UFC 207 - Nunes vs Rousey - Vegas

[SBJJ]

I see you consistently acting like the Dodson fight will somehow mirror this one. If you think Dillashaw is just going to back himself straight into the fence and do nothing but launch counter left hands you do not have a good read on this fight. Thus why saying it is a different fight is, in fact, a good rebuttal

Buddens. People also said Dodson was a different matchup then Mayday. Seriously, u guys think Lineker will just do nothing?

Let me explain what I'm trying to get across. Cruz, TJ, and Cain(RIP) were all IMO rightful favorites. But IMO we need to be careful here. Talk of their opposition being bums is NOT helpful!!

The TJ Limeker fight is 3 rounds. Lineker has now proven he can pressure for 3 rounds. Can u not even envision a fight where most think TJ wins. But the judges give it to Lineker because he pushes forward and maybe busts TJ up a bit.

Sorry, it just gets me a bit to see such confidence in what seem like dangerous match ups for heavy favorites. I am just trying to help.

Also, I apologize again for saying whatever. We have a guy posting in here calling guys s and he gets less grief. A bit weird.

 

[SBJJ]

I sense a bit of resentment and anger, havin a bad Christmas, are we ?

U sensed resentment from that post? Really, LOL!!

 

[SBJJ]

I see you consistently acting like the Dodson fight will somehow mirror this one. If you think Dillashaw is just going to back himself straight into the fence and do nothing but launch counter left hands you do not have a good read on this fight. Thus why saying it is a different fight is, in fact, a good rebuttal

Burdens. My read on this fight is that TJ has more tools. But that Lineker MIGHT have intangibles that negate them to an extent.

I have NOT touted Lineker here heavy. I have NOT bet him heavy. But I see a real danger in thinking that this is a cake walk for TJ.

 

[mkess101]

Buddens. People also said Dodson was a different matchup then Mayday. Seriously, u guys think Lineker will just do nothing?

Let me explain what I'm trying to get across. Cruz, TJ, and Cain(RIP) were all IMO rightful favorites. But IMO we need to be careful here. Talk of their opposition being bums is NOT helpful!!

The TJ Limeker fight is 3 rounds. Lineker has now proven he can pressure for 3 rounds. Can u not even envision a fight where most think TJ wins. But the judges give it to Lineker because he pushes forward and maybe busts TJ up a bit.

Sorry, it just gets me a bit to see such confidence in what seem like dangerous match ups for heavy favorites. I am just trying to help.

Also, I apologize again for saying whatever. We have a guy posting in here calling guys s and he gets less grief. A bit weird.

To be fair, Dodson WAS a MUCH different matchup than Mayday. In fact, I thought Dodson won that fight, where as obviously Mayday just got wrecked.

TJ is a fairly big favorite, but not outrageously so imo. It's not like he's -400. Do I see a TON of value in TJ at this price? Nah, but I can't argue with those who think he'll win the fight somewhat comfortably either.

 

[SBJJ]

I agree Linekars more easier to game plan for but no ones solved the Linekar riddle yet, a granite chin, powerful hands and leg kicks with relentless pressure and solid take down defence has allowed him almost contendership title material.

Nearly every person recently he has faced has had to back up and not really implement their own style or game coming in.

I reckon TJs going struggle with take downs but he may have success with his footwork and countering here, but it probably only takes one of linekars bombs to back up tj and change the fight.

Still like the overs first, tj decision but like the idea of playing linekar decision or split d prop small flyer.

Yea. The over is my large bet here

 

[SBJJ]

To be fair, Dodson WAS a MUCH different matchup than Mayday. In fact, I thought Dodson won that fight, where as obviously Mayday just got wrecked.

TJ is a fairly big favorite, but not outrageously so imo. It's not like he's -400. Do I see a TON of value in TJ at this price? Nah, but I can't argue with those who think he'll win the fight somewhat comfortably either.

My point is different matchup or not. Lineker has a style that can win against almost any style. Especially in a 3 round fight.

I'm not saying a bet on TJ is bad or stupid. I'm saying acting like Lineker is a bum is!! Especially when u are betting a -240 guy.

I'm saying just TRY TRY TRY to envision a way Lineker can win. Why is it that some smart guys in here can envision it. But u(not u) are so hell bent that this is easy for TJ and Lineker Sucks.

I have a few times pumped the brakes on fights because of others opinions in here. But when you think 1 guy is a total bum it comes off as if u are not even open for debate.

 

[mkess101]

My point is different matchup or not. Lineker has a style that can win against almost any style. Especially in a 3 round fight.

I'm not saying a bet on TJ is bad or stupid. I'm saying acting like Lineker is a bum is!! Especially when u are betting a -240 guy.

I'm saying just TRY TRY TRY to envision a way Lineker can win. Why is it that some smart guys in here can envision it. But u(not u) are so hell bent that this is easy for TJ and Lineker Sucks.

I have a few times pumped the brakes on fights because of others opinions in here. But when you think 1 guy is a total bum it comes off as if u are not even open for debate.

Yeah calling Lineker a bum is just beyond stupid, even if you DO think TJ should be an even bigger favorite than he is. Lineker is FAR from a bum. Guy is a legit top 10 guy, probably top 5. And probably the best in the pocket fighter in the UFC.

 

[SBJJ]

Yeah calling Lineker a bum is just beyond stupid, even if you DO think TJ should be an even bigger favorite than he is. Lineker is FAR from a bum. Guy is a legit top 10 guy, probably top 5. And probably the best in the pocket fighter in the UFC.

Well, now u understand why I was frustrated.

I'm gonna end up small on Lineker and Large on over. I do favor TJ. But I do think this could be real close.

I think the reason TJ should not be favored so highly is because I just think it's likely to be close.

 

[BatBoyJG]

If you don't think TJ can lose just watch the Soto fight. If Soto had any power in his hands, TJ would have been in a bit of trouble. TJ got caught with mulitple quality counters from both sides. I am personally going with TJ, but keeping it to my hail mary parlays.

Much like others here I was big on Werdum (2 units) and I think that I'll be on Cody as well. I really really believe that he's going to connect with Cruz's chin & hurt him.

 

[Belgrade]

Honestly. Do you write this stuff to convince yourself. And how do u feel when u write this stuff and u end up being wrong? Do u self analyze at all after? U really sound like some college football tout. U completely discount Lineker like he's a bum. Do u think it's wise to think this way? Especially when u are dealing with such a favorite

</3 breaking my heart man haha. I appreciate the opinion of everybody in the thread and will continue to do so with you even though its not turning out to be very insightful on your part.

I like writing in-depth breakdowns, it may not happen but long term ive had success with analysis and will continue to trust it. If its wrong i feel just fine and try to not repeat my mistakes in the future, it does help I end up in the green more often than not I think nearly everybody here self analyzes after events, successful or not, or else it'd be nearly impossible to make profit in this sport.

Never watched college football in my life! I'm just throwing my analysis out there, not trying to persuade you or the thread but if you do want to talk about the fight im open to it. I realize he's -245 but its not like I just bet favorites (ie borg is probably my fav bet) and think he's pretty good parlay fodder for a happier new year.

I do respect Lineker, its just hard to give him lots of credit for his skillset when compared to a fighter with Dillashaws skillset. I accept the risks associated with this matchup because I know TJ will show up, not gas, and perform to the best of his abilities (easier said than done). Also please stop bringing up the Dodson fight. I passed on that one and the odds were like -120 in Dodsons favor, its not like Lineker scored some cray upset.

Merry Christmas!

 

[Oblivian]

Did someone actually call Lineker a bum?

 

[Cptn1NSAN0]

It's been beaten to death. The fact is this is the same things being said before the Dodson fight. Saying its a different fight is no rebuttal. If u can't learn from mistakes. Then you will keep making them.

I'm not even betting Lineker big. But do u really think calling Lineker a bum is helping the community here? And especially when u are dealing with a 2.5 to 1 favorite? Man I'm just trying to get some of the dudes that are touting this favorite to chill a bit. But it's like their minds are made up that TJ is Elite and Lineker is a bum

The last thing on Officer Browns mind if TJ loses will be that I said whatever in a post. I actually like him but I honestly think he's going too far here.

But hey, sorry I offended.

Didn't really offend me, I just think you're a good poster and capper so I found it odd to see you act seemingly out of character. Maybe I missed that part, calling Lineker a bum is pretty asinine. He has no technical advantages here imo but this is the fight game and anything can happen, I definitely think backing Lineker at 2:1 odds is completely reasonable. As a TJ fan I can't bring myself to bet against my boy though

I'm waiting on that -3.5 line myself, no way in hell I'm paying the current juice on TJ.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Buddens. People also said Dodson was a different matchup then Mayday. Seriously, u guys think Lineker will just do nothing?

Let me explain what I'm trying to get across. Cruz, TJ, and Cain(RIP) were all IMO rightful favorites. But IMO we need to be careful here. Talk of their opposition being bums is NOT helpful!!

The TJ Limeker fight is 3 rounds. Lineker has now proven he can pressure for 3 rounds. Can u not even envision a fight where most think TJ wins. But the judges give it to Lineker because he pushes forward and maybe busts TJ up a bit.

Sorry, it just gets me a bit to see such confidence in what seem like dangerous match ups for heavy favorites. I am just trying to help.

Also, I apologize again for saying whatever. We have a guy posting in here calling guys s and he gets less grief. A bit weird.

He was a different match up than Mayday and it played out much differently lol not saying hes not going to do anything. Hes very good at what he does. I get your beef with anyone saying hes a bum, I just don't see the one dimensional approach working against the best of the best (Cruz & TJ) and def dont see this playing out the Dodson fight. That dude has zero cage awareness, takedown abilities, and basically attacked from the left side only all fight and still kept it very close.

Lineker is going to push forward but see a fight like McCall on what someone who combines speed with angles can do here as far as consistently avoiding one dimensional pressure. And thats McCall who, quite frankly, even the best version of would get easily dismantled by present day TJ.

 

[SBJJ]

He was a different match up than Mayday and it played out much differently lol not saying hes not going to do anything. Hes very good at what he does. I get your beef with anyone saying hes a bum, I just don't see the one dimensional approach working against the best of the best (Cruz & TJ) and def dont see this playing out the Dodson fight. That dude has zero cage awareness, takedown abilities, and basically attacked from the left side only all fight and still kept it very close.

Lineker is going to push forward but see a fight like McCall on what someone who combines speed with angles can do here as far as consistently avoiding one dimensional pressure. And thats McCall who, quite frankly, even the best version of would get easily dismantled by present day TJ.

Man. We just disagree. McCall at his best was a super tough out for anyone. Including present day TJ. Just my opinion

We will all see. My final prediction is a tough TJ win. And I can't lay -240 on what I think is a tough fight.

 

[SBJJ]

Didn't really offend me, I just think you're a good poster and capper so I found it odd to see you act seemingly out of character. Maybe I missed that part, calling Lineker a bum is pretty asinine. He has no technical advantages here imo but this is the fight game and anything can happen, I definitely think backing Lineker at 2:1 odds is completely reasonable. As a TJ fan I can't bring myself to bet against my boy though

I'm waiting on that -3.5 line myself, no way in hell I'm paying the current juice on TJ.

Yea. I just said whatever out of frustration because it seems some can't even fathom this being close. And saying this fight is different didn't make sense to me as Dodson is actually faster and better defensively.

I just think Lineker has a hard nosed gritty style that works in a 3 rounder.

 

[Oblivian]

Honestly, I'm not sure how you can't see that Dodson and TJ aren't completely different matchups. TJ uses a pretty heavy kicking game with a high volume style. Dodson is much more low volume and not much of a kicker. Also, Dillashaw has the wrestling game in his back pocket.

I understand the appeal of playing Lineker here. I just think TJ is the elite in this weight class. His game is so well rounded at this point and I think people are forgetting about his wrestling + grappling. He's got a lot of options.

 

[mkess101]

I think there's good discussion on this fight. I agree with so much of what's being said. TJ is more well rounded than Dodson. While Dodson DOES actually have a solid TD game, he really doesn't apply it that often. Where as TJ will. BUT...Dodson is faster than TJ. That speed can make up for some of the technical things he doesn't do as well as TJ does.

 

[SBJJ]

Honestly, I'm not sure how you can't see that Dodson and TJ aren't completely different matchups. TJ uses a pretty heavy kicking game with a high volume style. Dodson is much more low volume and not much of a kicker. Also, Dillashaw has the wrestling game in his back pocket.

I understand the appeal of playing Lineker here. I just think TJ is the elite in this weight class. His game is so well rounded at this point and I think people are forgetting about his wrestling + grappling. He's got a lot of options.

I'm not saying they are not different. I'm saying that saying they are different is not a good argument that TJ wins. People said Dodson was different.

Once again. IMO Lineker has a style that can win him 3 round fights against better skilled fighters.

My argument has always been saying TJ is different than Dodson, Mayday, Font, McCall does not mean Lineker can not win. This WAS the same argument used with Dodson. That Dodson was too slick, too fast. Now the argument is TJ has angles and kicks. I'm not saying TJ won't win. I'm saying just because TJ has a different style does not mean Lineker will lose

I do think if TJ mixes in wrestling he has a greater chance of an easier night

 

[SBJJ]

Look at it this way. I think a few TJ backers were also on Werdum.

Imagine if people were saying there was no way Werdum could win. Would u find that frustrating?

 

[lefontes]

TJ by decision is good bet IMO.