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UFC 203 - Stipe vs Overeem - Cleveland

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McBride missed weight, came in 158. Went and sat on the floor in the rehydration area straight after, potentially due to feeling weak. Liking Lentz itd a little more now.

After Chad knocked Gouti's head clean off after missing weight I'm avoiding Lentz.
 
Eye, Tavares, CB, Rivera dec +4400. Yes please! Putting 0.25 unit on that. Can definitely see that happening.
I have the same exact play, but Gall sub instead of Rivera DEC. Here's to hoping we both hit!
 
After Chad knocked Gouti's head clean off after missing weight I'm avoiding Lentz.

I dunno, I wouldn't take too much out of that Laprise fight in regards to this. Odds are flipped the other way for one, Laprise was a big favourite over Gouti and is a solid fighter. Here, Lentz is a big favourite, a super tough fighter with a style difficult to counter and he sticks to his gameplan very well. Tough to finish and proven himself to the point where although not elite, he's legit and one of the best in the game at grinding someone out.

All of McBrides wins have been by submission which suggests he's going to engage in grappling Lentz and probably accept getting taken down (not that he could likely stop it) in order to either attack off of his back or try to sweep Lentz. Not a great strategy given in 11 years Lentz has only been submitted by Oliveria and a guy much bigger than him 10 years ago, despite facing plenty of legit black belts, whereas with McBrides record of all the people he's beaten only 3 have winning records.

Reckon he dominates McBride and he deserves to be the biggest favourite on the card. I'd play the -3.5 if they had that line in the UK, instead I'll either use him with someone in a parlay, play him ITD or more likely, do both.
 
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Gall could be nervous, so he could come in too aggressive, so he could get ko'd by a 0-0 guy with zero striking background, it could very well happen in the first round. The Bisping/Rockhold fight clearly created a butterfly ripple in time/space continuum that has made dogs bark harder than usual and we should include that fact if we want to cap fights accurately.

This fight is well beyond the realms of facts and accurate capping. I just created a nice little storyline to convince myself to actually bet anything at all on it.

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Did Werdum look soft again? Seems like it.
 
Eye looks in great shape. Beeeautiful, champ.

Calderwood and Werdum looked horrible.
 
Reduced is coming out. Punk is +400 on 5d
Might have to stab that for a .5U or a little more. I have this feeling that Punk is playing coy with his skills a bit.

Maybe its the wrestling fan in me but I just have a feeling that he will be a lot more prepared than his open workouts and documentary have lead us to believe.
 
I see Werdum is finally waking up from that nap that Stipe put him in.
 
Tempted by a bet on Mr. Rousey. Werdum has never looked this bad.
 
Yeah Calderwood didn't look great.
 
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