Economy Trump Election Effects on Immigration

[Bob Sagat]

Then there is the fact of why would Republicans get rid of the topic that is very effective in winning them elections.

because importing illegals directly helps bolster votes for Democrats
it was a very hot topic for the entirety of the past 4+ years

 

[avenue94]

I think the thing is Trump seems all about over-promising and under-performing, but being able to appear like he succeeded. If anything I think our immigration issues mainly stem from logistical issues and Trump can't really do any better than those who have tried before. Then there is the fact of why would Republicans get rid of the topic that is very effective in winning them elections.

A lot of people clamoring for deportations also have no idea how hard it is to find 10 million people, let alone forcibly move them thousands of miles. I give it a couple months before Trump realizes this and tries to repurpose funds to ICE since they don't have enough to do anything close to mass deportations.

 

[LeonardoBjj]

They will now all come to Canada , even worst !

Canada braced for migrants as Trump reiterates mass deportation vow​

Police say plans in place to deal with rise in border crossings as US president-elect pledges to remove 11m people

Leyland Cecco in Toronto

Canada is bracing for a surge of migrants to its southern border after Donald Trump doubled down on his pledge to conduct the largest mass deportation in American history.

On Thursday, Trump told NBC News there was “no choice” but to proceed in removing some of the estimated 11 million undocumented people in the United States.


During Trump’s first term in office, tens of thousands of Haitians fled to Canada after he ended temporary protected status for the group (it was later restored). Many passed through the Roxham Road crossing, a rural country road that served as funnel for refugees attempting to safely traverse the world’s longest land border.

That crossing was closed in 2023 after Canada and the US amended the Safe Third Country Agreement, expanding it to cover the entire land border instead of only formal crossings.


The RCMP says it has plans to deal with a fresh increase in crossings that has been “several months” in the making. A spokesperson for the federal police said officers had the “tools and insight” to deal with another increase, including a scenario in which hundreds of people cross every day.

If those crossing claim asylum, the RCMP cannot send them back to the United States. Instead, their claims are entered into a system with an estimated backlog of 250,000 cases. The average processing time for a case is 44 months, a parliamentary committee heard on Thursday.

Experts fear that with formal crossings closed to migrants, desperate families will take increasingly dangerous routes across the 5,500-mile border. In many locations, the terrain and the weather can be deadly.

In January 2022, a family of four – including a baby – died after attempting to cross from Canada to the United States. Police said the group died from the intense cold and punishing winds, where temperatures had dipped to -35C (-31F).

Last year, the bodies of eight people, including two young children and their parents, were discovered on the banks of the St Lawrence river near the Mohawk community of Akwesasne, which spans Quebec, Ontario and New York state.

Both cases involved groups heading from Canada into the US, but migrants heading north face the same challenges, which as winter approaches include sub-zero temperatures, deep snow and frostbite.

In Quebec, the province that absorbed most of the crossing, politicians warned the federal government was unprepared for a repeat of the last Trump administration.


Yves-François Blanchet, leader of the separatist Bloc Québécois party, said Ottawa was “refusing to acknowledge an obvious and very serious situation” and that more resources were needed to anticipate new routes used by human smugglers.

Quebec’s premier, François Legault, told reporters he did not believe the province had the capacity to absorb a significant number of new arrivals, adding that although border security falls under the purview of the federal government, his government would possibly send its own officers to monitor crossings.

Earlier this week, the deputy prime minister, Chrystia Freeland, said her government “absolutely recognize[d] the importance to border security and of controlling our own border, of controlling who comes into Canada and who doesn’t”.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/08/canada-migrants-trump-mass-deportation-plan

 

[LeonardoBjj]

I have some thoughts on the immigration discussion and I wanted to just shout them into the void.

I have a very unique perspective on this issue. I worked at an immigration law firm and in public criminal defense. I voted for Kamala, but do not consider myself a liberal. I'm extremely involved in the immigrant community of my native origin, I know many people who will be personally affected by changes to immigration policy.

1. Democrats are fearmongering/overreacting: there's been a line that has been floated in the past few days since the election result was clear that Trump will drive up mass deportations that will send half the affordable workforce away, prices will skyrocket, Americans will suffer, etc. I don't think this is realistic. I'll be the first to admit that I don't follow Trump's rallies and his speeches very closely. But my understanding of his policy position was that he wants to deport undocumented persons convicted of crimes en masse, at least that this would be his primary focus.

I have represented a lot of people without papers, especially in the criminal defense work. I do not think that undocumented persons are more likely than anyone else in the same socioeconomic groups to commit crimes, I want to be clear on that. In fact, breaking the numbers down with my friends in the industry, I think they may be slightly less likely to do so. However, of those that do commit crimes...we're not talking about your highly industrious citizenry. There is a subset of the undocumented class that works very hard, is very economically productive, and is vital to our workforce. There is a subset of undocumented people who, usually come with lofty goals of supporting their family abroad but either run into issues with substances or issues with assimilating and run with the wrong crowd. There isn't a whole lot of overlap with these subsets. Many in the latter subset struggle to maintain employment, or they are relatively low productivity workers when they are employed. On the other hand, the appear repeatedly in the system, and end up costing the state a non-trivial amount of resources.

There are a lot of statewide laws preventing local LEO from working with ICE, ICE's resources are stretched thin and to be clear, even under Trump 45 they were stretched thin. There will have to be target prioritization, whether Trump likes it or not. Which is to say, even if Trump wanted to deport every illegal immigrant regardless of criminality, which I'm not convinced he does, he will have to focus on deporting only those with records. So I'm really not worried about these "mass deportation waves" having a tremendous economic impact. I think the large underbelly of the economy, the hardworking undocumented worker and his family, will likely go untouched, if for no other reason as a matter of necessity.

2. Trump presidency will be bad for immigration: I am still very concerned about immigration policy under Trump 47. A lot of lip service has been given to wanted legal immigration in the campaign trail. However, the track record shows otherwise. I worked in immigration (not as an attorney) during 45 and although I'm far from a subject matter expert, I know people who are. 45 was a very rough time to be a legal immigrant, particularly in 2019-2020. Especially when it comes to F1, H1B, O1, EB1A, Green Card approvals, these are areas that I think are of tremendous importance to the country's economic prowess and competitiveness.

I do not imagine that they will get better under Trump. I think at the very best case, dream scenario, is that they do not get worse under Trump, than under Biden. And from people in the field, I know they strongly anticipate that it will get worse. These immigrants are the backbone of our country and our economy, and they have tremendous potential to be excellent American citizens. Trump gave a lot of lip service to support for legal immigration. I hope that is reflected in USCIS' policies moving forward.

I've spoken with many legal immigrants. And they are concerned by the actions of undisciplined/unruly undocumented immigrants. I think something that the left often misses is that the victims of crimes committed by illegal immigrants...they're not your wealthy white people. They are usually other poor white, poor hispanic, or poor black people. Thus, they have a more nuanced approach to these issues than "he says he will deport people so I will rage!" If Trump's immigration policy can have the precision to remove only those immigrants who have a record of being a blight on their communities, I think it could end up being very popular and even successful. But if the best and the brightest, engineers, doctors, lawyers, researchers in our universities have to be turned away, perhaps due to some nativist bias. I think that will have very bad downstream effects for American competitiveness in the global economy moving forward.

- Great writen topic my friend.

I think something that the left often misses is that the victims of crimes committed by illegal immigrants...they're not your wealthy white people. They are usually other poor white, poor hispanic, or poor black people.

- I've seen this posted by other sher-bros. But i do agree. People ignore that the unruling criminals will bringdown the value of the place they live. If Trump doies that, and i admite, the thought hasn't even crossed my mind. He will get great aproval, and that probaly would extend to the next republican candidate after Trump!

 

[LeonardoBjj]

Trump seems to be more bark than bite when it comes to immigration. Actual results regarding deportations, border crossings, etc. seemed to be about average for any other president Democrat or Republican during his first term. I foresee little actually being done by him regarding immigration, but the passion he brings to the matter will make people overlook that and people will find any little victory to show he is doing more than others.

- I think biden administration was tougher!

 

[chardog]

I think the thing is Trump seems all about over-promising and under-performing, but being able to appear like he succeeded. If anything I think our immigration issues mainly stem from logistical issues and Trump can't really do any better than those who have tried before. Then there is the fact of why would Republicans get rid of the topic that is very effective in winning them elections.

this would be huge

 

[avenue94]

this would be huge

So we're trying to end birthright citizenship again? I can't wait to see what originalist cartwheels the court can come up with to argue that the birthright citizenship was not intended to apply to anyone born in the US.

 

[kflo]

This was a good post. I think the lack of responses means most here didn't like what you had to say.

The lack of responses is because there’s no TLDR cliffs!

 

[CorninginChristianburg]

So how are you going to assess aptitude for construction, agricultural, and hospitality/service jobs?

I'm getting at two things here:
1. Most of the opposition from the right to immigration isn't driven by economics, it's prejudice. We can talk about how we're going to increase or expedite legal immigration but the GOP has consistently advocated for the opposite.
2. You're advocating for a lot of government economic planning that has largely been ineffective. It doesn't mean it can't be improved, but probably better to let the labor market sort itself out as much as possible (which it does, illegal immigration tends to drop during economic downturns).

See above. You're missing most of the immigration needs for America.

Those are 4 of like...a couple dozen different types of visas that address various industries. In terms of how USCIS adjudicates aptitude? Usually a combination of proof of income, letters of recommendation, and a lottery. Which...I'm never going to be the frontline defender for USCIS but that's been the way things have been for decades down, regardless of the president. Everyone has issues with the system but no one has ever been able to figure out a better way.

 

[avenue94]

Those are 4 of like...a couple dozen different types of visas that address various industries. In terms of how USCIS adjudicates aptitude? Usually a combination of proof of income, letters of recommendation, and a lottery. Which...I'm never going to be the frontline defender for USCIS but that's been the way things have been for decades down, regardless of the president. Everyone has issues with the system but no one has ever been able to figure out a better way.

I mean...American did pretty fantastic under the old system of immigration, ie, open borders. My preference is more or less if you want to come here and aren't an awful human, and you're willing to work and join the civic fabric without most welfare (which most immigrants don't get access too anyways), you're welcomef Just like all of our ancestors. But that's not a mainstream view of the Democratic Party.

 

[Kassitus]

Instead of going by feel look at the numbers from his first term. He deported less than Obama and let in more legals than Obama. If Trump deports a bunch this time it will just be an ego thing. He doesn't care.

 

[CorninginChristianburg]

I mean...American did pretty fantastic under the old system of immigration, ie, open borders. My preference is more or less if you want to come here and aren't an awful human, and you're willing to work and join the civic fabric without most welfare (which most immigrants don't get access too anyways), you're welcomef Just like all of our ancestors. But that's not a mainstream view of the Democratic Party.

I'm not aware of any modern country works that way so...

I'm open to being enlightened of a country that is doing that.

 

[avenue94]

I'm not aware of any modern country works that way so...

I'm open to being enlightened of a country that is doing that.

None come to mind for me. Hence most developed countries are struggling badly with demographic shortfalls and how to maintain current trajectories with a smaller population. The US is unique with regards to its history of immigration, and it's a strength I think a lot of countries would benefit from leaning into. Most of America's history for immigration is open borders.

Do you have any ideas on how to maintain social safety nets with fewer people paying into them and more people tapping them as populations age?

 

[nostradumbass]

Hopefully it causes a migrant crisis in Canada

 

[CorninginChristianburg]

None come to mind for me. Hence most developed countries are struggling badly with demographic shortfalls and how to maintain current trajectories with a smaller population. The US is unique with regards to its history of immigration, and it's a strength I think a lot of countries would benefit from leaning into. Most of America's history for immigration is open borders.

Do you have any ideas on how to maintain social safety nets with fewer people paying into them and more people tapping them as populations age?

I think what you're proposing though is sort of a mismatch. Say we want people who work in granite. I chose granite at random, but you can insert industry, tile, stucco, roofing, electric, etc. We want granite workers because we have a shortage of granite workers in say...Boise. Again, pick your place, could be Portland, Seattle, Las Vegas, I just chose Boise.

20 million prospective workers come across the border without any selection other than self-selection. Without any regulation, what is our assurance other than the law of large numbers that any of them will end up working granite in Boise?

Legal immigration is meant to be the cure. You come with a sponsoring company, and this company says that "Jonny from Ecuador is going to work granite on our project in Boise." And here are Jonny's paystubs and credentials. And that's how we fill gaps in our labor system.

Is it a perfect system? Absolutely not, and no one will defend it as such. But if you let people self-select into the country, you could end up not curing your shortage in granite workers, but now you have a tremendous oversupply of flaggers, and local flaggers can't find a job because someone else is willing to do it under the table for less, etc.

 

[ShadowRun]

Damn it orange man

 

[avenue94]

20 million prospective workers come across the border without any selection other than self-selection. Without any regulation, what is our assurance other than the law of large numbers that any of them will end up working granite in Boise?

Given they have no access to most welfare, they would either find work in that industry or other industries. Otherwise they would leave the country, a pattern we see during economic downturns already. What do you think those 20 million workers are going to do?

Legal immigration is meant to be the cure. You come with a sponsoring company, and this company says that "Jonny from Ecuador is going to work granite on our project in Boise." And here are Jonny's paystubs and credentials. And that's how we fill gaps in our labor system.

That's simply not true when it comes to key industries such as construction or agriculture, which drives down costs for Americans, especially middle class and up.

Is it a perfect system? Absolutely not, and no one will defend it as such. But if you let people self-select into the country, you could end up not curing your shortage in granite workers, but now you have a tremendous oversupply of flaggers, and local flaggers can't find a job because someone else is willing to do it under the table for less, etc.

Except this is largely not true. Americans strongly dislike doing the work that most illegal immigrants do. Or I should say at the price and in the conditions that Americans would do that work for. The actual job losses from illegal immigration aren't much, the heaviest competition for immigrants and native labor is in the aforementioned high skill jobs you alluded to with visas.

Put it this way: where are these hordes of out of work Americans from agriculture and construction? These are the industries that lean on immigration the most, we should expect to see a commensurate number of unemployed Americans.

 

[iwannabeadored]

None come to mind for me. Hence most developed countries are struggling badly with demographic shortfalls and how to maintain current trajectories with a smaller population. The US is unique with regards to its history of immigration, and it's a strength I think a lot of countries would benefit from leaning into. Most of America's history for immigration is open borders.

Do you have any ideas on how to maintain social safety nets with fewer people paying into them and more people tapping them as populations age?

lol middle America is retarded. America thrives because we steal everyone’s best and brightest. People just don’t wanna hear that tho. It’s a nation of immigrants.

Dumbass Stephen miller grandfather immigrated from Poland 100 years ago. lol

 

[avenue94]

lol middle America is retarded. America thrives because we steal everyone’s best and brightest. People just don’t wanna hear that tho. It’s a nation of immigrants.

Dumbass Stephen miller grandfather immigrated from Poland 100 years ago. lol

Yup, that argument kills me. The person who is willing to sacrifice everything for a shot at a better life in America, with no guarantees of success or access to welfare, has a lot of the qualities of being a successful and productive citizen. Some might say they have a startup mentality even...

 

[iwannabeadored]

Let’s be xenophobic as fuck and anti immigration so we can be just like Japan. No growth and aging.

Stagflation