Elections Trump for POTUS mega thread

Err said:
The poll aggregates have both of them ahead in different combinations of swing states. Nothing I’ve seen has her up in all of them.
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Have you seen any that have either candidate's lead exceeding the margin of error? I haven't. Isn't that odd? I don't think the polls are worth a damn.
 
Barteh said:
This is incorrect. Trump is up in every single swing state. The betting markets probably take into account as well that ALL polls in 2020 underestimated Trump.

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Who funds real clear politics?

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Rob Battisti said:
In aggregate, Trump is up but it’s pretty tight.
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I’m guessing that’s based off of RCP? I typically don’t take any of the aggregates at face value, RCP cherry picks polls that over sample right and 538 and 270 to win do the opposite. I think the actual number is somewhere in the middle, likely a little below what 270 to win has.
 
Err said:
I’m guessing that’s based off of RCP? I typically don’t take any of the aggregates at face value, RCP cherry picks polls that over sample right and 538 and 270 to win do the opposite. I think the actual number is somewhere in the middle, likely a little below what 270 to win has.
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What do you mean cherry pick in this example? From what I saw, RCP just takes the 5 most recent polls and averages them out.
 
538 has a UI which is essentially unusable. Either way, 538, 270 and RCP aren’t polling themselves. They are just reporting the polling.

Polling has Trump slightly ahead but is very close overall.

Georgia NC and Pennsylvania go Red and it’s all over.
 
Rob Battisti said:
What do you mean cherry pick in this example? From what I saw, RCP just takes the 5 most recent polls and averages them out.
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They deliberately compile polling data from pollsters who fit whatever their political narrative is. All of the aggregate polls do this, if they didn’t they would all have the same numbers.
 
Err said:
They deliberately compile polling data from pollsters who fit whatever their political narrative is. All of the aggregate polls do this, otherwise all of them would have the same numbers.
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Not necessarily. The difference is from timing perspective. It’s not like their vastly different anyway.


I think RCP does it the last 5 polls versus 270 does it with more than that. I’ll double check.

Unless there are other major polls you can show are deliberately withheld from their aggregates?
 
Barteh said:
Completely irrelevant, it's just an overview of a bunch of polls. They don't fund the polls themselves.
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It's not irrelevant because they push right wing narratives and they've been open about leaning right.

They also bought into the red wave tsunami bullshit in 2022 and tend to lean more Republican than other aggregators, which is why you are using it lol.
 
Rob Battisti said:
Umm you do realize they are just showing the polls from various other outlets?
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Sure. But I also realize that they include really poorly constructed polls in their aggregate and lean right. In a race as close as this, I would be surprised if they didn't slightly lean Trump in their aggregate.

They also bought into the red wave tsunami shit in 2022 lol
 
Fedor>Cain said:
It's not irrelevant because they push right wing narratives and they've been open about leaning right.

They also bought into the red wave tsunami bullshit in 2022 and tend to lean more Republican than other aggregators, which is why you are using it lol.
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Factually incorrect once again. All of the polls they're showing were off in favor of the dems in 2016 and 2020. Quinnipac, CNN and some of the ones that were off the worst in 2020 are shown on RCP.

If the polls are off even half as much as 4 years ago Trump's gonna sweep every single swing state and win the popular vote.

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Methodologies:

270: The average includes all polls within seven days of the date of the most recent poll, limited to one poll from any source. If there are fewer than five, the window is expanded to 30 days or five polls, whichever comes first. In the latter scenario, if there are multiple qualifying polls on the same calendar date as the oldest poll used, those will also be included.

RCP: harder to find I’ll have to report back
 
Fedor>Cain said:
Sure. But I also realize that they include really poorly constructed polls in their aggregate and lean right. In a race as close as this, I would be surprised if they didn't slightly lean Trump in their aggregate.

They also bought into the red wave tsunami shit in 2022 lol
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Which polls are you referring to and which are withheld from other aggregators?
 
Rob Battisti said:
Not necessarily. The difference is from timing perspective. It’s not like their vastly different anyway.


I think RCP does it the last 5 polls versus 270 does it with more than that. I’ll double check.

Unless there are other major polls you can show are deliberately withheld from their aggregates?
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I’m not going to do a deep dive at the moment, but from the quick look I just did, 270 updated today, and some of their polls have different data, for example their TIPP poll has Kamala up +3 and RCPs has her up +2. It doesn’t look like 270 is using Rasmussen as a source either.
 
Barteh said:
Factually incorrect once again. All of the polls they're showing were off in favor of the dems in 2016 and 2020. Quinnipac, CNN and some of the ones that were off the worst in 2020 are shown on RCP.

If the polls are off even half as much as 4 years ago Trump's gonna sweep every single swing state and win the popular vote.

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It's not factually incorrect lmao. You are completely ignoring that they were dead wrong with their polling in the 2022 mid terms and have been skewing more right in recent years.

You can believe what you want, but the people who run the site openly talk about being conservative and their discourse is more and more associated with the right.

Nobody will argue that polling was off for the 2016 & 2020 election cycles.

Relying on old data and methodology is what got pollsters and aggregators out of whack in the first place. I'll gladly admit I'm wrong if what you are posting is accurate in 2024.
 
Rob Battisti said:
Methodologies:

270: The average includes all polls within seven days of the date of the most recent poll, limited to one poll from any source. If there are fewer than five, the window is expanded to 30 days or five polls, whichever comes first. In the latter scenario, if there are multiple qualifying polls on the same calendar date as the oldest poll used, those will also be included.

RCP: harder to find I’ll have to report back
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RCP goes back 2 weeks I think. At least for the national polls it seems to be that way.
 
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