UFC 205 - Conor vs Alvarez - NY

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Joseph Budden said:
Ellenberger?! Thats a big statement. Ellenberger has a big right hand and thats it (ok apparently a nice switch kick to the body too). Plus hes orthodox. Things that Cerrone struggles with that Kelvin brings to the table: Southpaw, nonstop aggression, ability to hit takedowns, great boxing on the inside and an ability to get there intelligently, very hard left kick to the body.
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LOFL!!! I meant Story
 
i think the southpaw thing is overrated. He fought elite southpaws. I disagree Kelvin is non stop pressure. I think his takedowns are WAY overrated and I see VERY little chance he keeps him down if he gets any. I actually feel confident Cerrone will win the wrestling/grappling. AND THIS IS THE BIG ONE!! I think Kelvins boxing is WAY overrated. His fundamentals are plain bad. He leaves himself extremely open and his chin is ok but not great.
 
SBJJ said:
LOFL!!! I meant Story
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I was on Cerrone in that one and it went as expected. Story had his moments, but hes not explosive enough, diverse enough, hit hard enough, and he doesn't have many ways of getting inside where he wants to be. I think at this stage Kelvin has all of those things that stopped Story from continuing his early success. An X factor I seriously consider too, is the Story fight gave Kings MMA a blueprint for what Cerrone will do here. Hes done it before with similar guys (talking mainly about countering, keeping center, straight knees when guys step straight in, reactive tds) so its safe to assume he'll try it here and I can trust Kings MMA to be ready for that.

I do love WW Cerrone, won't be surprised if he wins, but I think this is a coinflip.
 
But hey, just my opinion.

Also have to like Cerrone mentally here. He seems confident as hell and his fights show it.
 
Joseph Budden said:
I was on Cerrone in that one and it went as expected. Story had his moments, but hes not explosive enough, diverse enough, hit hard enough, and he doesn't have many ways of getting inside where he wants to be. I think at this stage Kelvin has all of those things that stopped Story from continuing his early success. An X factor I seriously consider too, is the Story fight gave Kings MMA a blueprint for what Cerrone will do here. Hes done it before with similar guys (talking mainly about countering, keeping center, straight knees when guys step straight in, reactive tds) so its safe to assume he'll try it here and I can trust Kings MMA to be ready for that.

I do love WW Cerrone, won't be surprised if he wins, but I think this is a coinflip.
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Man. I just disagree. No biggie.

Seriously though, I was in Vegas and was gonna bet a mint on Hendricks against Kelvin. Then I saw the weigh ins and ended up with a good chunk on Kelvin. But Kelvin was NOT impressive at all.

I sincerely believe that Hendricks is so shot and that was a factor in WB just blasting him out. The guy is 100% DONE. Yet he still gave Kelvin trouble. I'm telling u. Just my opinion. But I think Kelvin is overrated at this point.
 
SBJJ said:
i think the southpaw thing is overrated. He fought elite southpaws. I disagree Kelvin is non stop pressure. I think Kelvins boxing is WAY overrated. His fundamentals are plain bad. chin is ok but not great.
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Fair points but these I don't get. You don't think Kelvin is elite? Whether you think Hendricks is shot or not, he looked damned good. He took the WW champion to a split when he was in the hospital a few days earlier. Only fight where he didn't really impress me much was vs Magny, seemed off that night.

I have to watch tape, but I also can't remember Kelvin ever not coming forward. Feels like its been his bread and butter to be the aggressor his entire career.

Can agree his defense isn't the best, but I think as a swarming boxer hes a tough dude to deal with. But hard to say much on this one, want to watch some fights.

Has Kelvin ever even been rocked? lol dudes chin has been reliable so far, but its Cerrone so who knows. Safe to say Donald can hurt anyone regardless
 
SBJJ said:
Man. I just disagree. No biggie.

Seriously though, I was in Vegas and was gonna bet a mint on Hendricks against Kelvin. Then I saw the weigh ins and ended up with a good chunk on Kelvin. But Kelvin was NOT impressive at all.

I sincerely believe that Hendricks is so shot and that was a factor in WB just blasting him out. The guy is 100% DONE. Yet he still gave Kelvin trouble. I'm telling u. Just my opinion. But I think Kelvin is overrated at this point.
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yeah definitely difference in opinion on a lot of things. Maybe i'm naive, but I believe Hendricks was genuine when he said having zero sparring partners like WB was the biggest factor. But these weight cuts are definitely killing his body.
 
Joseph Budden said:
yeah definitely difference in opinion on a lot of things. Maybe i'm naive, but I believe Hendricks was genuine when he said having zero sparring partners like WB was the biggest factor. But these weight cuts are definitely killing his body.
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I'm a huge WB fan. Have been awhile. But what he did to Johnny was more Johnny than him IMO now.

That being said. I like WB still against everyone but maybe Maia
 
Honestly. I might not be giving Kelvins chin the credit it deserves. But shit. Story & Cote have solid fucking beards. And cowboy seemed to hurt both with damn near every shot h was landing
 
Can't wait for 50 pages of discussion on just the Eddie vs Conor fight.
 
SBJJ said:
Honestly. I might not be giving Kelvins chin the credit it deserves. But shit. Story & Cote have solid fucking beards. And cowboy seemed to hurt both with damn near every shot h was landing
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So much this. I think we can say now that Cerrone is a guy who has benefited significantly from moving up a weight class in a lot of areas, but his power might be the area where the gains have been the most drastic.

Cote and Story don't have good chins, they have ELITE chins in that division. Before Cerrone, those 2 combined for 59 pro fights. And had ZERO losses due to stoppage by strikes. (The one tko loss was Cote's non-contact knee injury vs Silva). Cote was fighting much of his career at 185 and even a fight at 205 vs the champ at the time too.

Just think about that: 59 fights, no actual KO/TKO losses and Cerrone just straight up blows both of them up with strikes and finishes. I think Cerrone might have straight up scary power at WW. It's not like he didn't have good pop at 155 but seems like he just hits like a truck now.

Kelvin will be an interesting matchup. He'll bounce around and move in and out a lot. He won't want to be at kicking range but I highly doubt he wants a brawl in the pocket either. And I can't see him wanting to mess around on the mat with Cerrone. Kelvin is a good grappler, but seeing how Magny reversed him multiple times and really outgrappled him, messing around with Cerrone there would be a bad idea. So Kelvin needs basically a sparring match. I don't even think the clinch is a great spot for him.

Can Kelvin win? Yeah, he can. He's a very good WW and his style (assuming he uses really good fight IQ) could potentially give Cerrone issues. But Cerrone just has so many more ways to win the fight. I don't think his price is too expensive at all.
 
Brick Top said:
Can't wait for 50 pages of discussion on just the Eddie vs Conor fight.
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Lol. I will probably not even bet that fight. I love Conor. I do want him to win just for the potential future big fights. But I think the line is bout right.
 
Well to start it off i think Alvarez is going to use the same strategy he used against Pettis. close distance, push against the cage and take him down. Conor with distance is very, very good. I dont know if Eddie would even try to sub Conor, just try to keep him pressed against the fence, take him down and hold him there and gnp. Wear him down. Going to be an interesting fight for sure. Right now I am leaning towards Alvarez, but we got a ways to go before the fight.
 
Just put down a huge bet on McGregor...

Alvarez is going to get massacred on the feet. He will get counter-KOed quickly if he tries to pressure, he will get eaten alive at karate distance if he doesn't. He won't be able to keep McGregor down if he does manage to get him there. I just don't see how he's gonna win other than very close decision. I have full faith in post-wake up call McGregor to take this.

Also hit Romero big. Weidman goes way downhill without the threat of grappling. I'm pretty sure Romero should be the favorite here.
 
Agree with the guys on Cerrone here. I actually agree that KG didn't look that great against Hendricks considering how bad Hendricks looked, and fight before that he was 3 rounds in the hole against Magny.

Cerrone has looked nothing short of spectacular at WW destroying two guys with granite chins.
 
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On the Cerrone train as well, WW Cowboy is a beast, I thought Cote and Story had styles to give him trouble but he just destroyed them.

I'm surprised some of you are so confident in WB, Woodley's always been underrated and may be the best wrestler he's fought next to a shot Hendricks. I love WB and would take him as a slight fav, but wouldn't trust him in a big parlay. Gonna let the odds dictate my bet on this one
 
Sadistics said:
On the Cerrone train as well, WW Cowboy is a beast, I thought Cote and Story had styles to give him trouble but he just destroyed them.

I'm surprised some of you are so confident in WB, Woodley's always been underrated and may be the best wrestler he's fought next to a shot Hendricks. I love WB and would take him as a slight fav, but wouldn't trust him in a big parlay. Gonna let the odds dictate my bet on this one
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Put Woodley on the back foot and he's terrible. Yeah he has a punchers chance of course but i really like WB here. Woodley can't wrestlefuck for 5 rounds i don't think his cardio holds up.
 
I'm on cerrone train too. More technical then kelvin and better everywhere. The only way I see kelvin winning is by decision via forward aggression, higher output, and wrestlefuck on top
 
betsafe have mcgoat at 1.83 (-120) atm. seeing conor's odds shorten pre fight for every ufc fight he's had bar his debut and the aldo fight. I think it's a decent trade.
 
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