There were so many posts like this before the Dodson fight.
Completely different match-up...
John Dodson does not throw nearly enough volume and does not have the wrestling capabilities nor the relentlessness that Dillashaw has in the grappling department. Dodson barely scrapped by Zach Makovsky a year ago, someone that Dillashaw would piece up with ease. His footwork isn't nearly as refined as TJ's and resorted to just backing up against the cage. We have to also consider that Dodson thought he was winning that whole fight with Lineker based on the cleaner shots.
Dillashaw has watched that fight and realized that it is important to throw more and not let judges get hypnotized by Linekers aggressive movements. As mentioned by many people in the thread Dill has so many long range tools available in his arsenal. His sniper-like jab, straight punches off angles, and the occasional brillantly setup leg kicks will allow him to dominate the scoreboard. Lineker truly is very slow and rarely even throws jabs! I dont think he will even throw legkicks because of the fear of the takedown.
This leaves us with Linekers slow loopy hooks and pressure game. The only way Lineker is going to be able to close the distance is by bull-rushing forward which will leave him wide open for a take-down or counter that will stun him for a second. I know I am repeating others but Dills ground game is really good and if Lineker is careless when trying to stand up from the TD I think TJ could easily get that rear naked choke. This is why id be careful with the over 2.5. Linker just dosent have enough tools to win a decision (meaning the knockout is his path to victory) while Dillashaws back control could 100 percent put Lineker to sleep.
-245 is steep but worth it in my opinion when betting on a elite p4p fighter that has innovated MMA striking and is so skilled at every aspect of MMA. It''s possible he has the best wrestling, striking, grappling, and transitions in the enitire bantamweight division (the Cruz fight was razor close). What does Lineker bring to the table? A great chin and power. Even his pressure game hasn't evolved enough for his game to be effective at the highest level. Game planning for someone with Linekers game is wayyy easier as opposed to someone like Dillashaw and this is going to be very apparent come fight time.