UFC 203 - Stipe vs Overeem - Cleveland

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My early insight on this card :

Not sure about Reem/Stipe yet, but one thing I'm confident in is over 1.5 rounds or round 2 to start. I like round 2 to start at -175 on 5d. Also like round 3 to start, but not as confident as round 2 to start.

I like Gall ITD or Gall by TKO/KO. Punk has a little ju jitsu background but nothing to talk about. With the said I see Gall winning this by Punks biggest weakness, stand up and wrestling. I can see Gall getting the TKO stoppage most likely. I will also be betting Gall by decision. There is a small chance Punk can take this to decision if he does any stalling/holding and clinch work against the fence. At +795 for a Gall decision I must take a small stab at it. Another thing I'm taking a small stab at is Gall in round 2 & 3, +525 and +1025 on 5D.

I got Werdum winning this by decision again in a repeat of the first fight.

I have a little parlay of Reem/Stipe to start round 2, Werdum by decision and Gall ITD that I'm confident in.

I also threw out a parlay of Reem/Stipe to start round 2, Werdum by decision and Gall by decision just for a little fun. If that one hits that's some big $$ as Gall by decision is +795 on 5d as noted above.
 
WImsOIm.jpg
 
BigNick100 said:
Not sure about Reem/Stipe yet, but one thing I'm confident in is over 1.5 rounds or round 2 to start. I like round 2 to start at -175 on 5d. Also like round 3 to start, but not as confident as round 2 to start.
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I wouldn't be confident in a HW fight going over 1.5 especially when two talented strikers with good power are involved. Although I do see where you are coming from.
 
vkram said:
I wouldn't be confident in a HW fight going over 1.5 especially when two talented strikers with good power are involved. Although I do see where you are coming from.
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I hear you as well, it's always a risk with HW's. Overeem has been very patience in his last few fights, he seems to take the first round to feel out his opponents tendencies. He was very cautious in the opening rounds of his fights with JDS and Nelson, who are big hitters like Stipe, if not harder hitters, and not to mention it was the same way against Andrei his last fight. Overeem hasn't finished anyone in the first round since 2014, but it's HW's so of course its possible but I'm banking on the first round being a feeling out process for both of them.
 
Not sure what I'll do in terms of Reem/Stipe, probably Reem if his odds drift a little bit to +140 or so.

With Werdum/Browne I'm thinking an auto fade of Browne. He got rekt by Cain and I think is coming back too early here. He's taken a few beatings over the last few years and though he's obviously tough I think he's getting hurt a bit more now, it's just he's got solid recovery so him getting hurt isn't necessarily going to result in him going out straight away. In the past 15 months he's had that Arlovski beating, I think Mitrione dropped him in their fight and then the Cain beatdown was barely 2 months ago. Werdum already dominated him in their first match too.

Only doubt really is how Werdum fought against Stipe, seemingly abandoning all the technique he's learnt over the last few years where he made leaps and bounds with his striking and become a solid muay thai fighter to one who runs at an opponent throwing Matt Riddle-esque punches with his chin up in the air. You'd imagine he won't do it again, but yeah still a worry he did that in the first place.

Not sure I understand the move by Browne in getting Hamilton in either. Hamilton is mostly a wrestler who displayed some improved boxing in his last fight, doesn't really replicate Werdum at all in the stand-up and I can't see what the aim is in getting him in to help with wrestling, presumably he's not going to be trying to take Werdum down.

It's HW so a bit of a potential issue given Werdum getting sparked out last fight and Travis having power, but Werdum should dominate again and I think Browne is coming back too early from a beatdown here.
 
My 2 cents on the main event:

Overeem has looked pretty good lately. His gameplanning is on point and his defense seems a lot better.
I dont lie when I say he is the most skilled HW in the world and has been for a while.
The left hook that started the TKO against JDS was a thing of beauty. Impressive timing and more impressive accuracy. After the punch you can see he was really looking for that.

STILL was in trouble against Roy Nelson (not even a gatekeeper nowadays) who decided to go for a TD. If Roy were a little smarter Overeem would have lost to him and we will be talking about him as a bum. The way he was put against the fence against JDS.. damn, he was lucky Junior did not kept throwing (even punching the gloves). You can see it from a mile that Overeem was not measuring JDS for a counter ala Glover Teixeira vs Bader. He got lucky again.
His chin and his cardio (despite the efforts of conserving energy) are far beyond Miocic.

Regarding Stipe.. he is one of the best boxers in the division. People can bring the JDS fight but Stipe won the first 2 playing in Juniors field (planting his feet and throwing). He has great footwork for a HW and he does not wing punches like a brawler: Straight punches with 4oz gloves.
With good power in his hands and a solid chin he can impose respect to anybody that steps in front of him. If not, then you get Werdumd.
The problem is that he gets tagged and his defense need some work. This is not small against a very cerebral and measured fighter in Reem who, believe you me, along with his coaches is going to study every second of Miocic fights pretty pretty good.

People like to bring home advantage. I dont think there is such thing as that. In fact most guys try to put a show for his fans and tend to make mistakes. It all comes to the athlete.

After all that I still favor Stipe but Overeem always has a chance.

I think the most likely outcome is a TKO for either one. That should happen like 80% of the time.
 
Michael McBride

http://www.michaelmcbridemma.com/bio/

-8 days short notice replacement for mairbek
-8-1 record, 7 sub finishes
-midwest cage champion
-last fight back in november with a r2 sub win
-started ji-jitsu when he young and trained wrestling at school/college
-trains/spars with ufc's johnny case





could be Mcbride @ 2.19 here ?



very hard to find any actual fight footage, mainly just vids of him and ufcs johny case discussing upcoming fights (2-3 years ago) some basic sparring but mainly an ji jitsu fighter. Glance over his record all low tier fighters guys with evenly matched records ie 8 wins and 9 losses, soon as he got to a fighter with above average win ratio to losses he lost the fight.

Lentz su or parlay fodder
 
damir hadzovic and yusuke kasuya cancelled

https://www.facebook.com/BosnianBomberMMA/

I AM NO LONGER ON THE UFC 203 CARD, BUT INSTEAD I WILL BE FIGHTING AT UFC FN 97 IN MANILA, PHILIPPINES ON OCT. 15 AGAINST THE SAME OPPONENT.
I feel bad for the fans who planned to see me in the US, and I feel bad for my opponent, and of course I am very disappointed that I do not get to fight right now when I am so ready and have been working so hard! The change of date is due to visa problems, I am approved for the visa but unfortunately because of delay I can not get my printed visa documents in time for my flight on Monday, therefor the UFC have moved the fight to another event.

Fight is still listed on ufc.com, maybe I missed it on previous post but either way that fight is off.



 
My picks.
No idea what six or seven fights I'm going to put into an accumulator bet yet tho...


14192685_10154571130562160_9014481794167508955_n.jpg
 
Ukram said:
damir hadzovic and yusuke kasuya cancelled

https://www.facebook.com/BosnianBomberMMA/

I AM NO LONGER ON THE UFC 203 CARD, BUT INSTEAD I WILL BE FIGHTING AT UFC FN 97 IN MANILA, PHILIPPINES ON OCT. 15 AGAINST THE SAME OPPONENT.
I feel bad for the fans who planned to see me in the US, and I feel bad for my opponent, and of course I am very disappointed that I do not get to fight right now when I am so ready and have been working so hard! The change of date is due to visa problems, I am approved for the visa but unfortunately because of delay I can not get my printed visa documents in time for my flight on Monday, therefor the UFC have moved the fight to another event.

Fight is still listed on ufc.com, maybe I missed it on previous post but either way that fight is off.


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Glad you posted that was just about to watch footage. Had a big lean and think odds would have been good.

Watched tavares caio footage. Lol @ me hoping to get tavares @ +100. No chance more like -200
 
Dooze said:
Not sure what I'll do in terms of Reem/Stipe, probably Reem if his odds drift a little bit to +140 or so.

With Werdum/Browne I'm thinking an auto fade of Browne. He got rekt by Cain and I think is coming back too early here. He's taken a few beatings over the last few years and though he's obviously tough I think he's getting hurt a bit more now, it's just he's got solid recovery so him getting hurt isn't necessarily going to result in him going out straight away. In the past 15 months he's had that Arlovski beating, I think Mitrione dropped him in their fight and then the Cain beatdown was barely 2 months ago. Werdum already dominated him in their first match too.

Only doubt really is how Werdum fought against Stipe, seemingly abandoning all the technique he's learnt over the last few years where he made leaps and bounds with his striking and become a solid muay thai fighter to one who runs at an opponent throwing Matt Riddle-esque punches with his chin up in the air. You'd imagine he won't do it again, but yeah still a worry he did that in the first place.

Not sure I understand the move by Browne in getting Hamilton in either. Hamilton is mostly a wrestler who displayed some improved boxing in his last fight, doesn't really replicate Werdum at all in the stand-up and I can't see what the aim is in getting him in to help with wrestling, presumably he's not going to be trying to take Werdum down.

It's HW so a bit of a potential issue given Werdum getting sparked out last fight and Travis having power, but Werdum should dominate again and I think Browne is coming back too early from a beatdown here.
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Yeah.. Travis Browne is fading material at this point. He has taken a lot of damage lately and his offense is not that good TBH.
 
Jason Gonzalez

-10-2 (4ko/6subs)
-IFS MT Tourney champ/Repect in cage champ
-MT, ji jitsu and boxing style fighter
-former tuf competitor

Few YT fights


(wait for r2,r3)


Very low end competition faced, most of the guys had 0-8 records, otherwise showed a decent sprawl but due to his long slim 6.2" frame he got taken down eventually by smaller sub par opponents, when he does defend take downs he shows some nice MT skills, mixing in knees in clinches and elbows.

Not the best match up on short notice against dober(also a MT champ) and with that powerful wrestling style.



 
uncle creepy interview



-Says its almost an easier fight but still tough compared to scroggins
-went back to his wrestling and grappling routes from 10 years ago
-was unsure his body would take it (thru the training camp) with scroggins and this fight < Red flag
-Says he has mentally lost and agrees to his criticism from ray borg but claims its fixed (mental coach)
-Last fight against linekar in Jan 2015 - so 1 year and 8 months lay off.

No strong leans but reckon its a close fight between both guys, reckon the overs hit and it goes to decision, borg could have a chance here especially if Mcalls long lay off and injuries/body giving up talk is real, still very hard to tell if mcall is telling the truth or not !
 
Man i really like mccall here but all this injury talk will stop me playing him. Didnt schuab say he cant make a fist?
 
Yup Brendan said that on his chat show, could explain why he did not want to take on that scroggins fight and just get the W money for basically making weight, then going overboard with fighters not making weight ruining fights talk, I think if you have been almost 2 years out from a fight its the easy choice especially if you can't make a fist.
 
Gall is getting hammered across all books. I think punk is having a bad weight cut
 
Really stacked card with big branded recognizable name fighters, but its hard to not like favourites right off the bat especially on the prelims

-dober- better wrestler, beaten much better competition and ufc competition)
-dollaway - better gas tank, striker and wrestler.
-yancy- better all round
-tavares- beaten larkin and more powerful striker and better well rounded fighter
-lentz -bigger wrestling and grappling edge and beaten much better ufc competition

feels like they have been paired to either excel and look good or the fighter got lucky and lost their opponent days or weeks before so just given an fill in non ufc caliber fighter. Mcall and borg being the one not so sure, mcall decision sounds likely but with that injury talk borg could excel here, prefer the overs, decision on that one either way.
 
http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/full-ufc-203-opening-betting-odds/

UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
SEPTEMBER 10, 2016
Quicken Loans Arena | Cleveland, Ohio

Main Card
Pay-per-view – 10pm ET

Heavyweight Title:

Alistair Overeem +140
Stipe Miocic -170

Over 1.5 -140
Under 1.5 +100
–

Travis Browne +190
Fabricio Werdum -270

Over 2.5 -105
Under 2.5 -135
–

CM Punk +260
Mickey Gall -380

Over 1.5 +135
Under 1.5 -175
–

Jimmie Rivera -110
Urijah Faber -130

Over 2.5 -150
Under 2.5 +110
–

Jessica Andrade -120
Joanne Calderwood -120

Over 2.5 -190
Under 2.5 +150
——————————-

Preliminary Card
FS1 – 8pm ET

Bethe Correia +110
Jessica Eye -150

Over 2.5 -260
Under 2.5 +180
–

Michael McBride +250
Nik Lentz -350

Over 2.5 -175
Under 2.5 +135
–

Caio Magalhaes +160
Brad Tavares -210

Over 1.5 -180
Under 1.5 +140
–

Ray Borg +120
Ian McCall -160

Over 2.5 -190
Under 2.5 +150
——————————-

Preliminary Card
UFC Fight Pass – 6:15pm ET

Sean Spencer +120
Yancy Medeiros -160

Over 2.5 -140
Under 2.5 +100
–

Francimar Barroso +150
C.B. Dollaway -190

Over 2.5 -155
Under 2.5 +115
–

Jason Gonzalez +140
Drew Dober -180

Over 2.5 -155
Under 2.5 +115
 
Rivera -110 :/
O2.5 is -150, tho.. I like

Andrade -120 yes, plz

I think borg +120 gets bet but idk, not betting.. o2.5 -190 isn't terrible tho...

Medeiros -160 nooo, holding off...

Dober - Gonzalez o2.5 -155?
 
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