UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz Predictions

[scottiej86]

UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz - Saturday March 5th 2016

UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz - This Episode of the show covers Predictions for the 5 main card fights on the UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz card.

Main Card
Conor McGregor vs. Nate Diaz
Holly Holm vs. Miesha Tate
Ilir Latifi vs. Gian Villante
Corey Anderson vs. Tom Lawlor
Amanda Nunes vs. Valentina Shevchenko

PRELIMINARY CARD
Siyar Bahadurzada vs. Brandon Thatch
Erick Silva vs. Nordine Taleb
Marcelo Guimaraes vs. Vitor Miranda
Darren Elkins vs. Chas Skelly
Jim Miller vs. Diego Sanchez
Jason Saggo vs. Justin Salas
Julian Erosa vs. Teruto Ishihara

 

[P0rkchop]

Conor McGregor KO Diaz in the first

 

[closetfighter]

Diaz has a concrete chin, and is nearly impossible to submit.

If Conor wins it will be via a close decision.

 

[Mac the Cat]

Conor by TKO within the last minute of the first round.

 

[wookie brawl]

If Mendes can tag Conor, Diaz will have no problem hitting him. This is not a walkover for Conor, even though Diaz might be not at his fittest. Nate's weakness is an opponent with a good kicking game, something Michael Johnson forgot about. Watch how Diaz punches, he has an odd timing, like a nano second quicker than expected - many good strikers succumbed to this. But, Conor has too many weapons. He will win if he incorporates kicks in his combos.

 

[scottiej86]

Diaz has a concrete chin, and is nearly impossible to submit.

If Conor wins it will be via a close decision.

I don't doubt he is hard to knockout, but Thomson stopped him and he has a career 6 wins by (T)KO in 31 fights, so if he can do it so can McGregor.

 

[Kelman]

I love Nate, but he got lit up like a bonfire by Benson Henderson, Josh Thomson, and Rafael dos Anjos, and McGregor is probably a better striker than all of them.

McGregor will repeat the trick of Josh Thomson. KO2.

 

[vandic]

Conor win by UD after 5 round real dog fight full of blood !

 

[Aerose91]

I think Nate will gas and Conor TKO's him in 3 or 4. He will win the distance battle with his kicks

 

[Turok2005]

Main Card
Conor McGregor vs. Nate Diaz -> Diaz 4th rd submission
Holly Holm vs. Miesha Tate -> Tate Split Decision
Ilir Latifi vs. Gian Villante -> Gian UD
Corey Anderson vs. Tom Lawlor -> Lawlor UD
Amanda Nunes vs. Valentina Shevchenko -> Nunes 3rd rd submission

 

[scottiej86]

I think Nate will gas and Conor TKO's him in 3 or 4. He will win the distance battle with his kicks

Interesting take, giving Conor both the advantage is cardio and distance. Usually Nate's strong points.

 

[Aerose91]

Interesting take, giving Conor both the advantage is cardio and distance. Usually Nate's strong points.

Conor's kicks are longer than Nate's punches so i think he'll use them liberally while cutting tons of angles. Also, full camp and peaked (Conor) vs zero camp (Nate) is a huge difference. I think Nate has a huge uphill battle to climb

 

[deviake]

This was a fun walk down memory lane.

Conor McGregor KO Diaz in the first

Conor by TKO within the last minute of the first round.

I love Nate, but he got lit up like a bonfire by Benson Henderson, Josh Thomson, and Rafael dos Anjos, and McGregor is probably a better striker than all of them.

McGregor will repeat the trick of Josh Thomson. KO2.

 

[GrandNegus]

Smallest version of this thread you could find?

 

[Kelman]

This was a fun walk down memory lane.

I've never called a fight more wrongly, or been more shamed by the result of a fight.

I have always loved the Diaz bros, but Nate wasnt even competitive with RDA or Benson, to me it made sense that he was on the downswing, was totally undertrained and underprepared for this fight, and all the momentum was with McGregor.


Here is the laundry list of retrospectively obvious factors that I stupidly overlooked:

- the importance of regular hard kicks in the wins of RDA & Benson
- Conor throws lot of flashy kicks, but he had never demonstrated that kind of solid Muay Thai leg/body-kicking game
- the importance of TDs in the wins of RDA & Benson
- the fact that Conor had never proven to have the cardio or discipline of a Benson or RDA, with respect to implementing a gameplan across a high-intensity championship distance
- the fact that power at 145lbs perhaps wouldnt translate into power at 170lbs
- that even an underprepared short-notice Nate Diaz is still fit and has cardio
- that McGregor's chin and heart were untested at this sort of level (and failed him badly in the fight as it turned out)


I was very happy to be so wrong, believe me.

War Diaz.