UFC 203 - Stipe vs Overeem - Cleveland

[fightfan2355]

money coming in on punk - any thoughts?

Confirmation that the fix is in because today he looked like the doctor was about to come in and deliver some bad news.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Today's props recap

Gall sub +145
Yancy NSC -165
Yancy sub +700
CB NSC -173
Jojo R3 +2150
McBride sub +1015 (Honestly a little shot in a dark because I have seen absolutely zero tape, but every single one of his wins is by sub)



Then this little guy

$24 for $1078

Gall SUB
Eye DEC
Tavares DEC
CB DEC

 

[wack3d]

Hail Mary Rivera dec + Andrade dec + Spencer dec + eye dec + Tavares dec +22500 i dont think its as unlikely as the odds suggest

 

[mkess101]

Gall sub +145.

He seems like the type of guy that even if he gets you hurt on the feet, he's gonna follow/take you to the ground and try to choke you out. FML if he straight up puts Punk to sleep on the feet

Flame if you want, but at least I'm not paying any juice

I hit it at +120, adding now, good catch. He's a legit grappling ace and you're right, does look to take the back and look for the sub.

 

[fightfan2355]

Can't believe Overeem sub is +1500.

 

[NinjaCat456]

Can't believe Overeem sub is +1500.

Been 7 years since he subbed anyone.

Looking at Overeem's record I notice he's got one submission through strikes (knees to the body), would that still come in with the bookies?

 

[Joseph Budden]

Can't believe Overeem sub is +1500.

Not bad. Posted this morning about how I like Reem more the more I think about it, and part of that is because Stipe shoots from the outside. A.) Who has ever taken Reem down with a double leg? B.) That gullitione from the Pride days has a chance to make its return if Stipe tries

 

[mkess101]

Not bad. Posted this morning about how I like Reem more the more I think about it, and part of that is because Stipe shoots from the outside. A.) Who has ever taken Reem down with a double leg? B.) That gullitione from the Pride days has a chance to make its return if Stipe tries

Agree there's a chance, and +1500 has a little value, but the thing about Stipe shooting from the outside is that he sets it up very well with his striking. Yeah, if you telegraph the shot against Reem it's a bad idea. but Stipe lands a bunch of punches first from the outside, gets your head used to that level and then mixes in the TD. He's not GSP, but that's the blueprint.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Agree there's a chance, and +1500 has a little value, but the thing about Stipe shooting from the outside is that he sets it up very well with his striking. Yeah, if you telegraph the shot against Reem it's a bad idea. but Stipe lands a bunch of punches first from the outside, gets your head used to that level and then mixes in the TD. He's not GSP, but that's the blueprint.

It's easily conceivable to me he shoots an ill advised takedown at some point cause Reem is too mobile and too good a striker to get jabbed and feinted into double legs ala Mark Hunt

 

[mkess101]

It's easily conceivable to me he shoots an ill advised takedown at some point cause Reem is too mobile and too good a striker to get jabbed and feinted into double legs ala Mark Hunt

Maybe. I don't think Reem is super mobile anymore though. If you watch the Arlovski fight, Reem is actually more stationary than what I originally thought. He really seems content to stand his ground and counter now. He moves okay, I don't want to make it sound like he's some sort of statue out there, but Stipe certainly moves more quickly now and has faster hands. Will definitely be interesting to see if Stipe has a lot of success with his jab early. That could definitely determine the fight.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Overeem by swickotine. It'll be over before you even know it

 

[Joseph Budden]

Maybe. I don't think Reem is super mobile anymore though. If you watch the Arlovski fight, Reem is actually more stationary than what I originally thought. He really seems content to stand his ground and counter now. He moves okay, I don't want to make it sound like he's some sort of statue out there, but Stipe certainly moves more quickly now and has faster hands. Will definitely be interesting to see if Stipe has a lot of success with his jab early. That could definitely determine the fight.

Reem isn't going to utilize energy for no reason, he's become much smarter about that and the most obvious improvement of Jackson-Wink Reem, but he still moves reasonably fast and evades quickly. You can see the evading skills vs JDS and you can see how athletically he still moves, relative to HW Division, vs Nelson with all of the explosive offense he used. AA got sonned, Reem was able to just feint and karate kid kick him. While Stipe probably moves faster in general, I think I can rely on Reems raised fight IQ and evading abilities to help him control the fight

I really doubt the jab works at all for Stipe here, win or lose. He's going to have to step in with combos. If he's content to flick jabs and feint them, he's just going to get kicked I think

 

[mkess101]

Reem isn't going to utilize energy for no reason, he's become much smarter about that and the most obvious improvement of Jackson-Wink Reem, but he still moves reasonably fast and evades quickly. You can see the evading skills vs JDS and you can see how athletically he still moves, relative to HW Division, vs Nelson with all of the explosive offense he used. AA got sonned, Reem was able to just feint and karate kid kick him. While Stipe probably moves faster in general, I think I can rely on Reems raised fight IQ and evading abilities to help him control the fight

I really doubt the jab works at all for Stipe here, win or lose. He's going to have to step in with combos. If he's content to flick jabs and feint them, he's just going to get kicked I think

Yeah it can't just be the jab for Stipe. But for him it all works off the jab. Once he lands a few, that's when he mixes in his combos AND his level changes. If Stipe is having zero success at all landing that jab early and it goes past rd 1, I will be looking to live bet Reem. If Stipe is landing it at all I'll be looking at his LB lines as that's probably going to lead to better things for him. Just sort of how I see it.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Reem isn't going to utilize energy for no reason, he's become much smarter about that and the most obvious improvement of Jackson-Wink Reem, but he still moves reasonably fast and evades quickly. You can see the evading skills vs JDS and you can see how athletically he still moves, relative to HW Division, vs Nelson with all of the explosive offense he used. AA got sonned, Reem was able to just feint and karate kid kick him. While Stipe probably moves faster in general, I think I can rely on Reems raised fight IQ and evading abilities to help him control the fight

I really doubt the jab works at all for Stipe here, win or lose. He's going to have to step in with combos. If he's content to flick jabs and feint them, he's just going to get kicked I think

lmao that's funny. I actually say "daddied" or however the f you wanna spell it. I'm pretty sure we mean the same thing, though haha. Not exactly sure which one is politically correct lmao

 

[Joseph Budden]

Yeah it can't just be the jab for Stipe. But for him it all works off the jab. Once he lands a few, that's when he mixes in his combos AND his level changes. If Stipe is having zero success at all landing that jab early and it goes past rd 1, I will be looking to live bet Reem. If Stipe is landing it at all I'll be looking at his LB lines as that's probably going to lead to better things for him. Just sort of how I see it.

Yeah another reason I like Reem. Stipe is a traditional boxer in that regard (really in every way) and I doubt Reem doesn't have an answer for it. Especially with his skills at kicking range.

 

[SBJJ]

Maybe. I don't think Reem is super mobile anymore though. If you watch the Arlovski fight, Reem is actually more stationary than what I originally thought. He really seems content to stand his ground and counter now. He moves okay, I don't want to make it sound like he's some sort of statue out there, but Stipe certainly moves more quickly now and has faster hands. Will definitely be interesting to see if Stipe has a lot of success with his jab early. That could definitely determine the fight.

BINGO!! I've watched the AA fight 3 times recently and I am so perplexed at how most saw it. Reem was NOT mobile. AA actually was winning some exchanges. And Reem literally ran in a few times almost the same way Werdum did against Stipe. I personally thought that was the worst Reem has looked in awhile. And he also seemed considerably weaker than usual.

Not saying I'm ultra confident(to those that seem to get so fired up when someone is confident). But I do see value on Stipe.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

I'm probably just going to live bet the main event. I feel that HW 5 rounders that go past the 1st are potential gold mines

I can't fault anyone for betting either side if they have a semi-strong+ lean, though

 

[Joseph Budden]

BINGO!! I've watched the AA fight 3 times recently and I am so perplexed at how most saw it. Reem was NOT mobile. AA actually was winning some exchanges. And Reem literally ran in a few times almost the same way Werdum did against Stipe. I personally thought that was the worst Reem has looked in awhile. And he also seemed considerably weaker than usual.

Not saying I'm ultra confident(to those that seem to get so fired up when someone is confident). But I do see value on Stipe.

I didn't mean mobile as in faster, just that he has the footwork to evade when he has to but that's my fault. You watched the AA fight three times so I'll trust you in that lol but I expect him to fight very similar to the JDS fight. Reem seemed dismissive of AA before that fight, while he knew JDS was a bad dude, has stated in interviews he knows his hands are full with Stipe, and he views this as the crowning moment of his career. No doubt in my mind he will have a mistake-free centric game plan where he's patient in creating offensive openings.

 

[SBJJ]

I have always though and still think there was something seriously wrong with JDS that fight. I had decent money on Reem that fight. But I saw what I saw. That JDS was a very unmotivated out of shape fighter. And I sincerely believe he was not there that fight.

If not for that fight. I believe Stipe would be -180 or higher here.

Not saying I'm right. But I believe my eyes on what I saw that fight. Reem fought well, but that was a fucked up JDS in there.

 

[SBJJ]

Also. I'd lay serious cash on JDS in a rematch assuming he's in shape.