Elections Trump for POTUS mega thread

Strychnine said:
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What I don't get about all the Trump mockery is that he's favored in the betting markets. Now, I don't think he'll win. But if Kamala is such a lock and him and his supporters are so sad, pathetic, and desperate like you say they are, why aren't the odds like 88-12% in Kamala's favor?

What does Vegas know that geniuses like you don't?
 
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mommas homeboy said:
What I don't get about all the Trump mockery is that he's favored in the betting markets. Now, I don't think he'll win. But if Kamala is such a lock and him and his supporters are so sad, pathetic, and desperate like you say they are, why aren't the odds like 88-12% in Kamala's favor?

What does Vegas know that geniuses like you don't?
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Is it really Las Vegas though or is it Polymarket? Because if it's Polymarket, U.S. citizens/residents can't use it. Also, looking at how foreign assets (Russia) took an active hand in Trump's last election, it's not beyond the pale for them to put a thumb on the scale in favor of their favored candidate.
 
Strychnine said:
Is it really Las Vegas though or is it Polymarket? Because if it's Polymarket, U.S. citizens/residents can't use it. Also, looking at how foreign assets (Russia) took an active hand in Trump's last election, it's not beyond the pale for them to put a thumb on the scale in favor of their favored candidate.
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Polymarket and realclearpolling are basically identical at this point. 59-41 in Trump's favor.

It just seems strange that everyone is so convinced he'll lose, with the glaring exception of Vegas and betting markets. Not only that, but he's slightly ahead in the aggregate of polls. I really don't know. Maybe it's a lot like 2022. Like they say, "Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned".

The abortion thing is why I think Kamala will win. The right to have unprotected sex, knowing abortion is an option if the woman gets pregnant, is likely the most important issue in these elections.
 
mommas homeboy said:
Polymarket and realclearpolling are basically identical at this point. 59-41 in Trump's favor.

It just seems strange that everyone is so convinced he'll lose, with the glaring exception of Vegas and betting markets. Not only that, but he's slightly ahead in the aggregate of polls. I really don't know. Maybe it's a lot like 2022. Like they say, "Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned".

The abortion thing is why I think Kamala will win. The right to have unprotected sex, knowing abortion is an option if the woman gets pregnant, is likely the most important issue in these elections.
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I think you overestimate the desire normal women have to kill their own babies.
 


Don't be THAT guy... Just don't do it.
 
mommas homeboy said:
What does Vegas know that geniuses like you don't?
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Vegas doesn't know anything. This is how basic bookmaking works. Trump being the odds favorite only means that Vegas has adjusted the payouts based on how much money is being placed on Trump.

The betting odds being for trump just means that more people are putting money on him. So all it can really tell you is that people who are willing to place bets in Vegas, are more willing to bet on trump.
 
Love Rogan, he's a legend in the MMA game, but endorsing Trump isn't going to swing many voters Trump didn't already have.

The "Bro" vote are already what makes up Trump's voting bloc. It would've been even slightly more impactful if he showed up on stage with Trump, a twitter endorsement isn't going to do much this late sadly for the Trump Campaign IMO.

Still going with my Harris 292(PA/MI/WI/NC/NV) - 246 Trump(GA/AZ) prediction.
 
Darkballs said:
Vegas doesn't know anything. This is how basic bookmaking works. Trump being the odds favorite only means that Vegas has adjusted the payouts based on how much money is being placed on Trump.

The betting odds being for trump just means that more people are putting money on him. So all it can really tell you is that people who are willing to place bets in Vegas, are more willing to bet on trump.
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And it's not "Vegas" anyway, because they don't take action on it AFAIK. Offshore books do. Americans can now legally "bet" on the result but to get around the laws it's Robinhood selling futures "contracts" on both.

A couple things:

The $ bet on the election results can matter. It's been a very good past indicator of the winner. It shouldn't be dismissed as irrelevant or inconsequential.
And while Trump yes is still favored, the markets have shifted in the past few days and the betting lines have tightened a lot. The markets now see it as extremely close, with Trump as a VERY slight favorite.
 
Lol, Elon Musk is a 90 IQ individual who has convinced his 70 IQ fanboys that he is a genius... And they are too stupid to tell the difference.
 
www.independent.co.uk

Trump tells people to vote on January 5 – and social media users all make same joke

‘He mixed up his coup date and the election date,’ one X user quipped
www.independent.co.uk www.independent.co.uk
Donnie’s dementia has been turned up to a 10 the last couple weeks. He tells the crowd to make sure they vote on Jan 5th. If he wins he will have 4 years like Reagan’s last two but we won’t have to worry about Melania running the country like Nancy did, it will be Vance . I’m bet he does not add tariffs to couches or eye liner
 
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mkess101 said:
And it's not "Vegas" anyway, because they don't take action on it AFAIK. Offshore books do. Americans can now legally "bet" on the result but to get around the laws it's Robinhood selling futures "contracts" on both.

A couple things:

The $ bet on the election results can matter. It's been a very good past indicator of the winner. It shouldn't be dismissed as irrelevant or inconsequential.
And while Trump yes is still favored, the markets have shifted in the past few days and the betting lines have tightened a lot. The markets now see it as extremely close, with Trump as a VERY slight favorite.
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Yeah every swing state have young voters way over performing in early voting. Then the Seltzer poll having Kamala ahead in Iowa has adjusted the betting market.
On Election Day in 2020 both Trump and Biden were the favorite on the same day. Line moved heavy both ways
 
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