UFC 207 - Nunes vs Rousey - Vegas

[lawmills2006]

No he didnt elect to stand with cerrone. He clinched him against the fence right away but cerrone disengaged after about 30 secs. Cerrone then took him down a short while later. The fight didnt last long enough to say for sure brazilian cowboys gameplan but i think clinching immediately is a tell tale sign. Cowboy has only stood with burns for obvious reasons and hallmann cos he couldnt get hallmann down but there was plenty of clinching and attempts to get hallmann down. Cowboy is going to try and cage hug means i can almost guarantee it. Im hoping tho he feels a true ww's strength flops trying to get means down so just elects to stand with him.

Means was winning the standup against brown until he caught that elbow and subsequently shot. In fact means was looking damn good until then he hurt brown twice.

Mmm, didn't after he clinch throw some decent kicks and crack Cerrone with a decent straight? My fight pass isn't loading that fight so I can't rematch at present. Also, I Brown dropped Means wobbled means before he cracked him with that last elbow, its a stretch to say he was winning the stand up.

My previous point was, I don't think Cowboy will be too blown away by Means stand up, but I do agree that he will look to clinche, and that makes me pause as I'm unsure how that will work out against Means, who has a straight up nasty clinch. I also wonder if he is able to get Means to the ground, whether means will get back up, I can't recall him having the best get up's (please point me to a fight that proves me wrong if not the case)

 

[EzFlyer]

I'm willing to bet DHK does something really stupid and slips on a banana peel or some shit.

I'm going to yell at my screen to keep his left hand up and he'll probably get smacked by a headkick.

I just know something stupid.

Dude , I would get middled hard if he does. And he's done it before... Crazy korean(s)...

Anything but an early saff win, plz, lol

 

[OneWarrior1]

Watched some tape from both Means and Olivera.

Means just comes forward, pressuring, trying to overwhelm you. He's doesn't keep his hands up high enough and is willing to take one to give one. I noticed Olivera has more pop to his strikes, especially his knees. I already have 4U on Means but am uneasy about it.

 

[Joseph Budden]

fwiw regarding Thatch

According to Schaub on Rogans podcast, he got that insider info from Leister Bowling that this is the most dedicated Thatch has ever been. Schaub has a lot of friends in Denver and has always mentioned in the past Thatch's biggest problem is dedication, so I think i'm gonna be on Thatch KO here

 

[Joseph Budden]

Dude wtf. I wake up and both Borg dec and Cowboy dec are under +200. I thought i'd get +300 on both of these (was def more confident in Cowboy dec being +300 though). Fucking horse shit

 

[t6p]

I honestly think Nunes would be gassed to hell in Rd 2 after the pace of Holm/Rousey in Rd 1. I think she needs to put Rousey away in Rd 1 or she's done for.

Agree and this is one of the main reasons I'm on Ronda here. I really think Nunes needs to get her out of there early, while Ronda is more than capable of finishing Nunes either before or after she gasses. And if this fight goes longer than a round, Nunes will gas.

 

[Officer_Brown]

fwiw regarding Thatch

According to Schaub on Rogans podcast, he got that insider info from Leister Bowling that this is the most dedicated Thatch has ever been. Schaub has a lot of friends in Denver and has always mentioned in the past Thatch's biggest problem is dedication, so I think i'm gonna be on Thatch KO here

Confidence increase thatcher

 

[mkess101]

Dude wtf. I wake up and both Borg dec and Cowboy dec are under +200. I thought i'd get +300 on both of these (was def more confident in Cowboy dec being +300 though). Fucking horse shit

Not surprised about Borg at all. His ML got pounded pretty good from the open so not a shock his dec line isn't great either.

 

[mkess101]

fwiw regarding Thatch

According to Schaub on Rogans podcast, he got that insider info from Leister Bowling that this is the most dedicated Thatch has ever been. Schaub has a lot of friends in Denver and has always mentioned in the past Thatch's biggest problem is dedication, so I think i'm gonna be on Thatch KO here

Doesn't Thatch train with Magny? How the F can he have such shit grappling and cardio with a guy like that in his camp?

Niko's striking does look pretty weak though, maybe I'll wait for Thatch KO too. I have Niko small at +250, I could get middled with a Thatch dec but willing to take that risk since I only have .5u on Niko anyway.

 

[lawmills2006]

Jack Slack seems to be edging towards Rousey, I don't like picking against Slack.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Not surprised about Borg at all. His ML got pounded pretty good from the open so not a shock his dec line isn't great either.

Yeah since Borg has flipped into the favorite that one is a lot less surprising. Just praying it gets back into +2xx at this point or I might just play Smolka ml. But Cowboy dec under +2xx.......thats just bullshit.

 

[mkess101]

Agree and this is one of the main reasons I'm on Ronda here. I really think Nunes needs to get her out of there early, while Ronda is more than capable of finishing Nunes either before or after she gasses. And if this fight goes longer than a round, Nunes will gas.

2 rounds imo and then things start to get pretty dicey for Nunes depending on pace. I can't see it going past 2 anyway, one way or the other.

 

[Sham5916910]

Mmm, didn't after he clinch throw some decent kicks and crack Cerrone with a decent straight? My fight pass isn't loading that fight so I can't rematch at present. Also, I Brown dropped Means wobbled means before he cracked him with that last elbow, its a stretch to say he was winning the stand up.

My previous point was, I don't think Cowboy will be too blown away by Means stand up, but I do agree that he will look to clinche, and that makes me pause as I'm unsure how that will work out against Means, who has a straight up nasty clinch. I also wonder if he is able to get Means to the ground, whether means will get back up, I can't recall him having the best get up's (please point me to a fight that proves me wrong if not the case)

He landed a nice long right hand but there was far too little standup to gauge how he would have fared standing with cerrone. Cerrone starts really slow too.

Rewatch means brown if you havent. Means was winning that round imo.

Means has excellent get ups. Cowboy will probably land a takedown as means tdd is not great but his get ups are. See magny brown homasi and howard fights. I really think cowboy is loose positionally. If he tries to take means' back on the mat i can definitely see him ending up on the bottom where he is very weak.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Doesn't Thatch train with Magny? How the F can he have such shit grappling and cardio with a guy like that in his camp?

Niko's striking does look pretty weak though, maybe I'll wait for Thatch KO too. I have Niko small at +250, I could get middled with a Thatch dec but willing to take that risk since I only have .5u on Niko anyway.

Yeah I think it all goes back to the dedication thing. Schaub has said in the past Thatch is an absolute monster in the gym but he basically just does what he wants when he wants.

 

[mkess101]

Yeah since Borg has flipped into the favorite that one is a lot less surprising. Just praying it gets back into +2xx at this point or I might just play Smolka ml. But Cowboy dec under +2xx.......thats just bullshit.

People saw how he put Brooks on his back and controlled him and it's the freshest memory they have of Cowboy. They see Means as the better striker (rightfully so imo) and that Cowboy's best shot is to take Means down and control him.

I think the biggest factor is gonna be size in this one honestly. Means is a naturally bigger guy than I think anyone Cowboy has fought. I think Cowboy struggles to hold Means on the cage or take him down, and Means gets the better of it standing.

That said, I'm not super confident at all and given that I can't watch this card and thus no live bet, I'm really wary of being exposed either way for too much $.

 

[Sham5916910]

Watched some tape from both Means and Olivera.

Means just comes forward, pressuring, trying to overwhelm you. He's doesn't keep his hands up high enough and is willing to take one to give one. I noticed Olivera has more pop to his strikes, especially his knees. I already have 4U on Means but am uneasy about it.

Cowboys hands are even lower. Means has proven he has a solid chin cowboy hasnt as he only elects to strike with completely inferior strikers. Means has nasty power. Yeah not the pop i know where you are going but win or lose he has hurt his last 8 opponents. His one punch ko of howard says otherwise too. He rung matt browns bell too and he has an iron jaw (well not sure whats left of it after cerrone). He also sparked pete spratt. Yeah i know spratt was old but he had only ever been stopped once before by strikes in 50 fights means is the proven harder hitter. This is cowboys first genuine ww opponent besides cerrone. So i really dont think his normal bullying tactic is going to work. If hes forced to duke it out on the feet his chins getting cracked. Watch the hallmann fight he throws really wild and when he throws he has typical tall man chin high syndrome. Not a good look against means who uses 8 limbs like few others.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Regarding Cowboy, the dude has been training for only a couple of years and imo clearly improves between fights. Hes also much more athletic than Means. Just something to keep in mind

 

[mkess101]

Yeah I think it all goes back to the dedication thing. Schaub has said in the past Thatch is an absolute monster in the gym but he basically just does what he wants when he wants.

That's why he might win this fight, but without a complete attitude overhaul he'll never do much in the sport (assuming what Schaub says is true). Magny loses and he gets in the gym immediately and works even harder to improve, fix holes, etc. Thatch should have seen that fight with Bendo as his wake up call. "Hey bro, you're not as good as you thought. Or as everyone has been telling you that you are. You have gaping holes in your game. Fix them."

But you can't force guys to have that fire. If he doesn't have it, he'll probably show glimpses of top tier talent mixed with uninspiring performances until he's cut.

 

[Sham5916910]

Watched some tape from both Means and Olivera.

Means just comes forward, pressuring, trying to overwhelm you. He's doesn't keep his hands up high enough and is willing to take one to give one. I noticed Olivera has more pop to his strikes, especially his knees. I already have 4U on Means but am uneasy about it.

People saw how he put Brooks on his back and controlled him and it's the freshest memory they have of Cowboy. They see Means as the better striker (rightfully so imo) and that Cowboy's best shot is to take Means down and control him.

I think the biggest factor is gonna be size in this one honestly. Means is a naturally bigger guy than I think anyone Cowboy has fought. I think Cowboy struggles to hold Means on the cage or take him down, and Means gets the better of it standing.

That said, I'm not super confident at all and given that I can't watch this card and thus no live bet, I'm really wary of being exposed either way for too much $.

Yeah people see a win over brooks but he came in well over weight and was 2 0 down going into r3 when brooks capitulated due to the rib break. He only had any joy getting brooks down from r2 when his rib had gone but could only keep him down in r3 when as i say it seemed like brooks had folded mentally.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Yeah people see a win over brooks but he came in well over weight and was 2 0 down going into r3 when brooks capitulated due to the rib break. He only had any joy getting brooks down from r2 when his rib had gone but could only keep him down in r3 when as i say it seemed like brooks had folded mentally.

I see you always saying he was down 2-0, but I vehemently disagree. Cowboy won at least one of those rounds, maybe both imo