UFC 203 - Stipe vs Overeem - Cleveland

[Brick Top]

Round robin leans:

Andrade by stoppage
Rivera by decision
Werdum by decision +225
Gall by KO/TKO +275

Hopefully will get nice odds on the first two

Yo Joe give me your leans brah

 

[AffectEffect]

Clips from Gonzales last fight are linked on his twitter.

Looks like he was knocked down in the first, comes back and gets a ko in second, his opponent looked pretty winded. It is just highlights, but looks like a similar performances to what he did on TUF.

Kid is huge for the weight class, I wonder if that will affect the line...

 

[Joseph Budden]

Yo Joe give me your leans brah

For round robin? Thinking Reem, Gall KO, o2.5 Faber vs Riv, Eye, Lentz dec or Lentz -3.5, Tavares or Tavares dec, McCall dec, Spencer dec or o2.5, CB, and Dober dec

 

[Sham5916910]

Disagree man. Herm fought no one of UFC calibur, and you can definitely make smart bets if you watch tape. Just have to take into account the level of opposition, and if you know what you're looking at you can interpret how the person's skillset will fare against their UFC opposition. I've won plenty of bets with newcomers involved. Lots of times it has the best value since bookies aren't sure how to price things. Herm by dec at +270 was a steal when I saw it is the most likely outcome for sure.

Most of Gonzalez' footage is from TUF so that scares me, but seeing him vs Welsh and Lloveras definitely gives me a solid enough read to interpret how this fight can go.

He beat vemola but yeah you are right outside of vem no one just checked his record. Each to their own tho just not my style of betting. Last time i tried it ferg burnt me as i hedged when he was almost out.

 

[Joseph Budden]

He beat vemola but yeah you are right outside of vem no one just checked his record. Each to their own tho just not my style of betting. Last time i tried it ferg burnt me as i hedged when he was almost out.

With Lando? Yeah man that was a tough one. Every scenario is different. With Askham - Herm it was a little easier since Askham is a pretty one note fighter, so just had to gauge how his limited tools would fair against Jack's style. Plus the lines brought great value. Super juiced Ferg vs one of the best prospects in the world was bound to bring scares, was telling people that before the fight lol

 

[Brick Top]

With Lando? Yeah man that was a tough one. Every scenario is different. With Askham - Herm it was a little easier since Askham is a pretty one note fighter, so just had to gauge how his limited tools would fair against Jack's style. Plus the lines brought great value. Super juiced Ferg vs one of the best prospects in the world was bound to bring scares, was telling people that before the fight lol

There is definitely space for betting on debuts. Shevchenko to beat Kaufman in her debut at like +170 or something was a complete steal. A decorated kickboxer (58-2 record) and Muay Thai fighter against a meh gatekeeper

 

[Brick Top]

For round robin? Thinking Reem, Gall KO, o2.5 Faber vs Riv, Eye, Lentz dec or Lentz -3.5, Tavares or Tavares dec, McCall dec, Spencer dec or o2.5, CB, and Dober dec

Nice I think the decision prop might be good on this card lots of low weight fights

 

[Joseph Budden]

There is definitely space for betting on debuts. Shevchenko to beat Kaufman in her debut at like +170 or something was a complete steal

Yeah that was another one I got in on. Teymur vs Novelli another good recent example, especially in retrospect. Like I said, as long as you increase your MMA knowledge through training and/or articles and videos with technical analysis, put some solid thought into interpreting the styles clash, there will always be spots with value that involves noobs.

 

[LEMONZEST]

oh man lol Karyn Bryant asking Overeem about horse meat in that interview. She just went way up in my books!

 

[Joseph Budden]

Nice I think the decision prop might be good on this card lots of low weight fights

Yeah i'll be keeping an eye on those props. Think we might get good prices since the o2.5s aren't juiced on many fights

 

[michi972]

Thinking of Mccal+Stipe+Andrade

 

[Sham5916910]

Thinking of Mccal+Stipe+Andrade

Why parlay them? Three fights that could go either way as the odds suggest. I dont get why you would parlay fighters around evens. Just play them straight theres value there. The parlays unlikely to hit. For a flyer why not but if thats your main bet i think its a terrible bet.

 

[michi972]

Well, too small win on single if I could bet 100$ on event i would play bloody singles.
Well, never trusted Overeem, never trusted Calderwood and I also think their opponents are better.Mccall more experienced, good odds, faced better competition.

 

[Card]

I'm going to push the pace and if i hurt him, I'll go for the finish, it's been hard to get fights, people don't want it, and I didn't want to fight in Brazil again, so I got Faber

 

[Card]

Caraway didn't want to accept the fight, he's going to try to wrestle me, I'm going to work my hands, it's going to be a high intensity fight

 

[Card]

I defend his strengths and attack his weaknesses, he's try to wrestle me, I spar with Edgar, Marlon, Munoz, Wade, boxing gyms, I had a great training camp, I can beat Dillashaw

 

[Card]

To be honest I think I do have my hands full, but at the end of the contest, round 4, round 5, I will be crowned the HW champ

 

[Card]

I have a good strategy, a little different from last time, I can take him down and finish him, but last time I beat him in stand up

 

[Card]

Overeem has flaws, he hasn't faced someone like me yet

 

[Brick Top]

Backing out of my McCall lean. He said in an interview that with his injuries he's surprised he's even made it through camp and didn't even expect to.