get to his feet. RDA is a very good grappler, but better with his top control than his guard. He took zero damage vs Khabib, and got up repeatedly.

Tony is reckless at times standing (not so much vs RDA though). But Khabib doesn't have the standup tools to make him pay most likely. I realize that's not really what we were talking about though.

We'll see come Saturday. I think anyone that believes Khabib just runs through Tony and easily applies his grappling dominance is in for a surprise. And if Khabib leaves his neck exposed like he did multiple times vs RDA, he's in danger of Tony's snapdown front headlock to D'arce. I'd assume that has been a focus in Khabib's camp though.

 

[mkess101]

I'm in the same boat, my results for every outcome:

Ferg ITD +17 units
Ferg DEC +13 units
Khabib ITD -17 units
Khabib DEC +.5 units

Didn't realize how devastating Khabib ITD would be til writing this up, yet I'd still add another unit or two if Ferg gets to +200

I haven't added mine up but I'm guessing similar ratio. Less units, but not by much. Which for me is entering YOLO territory...

 

[plekz]

Jake Shield is a good grappler. Very good. Better than Maia? Umm, no. What happened in their MMA fight?

Tony had atrocious fight IQ vs Castillo. Rolling for leglocks and gifting top position over and over. If he does that vs Khabib, I'll just say "Well, he hasn't learned anything and he deserves to lose". I highly doubt we see that happen, but you never know.

what you saw there though in that fight, that you are calling ''atrocious fight iq'' is a huge part of the 10 planet ''game'' which is why alot of people use bravo's school of thought as a punchline almost, simply because there's quite a few holes in it, and yet students of it tend to preach it as infallable and recite it chapter and verse like gospel.

also, jake shields is probably one of the most underrated grapplers to ever grace mma, should watch him vs roberto de souza @ meta 5, a bout he took by the way on barely one weeks notice.

ps: 'son' wasn't meant in the litteral sense, more like a ''c'mon man''



this is what i think of if people gave me two words to describe khabib's grappling style.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

what you saw there though in that fight, that you are calling ''atrocious fight iq'' is a huge part of the 10 planet ''game'' which is why alot of people use bravo's school of thought as a punchline almost, simply because there's quite a few holes in it, and yet students of it tend to preach it as infallable and recite it chapter and verse like gospel.

also, jake shields is probably one of the most underrated grapplers to ever grace mma, should watch him vs roberto de souza @ meta 5, a bout he took by the way on barely one weeks notice.

ps: 'son' wasn't meant in the litteral sense, more like a ''c'mon man''



this is what i think of if people gave me two words to describe khabib's grappling style.

Wow that is a terrible song

edit: ok it gets a little better when it gets to the hook/chorus

 

[LEMONZEST]

Really? You think Kelly's judo > Rashad's wrestling?

Yeah pretty much. 2017 Hashad is tenative AF

 

[mkess101]

what you saw there though in that fight, that you are calling ''atrocious fight iq'' is a huge part of the 10 planet ''game'' which is why alot of people use bravo's school of thought as a punchline almost, simply because there's quite a few holes in it, and yet students of it tend to preach it as infallable and recite it chapter and verse like gospel.

also, jake shields is probably one of the most underrated grapplers to ever grace mma, should watch him vs roberto de souza @ meta 5, a bout he took by the way on barely one weeks notice.

ps: 'son' wasn't meant in the litteral sense, more like a ''c'mon man''



this is what i think of if people gave me two words to describe khabib's grappling style.

I know how you meant it buddy, I was making a joke of it (son). Like I'm gonna get mad about you calling me that or something? C'mon man (ha ha see what I did there).

But yeah Jake is a really good grappler. I know he is. Agree, underrated. But not Maia. And he decisively beat Maia at Maia's own game.

As for 10th planet and the rubber guard:

I think it's a good "change up". 10th planet doesn't necessarily advocate constantly rolling for leglocks, unless I've missed something in what I've learned about it. But anyway, my view is that (in MMA) using it here and there to mix things up and give the opponent a different look is fine. Just don't exclusively rely on it. I know Tony does pretty heavily, but I've also seen him use a traditional guard (Trujillo fight).

And we'll see if Khabib is able to implement his "like glue" style over 25 minutes against a guy with a way bigger variety of weapons and a better gas tank. Maybe he can, and if he does I'll tip my hat to him for sure.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

Yeah pretty much. 2017 Hashad is tenative AF

Old man Kelly's luck has to run out at some point, the guy constantly over performs. Gotta think Rashad wins but nothing would shock me at this point, Kelly may just outwork him, what he does is not pretty but it's been effective for him so far.

If Rashad can't beat Kelly then he should be fighting. dropping to 185 is something you should of done years ago, IDK how the cut will go either, gotta keep a close eye on that.

 

[Shoulder]

Woodley odds keeps improving, 2.40 now at bet365. I'll wait and see if it goes higher I'll most def hit it.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

Woodley odds keeps improving, 2.40 now at bet365. I'll wait and see if it goes higher I'll most def hit it.

LOL I was considering hitting it at +110 a few days ago, so glad I didn't. Like Ferg and Woodley as dogs, I think they both win, EZ money.

Kenny Florian also likes Ferg and Mr Woodley

 

[letmebangbrah]

Woodley odds keeps improving, 2.40 now at bet365. I'll wait and see if it goes higher I'll most def hit it.

i just saw that too. pretty stunned it's that high. when the hell are the rest of the odds being released already.

 

[Shoulder]

LOL I was considering hitting it at +110 a few days ago, so glad I didn't. Like Ferg and Woodley as dogs, I think they both win, EZ money.

Kenny Florian also likes Ferg and Mr Woodley

Same here. I put a unit now and I'll wait and see if it climbs higher, then I'll play more.

I don't really understand how people keep betting the heavy favorites in these super close fights.

[email protected] and [email protected], and people keep hitting them...

 

[OneWarrior1]

The Lando hype train is getting out of control.

Teymur is more fundamentally sound and I"m sure he's seen many stand up artists like Vannata.

Vannata throws crazy shit tho, has a wrestling background, and trains at JacksonWink. I think this one could be close.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

The Lando hype train is getting out of control.

Teymur is more fundamentally sound and I"m sure he's seen many stand up artists like Vannata.

Vannata throws crazy shit tho, has a wrestling background, and trains at JacksonWink. I think this one could be close.

Teymur is a live dog in my eyes. High level kickboxer, don't know his exact record but I know he's got more than 40 kickboxing/muay thai fights, was announced as 38-2 in a video from a few years ago. Super violent and he knows how to compete, you can see that in his TUF fights, looked way more comfortable in his UFC fights, for sure made improvements training at All Stars. More worried about Lando's wrestling than striking. Teymur is a dark horse at 155, should really be at 145 though, Lando too.

 

[OneWarrior1]

Not impressed much with Luis Henrique. Wondering why Tybura didn't try to take down Tim Johnson sooner? Talk about stupid fight IQ

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

Not impressed much with Luis Henrique. Wondering why Tybura didn't try to take down Tim Johnson sooner? Talk about stupid fight IQ

Johnson broke his arm though and that's the only reason Tybura won that last round. Henrique is a good match up for Tybura though, should be able to stuff the TD's outstrike him, Tybura got some good BJJ too but I'm sure he wants this on the feet.